-
Click here to listen to this article - Share via
See more from the L.A. Times in Google Search. Set us as preferred
The panel completely nailed the field of five in Round 3 with their final pre-nominations predictions. Then, they had Chalamet prevailing over DiCaprio in a close race. Now, they believe the gap has widened between those two — but Chalamet is not a consensus pick.
Robert Daniels sees enough arguments against each nominee to take a flyer: “My gut says Hawke pulls out a ‘They’re due’ win.” (Dave Karger says, “Hawke seems to be mounting a late surge with his first nomination in this category.”)
But representing the rest of the panel’s confidence in Chalamet, Glenn Whipp writes, “Sure, Chalamet is young, barely 30, and voters prefer their lead actor winners to have a little life experience. But Chalamet has built an impeccable résumé.” Amy Nicholson warns, “If Timothée Chalamet doesn’t win this, he’ll smash a ping-pong paddle over his knee.”
Fun fact, courtesy of Daniels: Only one lead actor has won without his film also earning a best picture nomination since that field expanded to 10 — Brendan Fraser of “The Whale.” The only nominee this time whose film isn’t also nominated? Daniels’ upset pick, Hawke.
Follow along throughout the season as our expert panel predicts the nominees and then the winners of the 2026 Oscars.
1. Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”
3. Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent”
T4. Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon”
T4. Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”
RogerEbert.com
Robert Daniels
1. Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon”
2. Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”
3. Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent”
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”
5. Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”
“The sensible choice is Chalamet, despite academy apprehensiveness at awarding young actors. Jordan might be in the same boat. DiCaprio’s ‘Revenant’ win might be too recent. Hawke isn’t in a best picture nominee (only one such actor since the expansion to 10 has won — Brendan Fraser). Moura missed BAFTA and SAG nods. My gut says Hawke pulls out a ‘They’re due’ win.”
Turner Classic Movies
Dave Karger
1. Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”
2. Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon”
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”
4. Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”
5. Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent”
“Hawke seems to be mounting a late surge with his first nomination in this category. But as James Stewart won for ‘The Philadelphia Story’ a year after losing for ‘Mr. Smith Goes to Washington,’ I think Chalamet will take it home a year after coming close for ‘A Complete Unknown.’ ”
Los Angeles Times
Amy Nicholson
1. Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”
2. Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent”
3. Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”
4. Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon”
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”
“If Timothée Chalamet doesn’t win this, he’ll smash a ping-pong paddle over his knee. He deserves this one, but I almost want him to lose so he’ll continue flogging himself to do great work.”
IndieWire
Anne Thompson
1. Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”
2. Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”
4. Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent”
5. Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon”
“Three dominate: Critics Choice and comedy Globe winner Chalamet, just 30, may finally win his first Oscar for his wild and crazy ping-pong player, his ‘Wolf of Wall Street.’ DiCaprio could grab his second for his slouchy drug-hazed comedy role. And Jordan plays impeccably dressed, charismatic twin gangsters fending off vampires.”
Tribune News Service
Katie Walsh
1. Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”
3. Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent”
4. Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon”
5. Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”
“The swell seems to be coalescing around young Chalamet — his Gen Z-courting ‘Marty Supreme’ promo cycle has given way to sincere humility and gratitude at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards. It feels like he wants it more than Leonardo DiCaprio, and this may be his year.”
Los Angeles Times
Glenn Whipp
1. Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”
3. Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent”
4. Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”
5. Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon”
“Sure, Timothée Chalamet is young, barely 30, and voters prefer their lead actor winners to have a little life experience. But Chalamet has built an impeccable résumé, and his unhinged performance as the title character in a popular movie should finally earn him an Oscar.”
