Newsom’s redistricting plan is a power grab. But the GOP objections are rubbish
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SACRAMENTO — One accusation hurled at Gov. Gavin Newsom for his retaliatory redistricting move against President Trump and Texas Republicans is that he’s overriding the will of California voters. Rubbish.
The flawed argument goes like this:
Californians — once upon a time — voted overwhelmingly to ban partisan gerrymandering and strip the task of drawing congressional seats from self-interested legislators. In a historic political reform, redistricting was turned over to an independent citizens’ commission. Now, Newsom is trying to subvert the voters’ edict.
“It is really a calculated power grab that dismantles the very safeguards voters put in place,” California Republican Party Chairwoman Corrin Rankin said in a statement last week, echoing other party members. “This is Gavin the Gaslighter overturning the will of the voters and telling you it’s for your own good.”
Again, baloney.
Power grab? Sure. Overturning the voters’ will? Hardly.
Newsom is asking voters to express a new will–seeking permission to fight back against Trump’s underhanded attempt to redraw congressional districts in Texas and other red states so Republicans can retain control of the U.S. House of Representatives after next year’s midterm elections.
First of all, that anti-gerrymandering vote creating the citizens’ commission was 15 years ago. It was a wise decision and badly needed, and still a wonderful concept in the abstract. But that was then, this is now.
Just because a ballot measure was passed one or two decades ago doesn’t mean it has been cast in stone. Would Californians still vote to ban same-sex marriage or deny public schooling to undocumented children? Doubtful. Circumstances and views change.
Second, that 2010 electorate no longer exists. Today’s electorate is substantially different. And it shouldn’t necessarily be tied to the past.
Consider:
- Of the 23.6 million adult California citizens in 2010 — the eligible voters — an estimated 3.6 million have died, or more than 15%, according to population experts at the state Finance Department.
- In all, “at least half of the voter registration file is totally new compared to 2010. And that might even be an understatement,” says Eric McGhee, a demographer at the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California. “There’s been a lot of turnover. It’s a different electorate.”
People have left the state and others have moved in. Millions of kids have become voting adults. - There are roughly 6 million more Californians registered to vote today than 15 years ago — 23 million compared to 17 million. “That’s a pretty huge change,” says Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data Inc., who has drawn the proposed new Democratic-friendly California congressional maps for Newsom.
- And the partisan makeup of registered voters has become more favorable toward Democrats, who enjoy a nearly 2-to-1 advantage. In last year’s presidential election, Democrats accounted for 46% of registered voters and Republicans 25%. In 2010, it still seemed somewhat competitive. Democrats were at 44% and Republicans 31%.
PPIC researchers recently reported that “partisanship now shapes the state’s migration — with those moving out of the state more likely to be Republican and those moving in more likely to be Democrat. … This process makes California more Democratic than it would otherwise be.”
So, Newsom and Democratic legislators are not thumbing their noses at the voters’ will. They’re asking today’s voters to suspend the ban on gerrymandering and adopt a partisan redistricting plan at a Nov. 4 special election. The good government process of map drawing by the citizen’s commission would return after the 2030 decennial census.
The heavily Democratic Legislature will pass a state constitutional amendment containing Newsom’s plan and put it on the ballot, probably this week.
It would take effect only if Texas or other red states bow to Trump’s demand to gerrymander their congressional districts to rig them for Republicans. Trump is seeking five more GOP seats from Texas and Gov. Greg Abbott is trying to oblige. Republicans already hold 25 of the 38 seats.
Newsom’s plan, released Friday, counters Texas’ scheme with a blatant gerrymander of his own. It would gain five Democratic seats. Democrats already outnumber Republicans on the California House delegation 43 to 9.
Neither the governor nor any Democrats are defending gerrymandering. They agree it’s evil politics. They support redistricting by the citizens’ commission and believe this high-road process should be required in every state. But that’s not about to happen. And to stand by meekly without matching the red states’ election rigging would amount to unilateral disarmament, they contend correctly.
“It’s not good enough to just hold hands, have a candlelight vigil and talk about the way the world should be,” Newsom declared at a campaign kickoff last week. “We have got to recognize the cards that have been dealt. And we have got to meet fire with fire.”
But polling indicates it could be a tough sell to voters. A large majority believe the bipartisan citizens commission should draw congressional districts, not the politicians who they don’t particularly trust.
“It’ll be complicated to explain to voters why two wrongs make a right,” says Republican strategist Rob Stutzman, a GOP never-Trumper.
Former GOP redistricting consultant Tony Quinn says: “There is no way to ‘educate’ voters on district line drawing. And Californians vote ‘no’ on ballot measures they do not understand. … It’s sort of like trying to explain the basketball playoffs to me.”
But veteran Democratic strategist Garry South doesn’t see a problem.
“The messaging here is clear: ‘Screw Trump’,” South says. “If the object is to stick it to Trump, [voter] turnout won’t be a problem.”
Gerrymandering may not be the voters’ will in California. But they may well jump at the chance to thwart Trump.
What else you should be reading
The must-read: Newsom’s decision to fight fire with fire could have profound political consequences
The TK: Trial in National Guard lawsuit tests whether Trump will let courts limit authority
The L.A. Times Special: Hundreds of Californians have been paid $10,000 to relocate to Oklahoma. Did they find paradise?
Until next week,
George Skelton
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Ideas expressed in the piece
The argument that Newsom is overriding California voters’ will is fundamentally flawed, as the governor is actually seeking new permission from voters to respond to Trump’s gerrymandering efforts in Texas and other red states. The proposed plan would only take effect if Texas or other states proceed with their own partisan redistricting schemes.
California’s electorate has changed dramatically since the 2010 anti-gerrymandering vote, with an estimated 3.6 million voters from that era having died and roughly 6 million new voters registered. This represents at least half of the voter registration file being completely new compared to 2010, creating a substantially different electorate that shouldn’t be bound by past decisions.
The partisan composition has also shifted significantly, with Democrats now enjoying nearly a 2-to-1 advantage among registered voters compared to the more competitive landscape of 2010. Research shows that California’s migration patterns now favor Democrats, with Republicans more likely to leave the state and Democrats more likely to move in.
Standing by passively while red states engage in election rigging would amount to “unilateral disarmament.” Democrats aren’t defending gerrymandering as good policy but argue that matching Republican tactics is necessary to prevent Trump from securing additional House seats through manipulation of congressional districts.
The messaging strategy is straightforward and potentially effective with voters who may be motivated by opposition to Trump, even if they generally support the independent redistricting commission process.
Different views on the topic
California Republican Party leadership characterizes the redistricting proposal as “a calculated power grab that dismantles the very safeguards voters put in place,” arguing that it represents a fundamental betrayal of the reform measures Californians previously supported[1].
The Citizens Redistricting Commission was specifically created through voter-approved initiatives in 2008 and 2010 to end partisan gerrymandering in California, with the commission consisting of 14 members equally divided between Democrats, Republicans, and independents who follow strict nonpartisan criteria[2][3].
Good government organizations like Common Cause emphasize that California’s independent redistricting system serves as “a national model for redistricting reform” and represents a historic achievement in ending gerrymandering that should be preserved[3].
Political strategists warn that the proposal faces significant messaging challenges, as polling indicates most voters believe the bipartisan citizens commission should draw congressional districts rather than politicians. The difficulty lies in explaining to voters “why two wrongs make a right” when most Californians fundamentally oppose gerrymandering regardless of which party benefits[4].
The complexity of redistricting as a political issue poses additional hurdles, with experts noting that “there is no way to ‘educate’ voters on district line drawing” and that “Californians vote ‘no’ on ballot measures they do not understand”[4].
