Trump’s antics helping supporters of Prop. 50
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SACRAMENTO — Gov. Gavin Newsom’s anti-Trump, anti-Texas congressional redistricting gamble seems about to pay off.
Newsom’s bet on Proposition 50 is looking like a winner, although we won’t really know until the vote count is released starting election night Nov. 4.
Insiders closely watching the high-stakes campaign would be shocked if Republicans pulled an upset and defeated the Democrats’ retaliatory response to red state gerrymandering.
They talk mostly about the expected size of victory, not whether it will win. The hedged consensus is that it’ll be by a modest margin, not a blowout.
Any size victory would help Newsom promote himself nationally as the Democrat whom party activists anxiously seek to aggressively fight Trumpism. It could energize grassroots progressives to back the Californian in early 2028 presidential primaries.
Propositions 50’s defeat, however, could be a devastating blow to Newsom’s presidential aspirations. If Californians wouldn’t follow him, why should other people?
Private and independent polls have shown Proposition 50 being supported by a small majority of registered voters. Not enough for an early victory dance. But the opposition is nowhere close to a majority. A lot of people have been undecided. They may not even bother to vote in a special election with only one state measure on the ballot.
As of last week, the return of mail-in ballots was running about the same as in last year’s presidential election at the same point — very unusual.
A slightly higher percentage of Democrats were casting ballots than GOP registrants. This is particularly significant in a state where 45% of voters are Democrats and only 25% are Republicans. The GOP needs a humungous turnout to beat Democrats on almost anything.
You can credit President Trump’s antics for riling up Democrats to vote early.
One practical importance of early Democratic voting is that the “yes” side doesn’t need to spend more money appealing to people who have already mailed in their ballots.
“It’s a bird in the hand kind of thing,” says Paul Mitchell, the Democrats’ chief data processor and principal drawer of the gerrymandered congressional maps up for approval in Proposition 50.
Mitchell believes the large recent weekend turnouts in California of “No Kings” protesters are indicative of the anti-Trump outrage that is generating Democratic enthusiasm for Proposition 50.
Republican consultant Rob Stutzman thinks that Proposition 50 could have been beaten with enough money. But not nearly enough showed up. Potential donors probably concluded it was a lost cause, he says. Don’t waste the cash.
It takes ridiculous amounts of money to win a competitive statewide race in California, with 23 million diverse voters scattered over hundreds of miles and several costly media markets.
Democrats, with their unmatched California power, have raised well over $100 million from unions, billionaire Democratic donors and other political investors.
Billionaire hedge-fund founder Tom Steyer put up $12 million. There are rumors he’s tempted to run for governor.
Los Angeles developer Rick Caruso is thinking very seriously about entering the 2026 gubernatorial race. He just paid for 100,000 pro-50 mail pieces in L.A. County, aimed at those least likely to vote.
One problem for the opposition is that it never unified behind a main anti-50 message. It ranged from “reject Newsom’s power grab” to “win one for Trump” and a purist lecture about retaining California’s current congressional districts drawn by a voter-created good government citizens’ commission.
The basic pro-50 message is simply, as Steyer says in his TV ad: “Stick it to Trump.”
This contest at its core is about which party controls Congress after next year’s midterm elections — or whether Republicans and Democrats at least share power. It’s about whether there’ll be a Congress with some gumption to confront a power-mad, egotistical president.
The fight started when Trump banged on Texas to redraw — gerrymander — its congressional districts to potentially gain five more Republican seats in the House of Representatives. Democrats need only a slight pickup to capture House control — and in an off-year election, the non-presidential party tends to acquire many.
Texas obediently obliged the nervous Trump, and other red states also have.
Newsom responded by urging the California Legislature to redraw this state’s maps to potentially gain five Democratic seats, neutralizing Texas’ underhanded move. The lawmakers quickly did. But in California, voter approval is needed to temporarily shelve the independent commission’s work. That’s what Proposition 50 does.
It also would boost Newsom’s standing among party activists across America.
