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“Sentimental Value” romped in the nominations with nine, but not only is it not a consensus pick in Round 4; it’s only two points ahead of “The Secret Agent” in the BuzzMeter’s closest race.
Noting its awards-season success in Europe and many Oscar noms, Anne Thompson says of “Sentimental,” “In other words, more people have seen this film than the other contenders.”
“As much as I’m hoping Jafar Panahi’s subversive revenge film ‘It Was Just an Accident’ can pull out the win,” writes Robert Daniels, “I think [it’s] between ‘Sentimental Value’ and ‘The Secret Agent.’ ” Amy Nicholson says, “My personal favorite, ‘Sirāt,’ won’t win … if it did, it would be a shocker as big as that moment in the script.”
The panel correctly predicted the field of five nominees in Round 3, with more than one panelist citing the academy’s previous lack of recognition of Korean master Park Chan-wook’s work as the reason to pick Tunisia’s heart-rending “The Voice of Hind Rajab” to take a slot.
Follow along throughout the season as our expert panel predicts the nominees and then the winners of the 2026 Oscars.
1. “Sentimental Value” (Norway)
2. “The Secret Agent” (Brazil)
3. “It Was Just an Accident” (France)
4. “Sirāt” (Spain)
5. “The Voice of Hind Rajab” (Tunisia)
RogerEbert.com
Robert Daniels
1. “Sentimental Value” (Norway)
2. “The Secret Agent” (Brazil)
3. “It Was Just an Accident” (France)
4. “Sirāt” (Spain)
5. “The Voice of Hind Rajab” (Tunisia)
“As much as I’m hoping Jafar Panahi’s subversive revenge film ‘It Was Just an Accident’ can pull out the win — especially after Iran arrested Panahi’s co-writer and fellow nominee in original screenplay, Mehdi Mahmoudian, for actions against the regime — I think this category is between ‘Sentimental Value’ and ‘The Secret Agent.’ ”
Turner Classic Movies
Dave Karger
1. “Sentimental Value” (Norway)
2. “The Secret Agent” (Brazil)
3. “It Was Just an Accident” (France)
4. “Sirāt” (Spain)
5. “The Voice of Hind Rajab” (Tunisia)
“This seems like a battle between the two entries also nominated for best picture: ‘The Secret Agent’ and ‘Sentimental Value.’ With a larger overall nominations tally (including a phenomenal four in the acting categories), ‘Sentimental Value’ has the edge. But I’m also thrilled that the shocking ‘Sirāt’ made the cut.”
Los Angeles Times
Amy Nicholson
1. “The Secret Agent” (Brazil)
2. “Sentimental Value” (Norway)
3. “It Was Just an Accident” (France)
4. “Sirāt” (Spain)
5. “The Voice of Hind Rajab” (Tunisia)
“My personal favorite, ‘Sirāt,’ won’t win this. But if it did, it would be a shocker as big as that moment in the script.”
IndieWire
Anne Thompson
1. “Sentimental Value” (Norway)
2. “The Secret Agent” (Brazil)
3. “Sirāt” (Spain)
4. “The Voice of Hind Rajab” (Tunisia)
5. “It Was Just an Accident” (France)
“Joachim Trier’s Cannes prizewinner ‘Sentimental Value’ (Norway) scored nine Oscar nominations, including four acting nods, and swept the European film awards. In other words, more people have seen this film than the other contenders in this category.”
Tribune News Service
Katie Walsh
1. “The Secret Agent” (Brazil)
2. “Sentimental Value” (Norway)
3. “It Was Just an Accident” (France)
4. “Sirāt” (Spain)
5. “The Voice of Hind Rajab” (Tunisia)
“Boosted by a best picture nom, a Globes win for Wagner Moura and the indomitable Brazilian delegation, I predict ‘The Secret Agent’ will take international feature, though ‘Sentimental Value’ is tough to beat with the academy, which loves movies about making movies.”
Los Angeles Times
Glenn Whipp
1. “Sentimental Value” (Norway)
2. “The Secret Agent” (Brazil)
3. “It Was Just an Accident” (France)
4. “Sirāt” (Spain)
5. “The Voice of Hind Rajab” (Tunisia)
“In a stacked category featuring two movies nominated for best picture, it’s hard to pick against ‘Sentimental Value,’ which earned nine nods overall, including four for its cast.”
