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In Round 3, only five supporting actors received votes; they are the gentlemen populating the nominations field. In Round 4, the panel sees this as the second-toughest race to call, with Skarsgård currently ahead of Del Toro. The former is a respected veteran who has never been nominated, while the latter is a previous winner, both perceived edges for the Swedish actor.
“The most wide-open category of the evening probably goes to Stellan Skarsgård, even if SAG-AFTRA voters ignored him,” writes Glenn Whipp. “Skarsgård’s omission from the Actor Awards (along with everyone else from ‘Sentimental Value’) is definitely a chink in his armor,” says Dave Karger, but notes that “One Battle” castmates Penn and Del Toro may split the vote, which could help Skarsgård.
As to the non-Del Toro or Skarsgård nominees, Amy Nicholson asks, “Anyone else confounded by the lack of momentum behind Sean Penn’s turn as the lickspittle Col. Lockjaw?” And Robert Daniels says, “In a just world, [Lindo would] already have an Oscar.”
Follow along throughout the season as our expert panel predicts the nominees and then the winners of the 2026 Oscars.
1. Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value”
2. Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another”
3. Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein”
4. Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”
5. Delroy Lindo, “Sinners”
RogerEbert.com
Robert Daniels
1. Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another”
2. Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value”
3. Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein”
4. Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”
5. Delroy Lindo, “Sinners”
“I’ve wavered on Skarsgård, especially when he missed at the Actor Awards. But that Globes win shot him back into pole position. On top of being due, ‘Sentimental Value’ is the type of movie about show business the academy gravitates toward. I’m happy Lindo was nominated. In a just world, he’d already have an Oscar.”
Turner Classic Movies
Dave Karger
1. Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value”
2. Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another”
3. Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein”
4. Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”
5. Delroy Lindo, “Sinners”
“Skarsgård’s omission from the Actor Awards (along with everyone else from ‘Sentimental Value’) is definitely a chink in his armor. But with the two co-stars of ‘One Battle After Another’ in danger of splitting the vote, the veteran performer still seems the likeliest bet.”
Los Angeles Times
Amy Nicholson
1. Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value”
2. Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another”
3. Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein”
4. Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”
5. Delroy Lindo, “Sinners”
“Love for Stellan Skarsgård aside, these nominees are all deserving in the most equally matched category of the night. Anyone else confounded by the lack of momentum behind Sean Penn’s turn as the lickspittle Col. Lockjaw?”
IndieWire
Anne Thompson
1. Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value”
2. Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another”
3. Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”
4. Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein”
5. Delroy Lindo, “Sinners”
“The favorite is Globe winner Stellan Skarsgård, who has never before been nominated for an Oscar, as the mercurial father in ‘Sentimental Value.’ A terrifying Sean Penn, who has two Oscar wins (‘Milk’ and ‘Mystic River’), has been splitting the vote with “One Battle After Another” co-star Benicio Del Toro.”
Tribune News Service
Katie Walsh
1. Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value”
2. Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another”
3. Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein”
4. Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”
5. Delroy Lindo, “Sinners”
“Though Delroy Lindo came through with a surprise nomination, Stellan Skarsgård still feels like the winner here, as much a recognition of his incredibly long career and legacy (all those Skarsgård sons!) as it is for his nuanced work in ‘Sentimental Value.’ ”
Los Angeles Times
Glenn Whipp
1. Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value”
2. Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another”
3. Delroy Lindo, “Sinners”
4. Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein”
5. Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”
“The most wide-open category of the evening probably goes to Stellan Skarsgård, even if SAG-AFTRA voters ignored him. He was terrific playing the film’s irascible auteur, and he still can bask in the ‘Andor’ afterglow.”
