A Becerra-Steyer race in November? It’s possible
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- The chances are slim that Tom Steyer overtakes Steve Hilton, but it is possible, one expert said.
- A Becerra-Steyer face-off would force both candidates to define a vision of California beyond generic liberal ideas.
With just days left to campaign and polls putting him in an unexpectedly strong third place — maybe even second — Tom Steyer is down-not-out. But Riverside’s favorite MAGA sheriff and Republican contender Chad Bianco is almost definitely shoulders-to-the-mat done.
That means there’s no chance of a Republican sweep in this blue state, and suddenly, what has up until now been a pretty dry governor’s primary race has turned into one that has a slim-but-genuine chance at a surprise ending — two Democrats on the November ticket.
“It’s a low probability,” political data guru Paul Mitchell told me, “But there’s always a chance.”
He puts it somewhere under 10%. But stranger things have happened. Spencer Pratt, for instance.
Those of you who have hung on to your ballots like winning lottery tickets, and those who plan on voting in person, will largely decide what happens next: An Xavier Becerra-Steve Hilton top two is a virtual election for Becerra since there just aren’t enough Republican voters in the state to carry a general election. A Becerra-Steyer face-off would force both candidates to define a vision of California beyond generic liberal ideas.
On the cusp of California’s gubernatorial primary, voters are closely split among three candidates to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom, according to a new poll.
Personally, I wouldn’t mind seeing California have that Dem-on-Dem showdown so that voters of all parties (or none) have the chance to pin these would-be leaders down on the details of their policies. So far, this election has been light on the specifics, but the state faces real problems — from a failing healthcare system to gas prices that literally mystify even lawmakers.
Everything changes when a candidate becomes a winner, so maybe it would be good for democracy to have an old-fashioned war of ideas in this moment when the future of California holds so many unknowns.
Is Steyer just a billionaire dilettante trying to buy an office? Is Becerra beholden to the many corporate interests who have funded his campaign? Those are just the top-line questions many voters still have.
“There’s lots of shades of blue,” pointed out Chad Peace of the Independent Voter Project, on a press call to support open primaries. “When we only look at things as, ‘Oh, there’s red and there’s blue,’ we forget that.”
But voters remain nervous, and the ballot is still packed — along with the top three, former Rep. Katie Porter and San José Mayor Matt Mahan are still campaigning, though with falling support.
Voters, Mitchell said, “are really thinking about the implications” of their vote, and perhaps don’t want to throw it away on a candidate they perceive as having no chance. That’s why the new polls showing Steyer as a contender have the potential of stirring up momentum, especially for voters who originally saw themselves filling in the bubble for one of those candidates on the decline.
Recent polls have put Steyer in a near-dead-heat with Republican front-runner Hilton, both hovering slightly above or below 20%. Becerra, the former California attorney general and a former Biden Cabinet secretary, leads them both by a few points, especially among Latino voters. As my colleague Gustavo Arellano has pointed out, Becerra would be the state’s second Latino governor, after Romualdo Pacheco, who held the office for 10 months in 1875.
“A Dem-Dem race, maybe we’ll get more people involved, because it’s going to be a harder fight, you know?” Diane McClure told me. She’s a board member of the California Nurses Assn., which endorsed Steyer early — in large part because he supports a plan for single-payer health insurance, which that union has long fought for.
McClure, of course, would love to see Steyer take the top spot in that easy-win scenario against Hilton, though that seems doubtful. But a Steyer-Becerra race?
“Maybe it’s a good thing, maybe it’ll wake some people up,” she said.
For his part, Steyer is staying the course. At a Sacramento stop Friday, he bounded around chatting with about four dozen mostly union supporters, wearing trademark Nikes, this time a vintage pair with a tartan plaid swoop.
“Four days,” Steyer said when he finally took the microphone. “I really need you to stand with me. But let me say this: you stand with me, I stand with you.”
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Unlike his debate performances, Steyer is passionate, and, though it seems unlikely based on his television appearances, has an amiable charisma dotted with a fair amount of light profanity.
“Make a decent living, buy a house, have a great education for your kids, and retire,” he said. “That’s what we’re trying to build here. We can easily do that. When people say that’s not possible, bull—, that’s bull—.”
It was enough to sway Ricky Carter, one of the few non-union members in the room, who was invited because his wife, Barbara, was on a prayer chain with another invitee. An older Black man originally from South Los Angeles, Carter represents a demographic where Steyer has growing popularity.
“I believe him. He got it right in here,” he said, pounding a fist over his heart. “It ain’t about no color, creed and race. ... It’s about the people.”
Indeed, elections are about the people, though it doesn’t always feel like it. But suddenly, this one does.
