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It’s Never Too Early for a Wild Guess

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Chris Suellentrop was a 2004 campaign correspondent for Slate.com.

Washington insiders pretend to love the sober work of governance, but we’re problem drinkers when it comes to presidential campaigns. The last bender just ended, and we woke up next to a Social Security debate. Clearly, we’d rather be back at the bar at the Hotel Fort Des Moines.

This may explain why, late last month the National Journal carried an insiders poll, asking 175 members of Congress and political strategists to predict the next two major-party presidential nominees. It could be called the first major event of campaign 2008.

If the Washington establishment has a house organ, it’s probably this influential political weekly, which is barely read outside of the nation’s capital. The National Journal’s eponymous publishing company also puts out the Hotline, a daily political digest, and the Almanac of American Politics. All three publications help shape the views of D.C. reporters and pundits.

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The insiders’ likely Democratic nominee was exactly who you might expect: New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton. But the Republican pick might surprise you, assuming you’ve even heard of him: Virginia’s George Allen, a first-term senator and former Old Dominion State governor who is the son of the former Washington Redskins -- and Los Angeles Rams -- football coach of the same name. Allen had a narrow lead over better-known rivals Sen. John McCain of Arizona and Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist of Tennessee.

The title of front-runner brings both money and media scrutiny, and the National Journal was careful to avoid that description. But columnist Charlie Cook called Allen -- who was born in Whittier, Calif. -- “Reaganesque” and “the most natural candidate.”

Hotline editor Chuck Todd coined the term “dark horse front-runner” to describe the Virginian. “Allen is W,” said Todd, referring to Allen’s tobacco-chewing charm, his appeal to religious conservatives and his tendency to be underestimated (misunderestimated?) by opponents. A possible fourth parallel can be found in this quote from an anonymous National Journal insider: “Wins more on style points than on candle wattage.”

An Internet poll conducted last month by Patrick Ruffini, the Bush-Cheney ’04 campaign webmaster, found Allen had strong support among online conservatives. Unscientific, yes. But so is the National Journal’s sample. More important, Christian conservative leader Pat Robertson told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos last Sunday that Allen was “a very attractive guy and could make a tremendous president.”

National GOP polls, for what they’re worth, show former New York City Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani and McCain in the lead, rather than Allen. And online wagering -- a surprisingly accurate barometer -- at www.tradesports.comshows Allen third, behind McCain and Frist.

But here’s a headline over a story about Allen from New York’s Forward newspaper: “Dems Turn Up Heat on GOP Frontrunner.” It’s not true yet. But if we start saying it, it will be.

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