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A poll pitting California Gov. Gavin Newsom against President Trump might look like good news for Democrats, but it also underscores how deeply Americans remain trapped in Trump’s shadow.
According to a recent Yahoo/YouGov poll, Newsom would defeat Trump in a head-to-head matchup, with 49% of registered voters choosing Newsom and just 41% backing Trump.
Cause to uncork the Champagne? Only until you realize this poll is simultaneously reassuring and unsettling. It shows that Trump is beatable, sure, but also tacitly entertains the idea that Trump might run for a third term — a move that is unconstitutional, illegal and, in a saner era, unthinkable.
What’s the possible harm in assessing Trump’s odds like it’s some sort of fantasy draft? The more we normalize this scenario, the more it chips away at the guardrails that would prevent such a thing from happening.
Trump, of course, doesn’t need any help when it comes to chipping away at norms and institutions. Indeed, he has already teased the third-term idea. Meanwhile, allies like Stephen Bannon are outright predicting it.
So for anyone who is worried about creeping authoritarianism, asking this polling question feels a bit like playing with matches. Then again, Newsom is winning, and it’s not like the practice of asking absurd, counterfactual polling questions is without precedent.
In April 2013, for example, the Los Angeles Times reported on a survey showing that “If an election between Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama were held today, 58% would vote for Reagan over Obama.”
Of course, Reagan had been dead for nearly nine years at that point — which is to say the analogy to Trump is imperfect (even if a zombified Reagan might be less dangerous — and more coherent).
Reagan, whose boyhood hero was Franklin Roosevelt, thought it was “ridiculous” that modern presidents couldn’t serve third terms. Still, to his credit, Reagan wanted that rule to change after he left office, a caveat that Trump does not clearly specify.
While the Reagan vs. Obama poll question was more akin to a computer fantasy fight — kind of like a match-up of Muhammad Ali in his prime versus Mike Tyson in his — Trump vs. Newsom has a darker implication because of its (albeit remote) plausibility.
But there’s another reason the Trump vs. Newsom polling question is somewhat legit: In a sense, Newsom is already running for president against Trump, if only in the minds of Democratic voters.
Think about it. Everything’s about Trump. Every poll. Every headline. Every debate. Trump is the measuring stick. The litmus test. The standard bearer. The ability to defeat him is the only metric of political viability. This is true, despite the fact that Trump is already a lame duck.
Indeed, one could imagine a scenario whereby Newsom becomes the Democratic nominee based on the premise that he could beat Trump. So yeah, the “Newsom beats Trump” headline is significant and newsworthy, even if it ought to be a pointless exercise by any normal criteria.
Perhaps now would be a good time for an important caveat: Americans are increasingly skeptical of the efficacy of polling these days, and that is especially true of one so far out from the 2028 general election. So aside from being conceptually absurd, this poll also bears the stain of being wildly premature.
Still, it does yield some useful insights, including the fact that Newsom’s recent political gambit — positioning himself as a fighter who is willing to take on Trump — is clearly working.
When registered Democratic voters were asked in that same survey, “Who do Democrats want as their nominee in 2028,” Newsom came out on top, edging out 2024 Democratic nominee Kamala Harris by three points. This spring, in an Economist/YouGov poll asking Democratic voters to name their “ideal choice” for 2028, Newsom ranked fifth with just 7%, trailing Harris, Pete Buttigieg, Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
The two questions weren’t identical, but together they suggest Newsom has made significant gains with the Democratic electorate.
Democratic voters want a fighter. But they risk making the mistake of fighting the last war if “who can beat Trump?” becomes the sole qualification for leading the party in 2028. (It’s worth noting that Newsom isn’t just beating Trump in this hypothetical matchup; he’s also beating JD Vance in that same survey.)
The bottom line? Newsom vs. Trump isn’t about two men; it’s about trying to figure out who can best serve as the antidote to a political force that has redefined American politics.
The real question isn’t whether Newsom could edge Trump today in a poll that probably shouldn’t even exist. It’s whether he — or any future nominee — can finally move the country beyond Trumpism tomorrow.
And in that regard, the only poll that matters will take place in November 2028.
Matt K. Lewis is the author of “Filthy Rich Politicians” and “Too Dumb to Fail.”
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Ideas expressed in the piece
- The poll showing Newsom defeating Trump 49% to 41% is simultaneously reassuring and unsettling, demonstrating Trump’s vulnerability while implicitly normalizing the unconstitutional prospect of a third Trump term
- Conducting such polling constitutes “playing with matches” that chips away at democratic guardrails, particularly concerning given Trump’s previous hints about seeking a third term and allies like Stephen Bannon openly predicting such a scenario
- The polling question carries darker implications than historical hypothetical matchups because of its potential plausibility, unlike purely fantastical scenarios involving deceased presidents
- Democratic politics has become entirely defined by Trump as the measuring stick, with every poll, headline, and debate centered around his influence, making anti-Trump sentiment the primary metric of political viability despite his lame-duck status
- While Newsom’s strategy of positioning himself as a Trump fighter appears politically successful, Democrats risk “fighting the last war” by making Trump-defeating ability their sole qualification for 2028 leadership
- The fundamental challenge extends beyond any individual matchup to determining whether future nominees can move America beyond Trumpism entirely, making the 2028 election the only poll that truly matters
Different views on the topic
- Polling data indicates Newsom’s confrontational approach toward Trump has significantly boosted his political standing, with his approval ratings improving from 59% disapproval to 56% favorable among Californians following federal-state clashes over immigration enforcement[1]
- Recent surveys demonstrate Newsom’s growing momentum nationally, with his support in the 2028 Democratic primary surging to 25%, representing a 13-point increase and substantial gains across key demographic groups including voters under 30 and over 70[2]
- Trump’s declining influence appears evident in California polling, where only 29% of residents approve of his job performance, while Californians increasingly identify political extremism and threats to democracy as their top national concern[3]
- Political analysts suggest Democrats may find renewed strength through Newsom’s model, as California Democrats retain key voting constituencies and benefit from standing up to Trump, with one expert noting “Newsom just showed the potential political benefits of standing up to Trump”[1]
- Electoral data suggests voters are seeking alternatives to Trump-centered politics, with Newsom performing competitively against potential Republican nominees like JD Vance in hypothetical 2028 matchups, indicating broad appeal beyond anti-Trump positioning[2]
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