Oscar power rankings: Who’s in, who’s out and who’s on the bubble for best actress
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Just bought a “Marty Supreme” Wheaties box for the Timothée zealot on my Christmas list.
Will it truly be the “breakfast of champions” come Oscars time? Perhaps. Personally, I’m sticking with my “One Battle After Another” drink cooler as the season’s top tie-in.
A few small beers? Don’t mind if I do.
I’m Glenn Whipp, columnist for the Los Angeles Times and host of The Envelope newsletter. It’s time to give the women the spotlight with a set of power rankings for lead actress. What’s your favorite performance from the last year?
1. Jessie Buckley, ‘Hamnet’
Buckley has been the presumed front-runner in this category since “Hamnet” wrecked audiences at its Telluride premiere. That status hasn’t changed, despite critics groups ignoring her emotional performance. (“Wet and wild” is how Times film critic Amy Nicholson described Buckley’s turn as Shakespeare’s grieving wife.) Critics are always going to pivot away from an obvious choice, so this is less a snub and more a case of advocating for work that’s a bit less hyped. Buckley’s powerful performance is the real deal, and that final scene of healing at the Globe cracks audiences’ hearts in two. If you’re in her camp, don’t panic. She’s fine.
2. Rose Byrne, ‘If I Had Legs I’d Kick You’
Byrne won lead honors from the Los Angeles and New York film critics and the National Board of Review, the first time that trifecta has happened since Helen Mirren ran the table for “The Queen” in 2006. Mirren was playing royalty (and, for some cineastes, is herself royalty), while Byrne is showcased in an exhausting movie about a woman suffocated by motherhood. So let’s not get carried away. But it still bodes well. Byrne’s performance is the movie, much like “Blue Moon” revolves around Ethan Hawke. She will be impossible to ignore.
3. Renate Reinsve, ‘Sentimental Value’
You could make a case that Stellan Skarsgård’s character, a legendary filmmaker trying to mount a comeback with his talented actor daughter, is the focal point of “Sentimental Value.” But Skarsgård is being campaigned in supporting, and Reinsve, playing the daughter chafing at a family reunion, is in lead. Reinsve is sublime, superbly attuned to her character’s conflicted emotions.
There is the feeling, though, that, good as she is, it’s not quite the level of “The Worst Person in the World,” her last collaboration with filmmaker Joachim Trier. Perhaps that’s an unfair comparison, as that was one of the decade’s great lead turns. But the thought still lingers.
4. Chase Infiniti, ‘One Battle After Another’
Is Infiniti a lead in “One Battle”? The story is about how the past comes to collect for her character, Willa, and how Willa, quite memorably, settles all accounts due in a spectacular fashion. So, sure, why not put her in lead and clear the decks in supporting for co-stars Teyana Taylor and Regina Hall? Though some question the placement, no one takes issue with the performance. And with “One Battle” firmly fixed as the movie to beat this year, everyone associated with it will see their prospects rise.
5. Amanda Seyfried, ‘The Testament of Ann Lee’
Searchlight acquired Mona Fastvold’s musical drama about the titular founder of the American Shaker movement on the last day of September, late to launch a campaign for a genuinely weird movie. But with the studio’s other contenders — “Is This Thing On?” and “Rental Family” — failing with voters, Searchlight has nothing to do but focus on “Ann Lee” and its lead. Seyfried is dazzling in the fervor she brings to the character and the film’s wild, herky-jerky song-and-dance sequences. Like Byrne, she owns the movie.
6. Cynthia Erivo, ‘Wicked: For Good’
Keeping with the theme ... is this a lead turn? The first “Wicked” was most definitely Elphaba’s story, and Erivo was magnificent as the outcast journeying to Oz and self-discovery. In “For Good,” the character recedes a bit, though I’d argue she still belongs in the lead category — as does her co-star Ariana Grande. For those keeping track of these things, the screen time breakdown in “For Good” shakes out with Erivo at about 50 minutes and Grande close to 49, leaving about a fifth of the movie absent of at least one of the two characters (and pretty much unwatchable).
The bigger hurdle for Erivo might be voters’ natural impulse to reward something different and not a performance they lauded just last year. Only six actors have earned nominations for playing the same character twice, and with the exception of Bing Crosby, there was always a pretty good gap between nods. Perhaps the fact that “For Good” is less a sequel and more of a continuation will help her cause. That and her voice.
7. Emma Stone, ‘Bugonia’
Stone’s latest collaboration with Yorgos Lanthimos wasn’t a hit on the level of “Poor Things,” but it’s still likely to move more tickets than “Hamnet,” “Sentimental Value,” “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” and “The Testament of Ann Lee.” Stone showed up with her usual fearless commitment to realizing Lanthimos’ curdled misanthropy, and perhaps it’s unwise to underestimate how much people (and Oscar voters) enjoy their collaborations. Would you shave your head to see a movie early? Dozens did for “Bugonia.”
8. Kate Hudson, ‘Song Sung Blue’
“Song Sung Blue,” a sincere heart-warmer about a husband-wife Neil Diamond tribute act, opens on Christmas. Maybe it’ll be something of a hit. Maybe it will remind everyone just how winning Hudson can be in the right role. Maybe voters will turn on their heartlight and let it shine wherever they go.
The back end of this category is wide open, and it’s not unreasonable to think that Hudson rides a comeback (was she ever really gone?), career-achievement narrative to her first nomination since her spectacular arrival a quarter-century ago (!) in “Almost Famous.”