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Ideas expressed in the piece
The article argues that Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco’s collapse in the polls has effectively ended any prospect of a Republican sweep in California’s gubernatorial race, turning what had been a sleepy primary into a volatile contest where two Democrats on the November ballot — Xavier Becerra and Tom Steyer — has become a slim but genuine possibility, even if political analyst Paul Mitchell pegs it at under 10%.[1][3]
It contends that a Becerra–Steve Hilton top-two outcome would amount to a “virtual election” for Becerra, given the state’s overwhelming Democratic voter registration, whereas a Becerra–Steyer matchup would compel both Democrats to articulate detailed, contrasting visions for California rather than rely on broad liberal themes.[1][2]
The piece suggests that a Democrat-on-Democrat general election could be “good for democracy,” framing it as a chance for an “old-fashioned war of ideas” at a time when the state faces serious challenges — including a strained healthcare system and confusingly high gas prices — and when the campaign so far has been light on policy specifics.
It emphasizes unresolved questions that a Becerra–Steyer race could force into the open, including whether Steyer is a billionaire dilettante trying to buy office, and whether Becerra is too beholden to corporate interests that have bankrolled the campaign, arguing that voters deserve clearer answers.
Drawing on the “shades of blue” concept articulated by independent-primary advocates, the article maintains that reducing politics to a simple red-versus-blue binary masks significant ideological diversity within the Democratic electorate, and that a Dem–Dem showdown would highlight those internal differences rather than sideline them.
It highlights support for Steyer from the California Nurses Association, which backed the candidate early because of a longstanding push for single-payer health care, and suggests that a Becerra–Steyer race would put big structural issues like healthcare financing at the center of the campaign, rather than on the margins.
The article portrays late-breaking polls that show Steyer in a tight cluster with Becerra and Hilton as potentially catalytic, arguing that voters who might have viewed a Steyer vote as “wasted” could now be energized to back a candidate with visible momentum, especially as other Democrats such as Katie Porter and Matt Mahan lose ground.[1][3][4]
It underscores Steyer’s on-the-ground appeal, describing a personable, profanity-laced stump style and noting that union members and Black voters are increasingly receptive, aligning with polling that shows Steyer gaining particular strength among Black voters while Becerra leads among Latinos.[1]
By closing with the story of a skeptical voter who leaves a Steyer event convinced the candidate “got it right in here,” the article reinforces the view that this race has shifted from an insider contest to one that suddenly feels more participatory and people-centered, with a Becerra–Steyer November seen as the clearest path to sustaining that energy.
Different views on the topic
Other analyses stress that, despite Steyer’s surge, the most likely outcome remains a Becerra–Hilton matchup, not a two-Democrat November, pointing to polls that place Becerra clearly in first and Hilton often ahead of Steyer, with relatively few undecided voters left to reshuffle the field.[1][2][3][5]
Coverage of recent polling by UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies notes that Becerra leads among likely voters statewide and holds an 11-point advantage over Steyer among Democrats, as well as a sizable edge among Latino voters, while Hilton dominates Republican voters — a configuration that many pollsters interpret as structurally favoring a conventional Democrat-versus-Republican general election rather than a Becerra–Steyer duel.[1][3]
A CalMatters commentary lays out three plausible top-two scenarios — Becerra–Hilton, Hilton–Steyer, or Becerra–Steyer — but explicitly labels Becerra–Hilton as “the most likely” outcome, treating a two-Democrat November as the least likely path given current numbers and California’s partisan landscape.[2]
That commentary further argues that, because of the state’s heavily Democratic registration advantage, Hilton’s only realistic path to victory in November would be a catastrophic collapse by the Democratic nominee, reinforcing the idea that the central drama is whether Hilton or Steyer finishes second — not whether a Democrat-on-Democrat race is desirable as a “war of ideas.”[2]
Pollsters quoted in news coverage emphasize uncertainty driven by low turnout and California’s “jungle primary” system, but they caution against overinterpreting late shifts, pointing out that only about 7% of voters remain undecided, which limits how much Steyer’s momentum can realistically reorder the standings in the final days.[1][3]
A Politico report describes Becerra as having “opened a lead” and being “in position to draw a Republican matchup in November,” reflecting a widely held expectation among strategists that the general election will likely feature a traditional partisan contrast between Becerra and Hilton rather than an intra-Democratic contest.[5]
While the Steyer campaign has circulated internal polling that casts the race as a three-way fight among Becerra, Hilton and Steyer, that same release underscores that Republican Bianco has collapsed and that Hilton still leads, implicitly conceding that Steyer must overtake not just a weakened Republican but also a well-established Democrat within a very short window.[4]
Some election analysts quoted in news coverage argue that voter confusion and hesitation this year stem in part from the top-two primary system itself, which already makes it difficult for many to gauge strategic choices; from that vantage point, a Democrat-on-Democrat November is viewed less as a democratic ideal and more as a byproduct of a structural change that often muddles, rather than clarifies, options for Republicans and some independents.[1][2]
Additionally, polling data showing Becerra with broad demographic strength — including leads among women and Latinos — and Hilton’s firm hold on the Republican base has led some observers to suggest that treating a Becerra–Steyer matchup as a central scenario risks overstating Steyer’s viability and understating how much of the electorate still prefers a standard partisan contest in November.[1][3][5]
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