Beyond the fight for the House, here’s what at stake in the Senate
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- Democrats face steep odds of winning the four seats they need to gain control of the Senate.
- With 35 seats on the ballot, most lean toward Republicans with fewer than a handful of toss-up races.
There’s a reason for the fearsome redistricting fight raging across America. It’s about Democrats trying to rein in Donald Trump and his rogue-elephant regime.
Or, if you’re the country’s aspiring strongman, it’s about avoiding accountability and sanction.
That’s why Trump and fellow Republicans are trying to rig the midterm election, by gerrymandering congressional lines in hopes of boosting the GOP’s chances of keeping its tenuous hold on the House past 2026.
California Democrats are seeking payback by redrawing the state’s congressional lines in hopes of swiping five or more GOP-held seats. Voters will have their say on the matter Nov. 4, when they decide Proposition 50.
Of course, there are two branches of Congress. Why, then, is there so much focus on the House? Simply put, it’s because of the steep odds Democrats face trying to win control of the Senate, which are somewhere between slim and none — with slim last seen cinching his saddle before cantering out of town.
Let’s take a moment for a quick refresher.
The partisan passions suggest control of the House will be decided next year by just a few seats, one way or the other. But that’s typically not the case.
Every two years, all 435 House seats are on the ballot. Senate terms are staggered and run six years, so roughly a third of the chamber’s 100 seats are up for a vote in each federal election. In 2026, there will be 35 Senate contests.
Most won’t be remotely competitive.
In fact, more than two dozen of those races are effectively over before they begin, given the advantage one party holds over the other. Mississippi, for instance, will send a Democrat to the U.S. Senate the day that Delaware elects a Republican; both will occur right after Trump and Adam Schiff get inked with matching “I Love L.A.” tattoos.
That leaves nine Senate races that are at least somewhat competitive. Of those, three are considered toss-ups: open-seat contests in Michigan and North Carolina and the race in Georgia, where Democrat Jon Ossoff is seeking a second term.
Democrats need to gain four seats to take control of the Senate, meaning even if they win all three of those even-steven races — which is far from certain — they still need to successfully defend seats in Minnesota and New Hampshire and pick up at least one other GOP-held seat.
That’s where the going gets tough.
Kamala Harris won Maine, which suggests Republican Susan Collins could be vulnerable. But the five-term senator has repeatedly managed to hang on, even in good Democratic years.
The three other races are tougher still.
Ohio used to be a major Midwestern battleground, but it’s grown solidly Republican. Democrats landed their prized recruit, former Sen. Sherrod Brown, who narrowly lost his 2024 reelection bid and may be the only Democrat with a realistic shot at the seat. Still, he’s facing an uphill fight in the special election against Republican Jon Husted, an ex-lieutenant governor who was appointed to replace Vice President JD Vance.
In Iowa, where Republican Joni Ernst is retiring, GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson starts out the favorite in another state that’s grown increasingly red. (Hinson, a USC grad and former KABC-TV intern, has taken to trash-talking the Golden State — “I don’t want to see the country look like California” — because that’s what Republicans do these days.)
Which leaves Texas, land of shattered Democratic dreams.
It’s been more than three decades since the party has won a statewide election. Ever since, Democrats have insisted this is the year they’d end their losing streak.
They’ve tried various approaches. A “dream team” that consisted of a slate of Black, white and Latino nominees. A ticket topped by political celebrity Wendy Davis, of filibuster fame. An out-of-nowhere phenom by the name of Beto O’Rourke. All failed.
This time, Democrats are hoping for an assist from the GOP.
Republican Sen. John Cornyn is seeking his fifth term and faces the state’s attorney general, Ken Paxton, in a primary that’s already grown fierce and ugly.
Paxton is MAGA down to the soles of his feet, which would normally give him a big advantage in a GOP primary. But his history — allegations of bribery and corruption, an impeachment trial, a messy divorce — have left him in bad odor with many Republicans.
The GOP’s Senate campaign committee and Majority Leader John Thune have aggressively thrown their weight behind Cornyn, though Trump has so far remained neutral.
Adding to the intrigue, Wesley Hunt, a two-term congressman from the Houston area, jumped into the GOP primary on Monday, defying party leaders who fear he could siphon votes from Cornyn and boost Paxton in a three-way race.
Democrats would love to run against Paxton, given polls suggesting a competitive race if he’s the nominee. First, though, they’ll have to sort out their own primary.
Colin Allred, the former NFL linebacker who lost in November to Ted Cruz, is running again and faces James Talarico, a state representative and seminarian from the Austin area, who’s became an online sensation with his godly persona and viral take-down of conservative pieties. O’Rourke also hasn’t ruled out another try for Senate.
There’s no lack of surveys purporting to show where Californians’ heads are at a mere six weeks before election day. But not all polls are created equal.
Garry Mauro, a Democrat and former Texas land commissioner, is clear-eyed in assessing his party’s prospects.
“If you run on the right issues and don’t leave yourself a crazy radical ... then I think you have a real chance of building a winning race,” he said. But “to say this isn’t a leaning-R state would be Pollyannish, and I’m not Pollyannish.”
Which means counting on the Lone Star state to deliver a Democratic-run U.S. Senate is a bit like trusting a drunken gambler to preserve and protect your rent money.
That’s why Democrats are betting the House in hopes of corralling Trump.
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Ideas expressed in the piece
The author characterizes the national redistricting fight as Republicans attempting to “rig the midterm election” through gerrymandering congressional lines to maintain their tenuous hold on the House past 2026, describing Trump’s administration as a “rogue-elephant regime” that seeks to avoid accountability and sanction[1].
California Democrats are portrayed as justified in seeking “payback” by redrawing the state’s congressional lines through Proposition 50, which could potentially swipe five or more GOP-held seats in response to Republican gerrymandering efforts in states like Texas[1][2].
The author argues that Democrats face “steep odds” in winning Senate control that are “somewhere between slim and none,” making the House a more realistic target for Democratic efforts to rein in Trump’s influence, since they would need to gain four seats while defending vulnerable positions and winning in increasingly red states.
Texas is characterized as the “land of shattered Democratic dreams” where the party hasn’t won a statewide election in over three decades, with previous efforts by various Democratic candidates and approaches all ending in failure, making it unreliable for Senate control despite potential GOP primary chaos between John Cornyn and Ken Paxton.
Different views on the topic
Some Democrats, including San José Mayor Matt Mahan, criticize the performative political approach embraced by leaders like Governor Newsom, calling such tactics a “sugar high” that provides “cathartic effect” for frustrated Democrats but doesn’t actually move toward success or offer real solutions to voters’ concerns[3].
Critics argue that focusing on “breaking the internet” through political theater serves to “excuse inaction and ineffective policies,” suggesting Democrats should prioritize addressing real-world problems like business climate, public safety, and retail theft rather than engaging in attacks against political opponents[3].
Proposition 50 represents a departure from California’s 15-year commitment to independent redistricting, which has been “often held up as the country’s gold standard,” with the measure overriding maps drawn by the state’s nonpartisan Citizens Redistricting Commission that voters specifically created to remove lawmakers from the redistricting process[1].
The proposition faces opposition from various groups who view it as undermining the voter-created independent redistricting system, though the specific arguments of these opponents focus on preserving the nonpartisan commission process that California voters established during the Great Recession[1][2].
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