Would more police mean even less crime?

It was Christmas in July last week for Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, who received some good news: Major crime this year was again down in the city. This is the kind of thing all politicians pray for: to be in office when crime drops. It’s also the kind of thing politicians build campaigns around.

The news was also welcome, of course, because it was a nice break for Villaraigosa from the headlines and jokes about his dalliance with a television reporter -- an affair that obscured some accomplishments.

The foremost is the size of the Los Angeles Police Department. When Villaraigosa took office in July 2005, the LAPD had 9,181 officers. He vowed to increase the size of the force, and today the LAPD has 9,511 officers.

But does a larger LAPD guarantee that crime will keep going down?

It is difficult to say.

Experts over the years have struggled to find a correlation between the size of a police force and crime. At best, the data have been mixed.

Police Chief William J. Bratton has opined early and often in his five years here that Los Angeles is under-policed and that a larger force would allow him to strategically deploy officers to problem areas. Ideally, Bratton has said, he wants 12,500 officers; Villaraigosa has promised a force of more than 10,000.

Bratton has argued that more officers can make a difference. An example from earlier in his tenure: In 2003, Bratton said that he deployed 83 extra officers to the 77th Street Division in South L.A. and homicides dropped by 57%. When some of those officers were redeployed elsewhere the next year, homicides went up 42%.

So what does the accompanying chart show?

Think twice about accepting that job transfer to Detroit....

The chart also shows that, though Los Angeles is under-policed compared to cities such as New York and Chicago, eight of the nation’s 15 biggest cities have fewer officers per capita.

The most vexing aspect of the chart is trying to find patterns. San Jose, for example, has 147 officers per 100,000 residents -- the lowest among the biggest cities -- but also has the least amount of violent crime, with 383 incidents per 100,000 residents. Detroit, on the other hand, has 351 officers per 100,000 residents but also had 2,459 violent crimes per 100,000 residents. That’s three times the rate in L.A.

“I’m not going to say that having more cops is going to solve the crime problem,” said Mark Kleiman, a professor of public policy at UCLA. “You can have a very large, lousy police force.”

Nonetheless, Kleiman said he thinks that having a larger police force in Los Angeles -- with Bratton at the helm -- probably would help. Kleiman also said he would like to see standards for joining the LAPD change, with more emphasis on psychological fitness and less on physical fitness.

As for Villaraigosa, to help him track his progress on the police hiring front, we’ll be running a box with this column at the end of each month showing the size of the LAPD and whether it’s growing or shrinking.

What can apartment dwellers in Los Angeles do this week that they couldn’t do a couple of weeks ago?

Recycle.

For reasons difficult to explain, apartment and condo dwellers in Los Angeles have for decades had their trash picked up by private haulers instead of city crews. That, too, has meant that apartment residents haven’t been able to participate in curbside recycling.

Thanks to the City Council and the mayor, that has changed. You can sign up your apartment building for recycling by calling the city’s all-purpose line at 311. On the list of recyclables is packing foam, which many cities do not recycle. Packing peanuts, however, can’t be recycled.

By the way, if you live in L.A., you’ve been slacking on the recycling lately. Here’s the amount of recycling by fiscal year and tonnage for the last five years:

2002-03: 252,006 tons

2003-04: 264,431 tons

2004-05: 277,400 tons

2005-06: 272,892 tons

2006-07: 266,873 tons.

The next big thing in garbage?

Los Angeles is in the midst of trying to build five or six garbage-munching plants to avoid dumping all that trash in landfills. Firms have until late August to submit their proposals to the city.

But will neighborhoods accept them?

Officially, the facilities are known as waste-conversion plants because they take waste and turn it into something else -- such as ethanol -- while hopefully producing as few emissions as possible.

Councilman Greig Smith, who has been leading the push for the facilities, thinks residents will accept them because the plants will be only in industrial areas and near freeways. Smith, too, says the plants -- which are relatively common in Europe and Asia -- will have little in the way of emissions.

“We have to go to the neighborhoods and say, ‘This is not your daddy’s dirty old trash plant,’ ” Smith said. “You won’t see it or smell it.”

It will be mighty interesting to see which of Smith’s colleagues are willing to invite a plant into their district.

Smith said that he would gladly take one in his northwest San Fernando Valley district, and City Council President Eric Garcetti at a news conference last week said that he is open to one on the border of his district.

So, that’s two garbage-munchers down and at least three to go. Any other takers out there in council-land?

And the latest bad news on the global warming front?

Snow began melting in the Western mountains earlier than usual again this year, says Mike Dettinger, a research hydrologist for the U.S. Geological Survey.

Take, for example, the Merced River in Yosemite National Park. Over the last 92 years, the snowmelt on average has started in earnest in mid-April. But in 11 of the last 23 years, including this year, it started in mid-March.

The same is true around the West, where on average rivers began swelling with snowmelt about 17 days earlier than normal, according to records going back to 1950.

“This is what we expect global warming to look like in the rivers of the West,” said Dettinger, adding that by midcentury the snowpack may only be half or two-thirds what it was by April 1.

Which means?

The state’s water supply could be endangered and in late summer shortages could harm farmers, urban users and wildlife, and therefore undermine the state economy. Even worse, this could really screw up spring skiing.

In fact, a certain reporter tried skiing on rocks and soil at Alpine Meadows in March after discovering belatedly that the snow had melted halfway down one run.

Our conclusion: Although skiing on rocks provides a certain thrill, skiing on snow is more gratifying.

What was Councilman Dennis Zine’s great idea?

Attentive readers may recall that council Prez Garcetti, at the recent City Council sleepover, officially known as a retreat, said the next great idea may come from the person sitting next to you.

The person who happened to be sitting next to Garcetti was Councilman Dennis P. Zine.

After donning his thinking cap, Zine delivered this:

“My next BIG IDEA is a land swap between Dodger Stadium and the Los Angeles Times building downtown,” Zine wrote, adding this would please a certain reporter who wants a downtown stadium while the Dodger Stadium site could accommodate an “ever-expanding Times staff.”

To which we reply: Uncle.

Next week: New York skunks out on congestion pricing.

steve.hymon@latimes.com

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(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)

Is L.A. under-policed?

Of the nation’s 15 most populous cities, the number of police per capita in Los Angeles is about in the middle of the pack. The same is also true in terms of violent crimes and homicides.

*Per 100,000 city residents

*--* Populat Police Violent ion Rank City (in officers Officers* crimes* Homicides* million s) 1 New York 8.21 36,000 438 634 7 2 Los Angeles 3.85 9,511 247 793 12 3 Chicago 2.83 13,500 476 na 16 4 Houston 2.14 4,800 224 1,131 18 5 Phoenix 1.51 3,000 198 740 15 6 Philadelphia 1.45 6,600 456 1,580 28 7 San Antonio 1.30 2,085 161 615 9 8 San Diego 1.26 1,871 149 508 5 9 Dallas 1.23 2,977 241 1,221 15 10 San Jose 0.93 1,365 147 383 3 11 Detroit 0.87 3,057 351 2,459 48 12 Jacksonville 0.79 1,501 189 839 14 , Fla. 13 Indianapolis 0.79 1,600 204 979 18 14 San Francisco 0.74 2,288 308 878 12 15 Columbus, 0.73 1,829 249 809 12 Ohio

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Sources: Census Bureau 2006 population estimates, FBI Crime Reports 2006, the city police deptartments. Graphics reporting by Steve Hymon