Darrell Issa
Steve Knight
Dana Rohrabacher
Ed Royce
Mimi Walters
Jeff Denham
David Valadao
Duncan Hunter
Devin Nunes
Tom McClintock
Salud Carbajal
Ami Bera
Scott Peters
Raul Ruiz

Track California’s House races as the field is set for the midterm elections

By Christina Bellantoni, Julie Westfall and Allison Wisk

Design by Joe Fox and Priya Krishnakumar


We've moved coverage of the top California House races to watch »

Now that they are past the threat of primary shutouts, the competitive congressional matchups in California are set.

Democrats consider 10 Republican-held districts here to be battlegrounds and likely can't retake control of the U.S. House without winning at least a few of them. Though Republicans are officially targeting four Democratic districts in California, they are widely considered safe.

Taking multiple factors into account, The Times' California politics editors have ranked the hottest races by the intensity of the fight ahead. Subscribers to the Essential Politics newsletter will be the first to learn what’s changed.

Most competitive

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Factors we are considering in our rankings:

  • Reelection margins over time: How much have they won by?
  • Recent presidential results
  • Demographic changes over time
  • Voter registration trends

    Are there more Democrats than there have been previously or more people who don't want to identify with a political party?

  • Overall fundraising picture

    How much money the incumbent has in the bank versus the strongest challenger, the rate at which the challenger is raising money and the total amount of money raised by challengers

  • Terms in office

    Incumbency is a dominant predictor of election outcomes

  • Primary vote performance

    How incumbents and major parties performed in the overall vote

  • Wild cards

    Among the possibilities: Strength of challengers, scandals, controversial votes, unforeseen news events and Times reporting

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