“He’s been trying to claim the national leadership on anti-Trump. This is a chance for him to show he can deliver,” says UC Berkeley political scientist Eric Schickler. “There’s a sense the party doesn’t know how to fight back.
“On the flip side, if he were unable to persuade California voters to go along with him, it would be a hard sell to show Democrats nationally he’s the best person to take on Republicans.”
“It’s a gamble,” says UC San Diego political science professor Thad Kousser. “If 50 wins, he’s a person who can effectively fight back against Donald Trump. If it loses, he has no hope of winning on the national level.”
But veteran political consultant Mike Murphy — a former Republican who switched to independent — thinks Newsom could survive voters’ rejection of Proposition 50.
“It would take some of the shine off him. But he’d still be a contender. It wouldn’t knock him out. The worst you could say was that he lost 50 but was fighting the good fight.
“If 50 wins, Gavin might have a good future as a riverboat gambler if he puts all the chips in.”
What else you should be reading
The must-read: Pelosi faces challenges as age becomes unavoidable tension point for Democrats
The TK: Justice Department says it will monitor California poll sites amid Prop. 50 voting
The L.A. Times Special: She was highly qualified to be California governor. Why did her campaign fizzle?
Until next week,
George Skelton
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Ideas expressed in the piece
Proposition 50 is positioned as a necessary response to Republicans’ partisan redistricting efforts, particularly Texas’s decision to redraw congressional maps to gain five additional Republican House seats[2]. The author contends that the measure represents a justified counterbalance to what Democrats characterize as a Republican “power grab.”
Early Democratic turnout is proving advantageous for the measure’s passage, with Democrats casting ballots at significantly higher rates than Republicans despite comprising a smaller portion of the electorate[4]. This early voting advantage is strategically valuable since supporters who have already mailed in ballots no longer require additional campaign spending to persuade them.
Trump’s recent messaging opposing early voting and mail-in ballots is paradoxically energizing Democratic voters to participate in the special election, thereby undermining Republican efforts to defeat the proposition[4]. The author notes that the president’s “antics” are mobilizing Democratic enthusiasm and grassroots activism around the measure.
The core rationale for supporting Proposition 50 extends beyond redistricting mechanics to broader concerns about congressional control and the ability to check executive power. The measure is framed as essential for determining whether Congress will have sufficient Democratic representation to confront what supporters view as an increasingly authoritarian executive branch[1].
For Governor Newsom, passage of Proposition 50 would validate his positioning as an effective Democratic leader capable of aggressively confronting Trump on the national stage, potentially strengthening his standing among party activists ahead of future presidential primaries. Conversely, defeat would significantly damage his national political prospects and credibility as a Trump opponent.
The opposition campaign has failed to coalesce around a unified message, fracturing between those opposing it as a Democratic overreach, those arguing for principle-based retention of the citizens’ commission maps, and those supporting Republican interests, thereby weakening the overall effectiveness of anti-50 messaging.
Different views on the topic
Some opponents characterize Proposition 50 as a partisan “power grab” orchestrated by Governor Newsom rather than a principled response to redistricting concerns, arguing that Democrats are simply perpetuating the same gerrymandering tactics they criticize Republicans for employing[1].
Critics raise concerns about mid-decade redistricting on principle, arguing that congressional maps should only be redrawn following the decennial census conducted by the citizens’ redistricting commission, which was established specifically to insulate the process from partisan manipulation[2][3]. From this perspective, Proposition 50 undermines California’s own good-government reforms by allowing the legislature to override the independent commission’s authority.
Some Republican strategists acknowledge that the measure faces significant structural disadvantages in California’s Democratic-leaning electorate, with one consultant suggesting that even with adequate funding, defeating Proposition 50 would be extremely difficult given the state’s party registration advantage[5].
Opposition messaging has incorporated concern about the legitimacy of holding a special election on a single issue, framing it as an example of elite decision-making rather than democratic governance[2]. Critics suggest this approach concentrates power in Sacramento rather than empowering voters through established institutional processes.
Republican opponents have drawn connections between Proposition 50 and broader concerns about election integrity and procedural legitimacy, though these arguments have not achieved cohesion across the opposition coalition[5].
