The real answer to the Republicans’ ‘affordability problem’

Last week’s election results are a reality check for the Trump administration. Democrats didn’t just run up the score in deep-blue enclaves. With power prices soaring, they flipped two Georgia utility-regulator seats in rare statewide victories. In New York City, more than half of voters told exit pollsters that their top worry is the cost of living. Seven in 10 Americans say their grocery bills have gone up this past year. Six in 10 say their utility costs have increased.

So, yes, the affordability issues that dominated the 2024 election remain central. But President Trump insists there’s no problem. “Thanksgiving dinner under Trump is 25 percent lower than 2024 Thanksgiving dinner under Biden, according to Walmart,” he declared on Truth Social. “My cost[s] are lower than the Democrats on everything, especially oil and gas! So the Democrats’ ‘affordability’ issue is DEAD!”

Trump’s referring to Walmart’s “inflation-free Thanksgiving meal,” said to feed 10 people for $40, plus fees. This year’s standard basket is less expensive than last year’s eight-person bundle, but it no longer contains pecan pie, whipped topping, muffin mix, poultry seasoning, chicken broth, sweet potatoes, onions and celery, all of which have been quietly dropped.

The 2025 food basket is a perfect metaphor for the broader economy. The president insists that “every price is down,” but that’s incorrect. Although chicken breasts cost a bit less than a year ago, eggs, bacon, orange juice and beef are all more expensive. Trump’s policies didn’t trigger these price hikes, but they sure do perpetuate them.

Trump is also wrong to claim that “we’re at a perfect number” on inflation, which no longer dominates headlines. But it’s still affecting people. Since early 2021, average hourly earnings are up about 21.8%. Consumer prices have risen faster, with grocery prices up nearly 30% since 2020.

When Trump officials say inflation is down, they mean that the latest 3% year-over-year Consumer Price Index reading is nothing like the 9.1% experienced during the Biden years. They ignore that it’s up from 2.3% just this past spring.

At steady 3% inflation, a dollar is worth only 74 cents after 10 years. Consumers experience this as a permanent increase in the cost of living. That slow erosion is what voters feel whenever they buy groceries, pay rent or renew insurance.

The president’s tariffs don’t help. Remember, these are taxes Americans pay to import things. Like other taxes, they raise the costs of producing things and the final prices consumers pay — and not just for imported goods. When foreign products get more expensive, protected American companies can charge more too. When foreign steel is taxed, U.S. steel prices rise.

The higher costs ripple through the economy and cascade through supply chains. Cars, appliances and building materials get significantly more expensive. Since tariffs also apply to materials used in housing and infrastructure, they push up construction costs.

Erratic, day-to-day tariff rate changes — whether it’s 35% on Friday, 45% on Saturday or 25% with exceptions on Sunday — adds another hidden cost in the form of uncertainty. We pay it through increased prices and reduced investment.

Tariffs and the uncertainty they create are one reason medical costs, and by extension health insurance premiums, are going up. Some insurers, anticipating higher drug and medical-supply prices and a slowing economy, are already building those costs into 2026 rates. Among insurers that did so, Health System Tracker estimates that tariff-related pressures added roughly 3 percentage points, or about one-fifth of their total proposed premium increases, for next year.

Democrats’ track record is no better. Biden’s spending splurge kick-started an inflation crisis. The party has long pursued affordability through wealth transfers and subsidies while preserving the very regulations that restrict economic output. The result is higher prices.

Republicans once championed free trade and competition to create an abundance of goods, keep prices low and spur growth. Their vision rested on unleashing production, innovation and trade rather than subsidizing demand.

With notable exceptions like energy deregulation and AI policy, Trump-era statism and protectionism takes a page from Democrats’ interventionist playbook: imposing tariffs that restrict supply, picking winners and inflating costs. The president even suggested sending out $2,000 tariff-rebate checks to create the illusion that those tariffs aren’t making us poorer.

Voters know better than to confuse tricks with prosperity. They see that prices are still high and rising, that paychecks are still lagging and that tariffs and transfer schemes can’t conjure real affordability. If both parties keep treating economics as a branch of campaign strategy, Americans will keep paying more for less in checkout lines — and incumbent officials will pay at the ballot box.

Veronique de Rugy is a senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. This article was produced in collaboration with Creators Syndicate.