Rain is likely to fall over areas recently affected by the Camp and Woolsey fires in the coming week, weather experts said.
Though it’s too early to give more precise estimates, meteorologists have “very high confidence” that Butte County will get 4 to 5 inches of rain from Tuesday night through the weekend, with the heaviest rain Thanksgiving night, said Eric Kurth, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service.
“That’s going to be spread out over a period of days … not coming down all at once,” he said. That may be a good sign.
Typically, debris flows are expected when rain falls at half an inch per hour or more, said David Gomberg of the weather service. That means the rain would have to be fairly heavy to lead to mudslides.
In Southern California, there’s about a 50% chance of rain over the areas affected by the Woolsey fire as early as Wednesday, Gomberg said. If the rain does come, the weather service expects the area to get a quarter to three-quarters of an inch of rain.
“It doesn’t look like a real heavy rain producer,” he said. “In San Bernardino County … it’s very high certainty you’ll get some rain, and going south into Ventura and Los Angeles counties, the probability weakens.”