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In what the panel regards as a race between two blazingly memorable performances, Taylor has emerged as the consensus pick, with a considerable 10-point lead over Madigan.
Dave Karger writes, “Madigan is simply unforgettable as Aunt Gladys in ‘Weapons’ and is an industry favorite, but being the only nominee from one’s film is rarely a great position.”
Meanwhile, says Amy Nicholson, “The only false note in Teyana Taylor’s ‘One Battle’ performance is the con job that she could make herself invisible by putting on a hat.” Glenn Whipp says, despite Taylor’s relatively brief appearance, she “makes an outsized impression, anchoring the movie with her fierce turn.”
Noting that, while Black women have struggled to win as lead actress or director, they’ve had considerable success in this category, Robert Daniels says Taylor “deserves to win. She makes the most of every moment, leaving a powerful resonance when she goes away.”
Follow along throughout the season as our expert panel predicts the nominees and then the winners of the 2026 Oscars.
1. Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another”
2. Amy Madigan, “Weapons”
3. Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners”
T4. Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value”
T4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value”
RogerEbert.com
Robert Daniels
1. Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another”
2. Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners”
3. Amy Madigan, “Weapons”
4. Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value”
5. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value”
“Black women have struggled for academy recognition: Only one has won lead actress (Halle Berry); none has been nominated for director. Tellingly, nine of the last 19 supporting winners have been Black or Afro-Latina. All that aside, Taylor deserves to win. She makes the most of every moment, leaving a powerful resonance when she goes away.”
Turner Classic Movies
Dave Karger
1. Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another”
2. Amy Madigan, “Weapons”
3. Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners”
4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value”
5. Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value”
“Two true scene-stealers are at the forefront. Madigan is simply unforgettable as Aunt Gladys in ‘Weapons’ and is an industry favorite, but being the only nominee from one’s film is rarely a great position. Even with limited screen time, Taylor’s blazing turn in ‘One Battle’ could prove too strong to ignore.”
Los Angeles Times
Amy Nicholson
1. Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another”
2. Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value”
3. Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners”
4. Amy Madigan, “Weapons”
5. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value”
“The only false note in Teyana Taylor’s ‘One Battle’ performance is the con job that she could make herself invisible by putting on a hat. It’s an iconic role — and she’ll give an equally iconic speech.”
IndieWire
Anne Thompson
1. Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another”
2. Amy Madigan, “Weapons”
3. Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners”
4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value”
5. Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value”
“Teyana Taylor, who is titanic (and iconic) in just a few scenes in ‘One Battle After Another,’ has been winning hearts and minds on the awards circuit. Veteran Amy Madigan took the Critics Choice Award as Aunt Gladys in horror hit ‘Weapons.’ So far, the two ‘Sentimental Value’ supporting candidates are splitting the vote.”
Tribune News Service
Katie Walsh
1. Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another”
2. Amy Madigan, “Weapons”
3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value”
4. Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value”
5. Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners”
“This also feels sewn up for the formidable Teyana Taylor post-Globes, though it’s a two-horse race with Amy Madigan taking the Critics Choice Award. Taylor’s emotional speeches and stellar carpet looks have minted her star, though.”
Los Angeles Times
Glenn Whipp
1. Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another”
2. Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners”
3. Amy Madigan, “Weapons”
4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value”
5. Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value”
“Teyana Taylor is only in the opening half hour of ‘One Battle After Another’ (aside from a tender voiceover reading at the end), but she makes an outsized impression, anchoring the movie with her fierce turn as Perfidia Beverly Hills.”
