Is the Dodgers’ vaunted farm system a mirage?

Hi, and welcome to another edition of Dodgers Dugout. My name is Houston Mitchell. Pitchers and catchers report in eight days. The Dodgers’ first spring training game is in 16 days. That seemed like the shortest offseason in history.

For some reason, Diego Cartaya popped into my mind the other day. Cartaya, a catcher, was a top 10 prospect for the Dodgers, played in the 2022 MLB All-Star Futures game and was the No. 14 prospect in baseball before the 2023 season. At one point the Dodgers had to choose between him and Will Smith. They chose Smith, and some people thought that was a mistake. But it wasn’t.

Cartaya hit .189 in double-A in 2023 and hit .221 split between double- and triple-A in 2024. He was designated for assignment in January 2025 and traded to the Minnesota Twins. He hit .085 in 20 minor league games and was released by the Twins. He is currently in the Giants’ organization.

Then I thought about Miguel Vargas. Another top 10 prospect who didn’t make it with the Dodgers, hitting .201 in 129 major league games before he was traded to the White Sox as part of a three-team trade than brought Michael Kopech and Tommy Edman to L.A. Vargas hit .104 in 42 games with Chicago in 2024 before rebounding a bit last season and hitting .234 with 16 homers in 138 games. But those aren’t quite the numbers you hope for from a top-10 prospect.

Which got me to thinking, there haven’t been a lot of hitters who were top 10 prospects for the Dodgers who became stars. Or is my memory failing me? Let’s look at the Dodgers’ top 10 prospects each season since 2015, focusing on hitters.

2015
1. Corey Seager, SS, OK, this one turned out to be pretty good.

3. Joc Pederson, OF. He had a career 118 OPS+ in seven seasons with L.A. and played well since then before hitting just .181 with Texas last season.

8. Darnell Sweeney, 2B. Sweeney was traded during the 2015 season for Chase Utley. Sweeney played in only 39 games in his major league career, hitting .172.

9. Alex Verdugo, OF. Verdugo hit .294 in his only full season with the Dodgers (2019) and looked like he would be a big contributor for quite a while. But he was traded after the season with Jeter Downs and Connor Wong to Boston for Mookie Betts and David Price. He had a strong 2020 and finished 12th in MVP voting, but a slow decline began after that. He was released by Atlanta last season after hitting .239/.296/.289 in 56 games and is still out of baseball.

10. Scott Schebler, OF. Schebler played in only 19 games for the Dodgers (all in 2015) before he was sent to the Reds in a three-team trade. He had three OK seasons with the Reds, highlighted by hitting 30 homers in 2017. His career ended after playing 14 games with the Angels in 2021.

2016

1. Seager

6. Cody Bellinger, OF. First three seasons were great. The final three were not. Reinvented himself elsewhere and just signed a big free-agent contract with the Yankees.

7. Verdugo

2017

1. Bellinger

3. Verdugo

4. Willie Calhoun, 2B. Hit .316 and slugged .519 in the minors in 2015. Fell off a bit in 2016, and was traded to Texas along with two minor leaguers during the 2017 season for Yu Darvish. Had a nice 2019 with the Rangers (.269/.323/.524, 25 homers). In spring training in 2020, he was hit in the face with a pitch, breaking his jaw, sidelining for half the season. Then, during the 2021 season, his left forearm was broken by another pitch. He was never the same after that and is currently playing in Mexico.

6. Yusniel Díaz, OF. He played in the 2018 Futures game and later that season was traded, with four others, to Baltimore for Manny Machado. He played in only one game in the majors, in 2022, and played in an independent league last season.

6. Gavin Lux, SS. It looked like Lux was on the cusp of something big before he wrecked his knee and sat out the 2023 season. He was traded to Cincinnati before the 2025 season for Mike Sirota. Lux is now with Tampa Bay.

9. Andrew Toles, OF. We all know about the sad story of Toles.

2018

2. Verdugo. Gee, Verdugo was a top-10 prospect for quite a while, wasn’t he?

3. Keibert Ruiz. Before Cartaya, the choice was between Smith and Ruiz. The Dodgers again chose wisely, though Ruiz has put together a decent career with the Washington Nationals. What if the Dodgers had chosen Ruiz or Cartaya? There must be alternate Earths somewhere where that has happened. Perhaps that can be tackled in a future Avengers sequel.

5. Díaz

6. DJ Peters, OF. There were a lot of DJ Peters fans among the Dodgers Dugout readership, much like there are a lot of Ryan Ward fans among the newsletter readers today. Let’s hope Ward turns out better. Much like Ward, Peters had a lot of power, hitting 27, 29 and 23 homers in his first three full minor league seasons. The 2020 minor league season was canceled because of COVID, and you have to wonder if that hurt his progress. He hit only four homers in 180 at-bats at triple-A Oklahoma City before he was put on waivers and selected by Texas. He hit .198 with 12 homers in 197 at-bats for them. He then went to Korea for a season and is currently a baseball instructor in Oklahoma.

7. Jeren Kendall, OF. Selected in the first round of the 2017 draft, Kendall never quite found his footing in the minors, hitting .209 in 400 games before retiring after hitting .162 in double-A in 2022.

9. Will Smith, C. You may have heard of him. Apparently hit an important homer in the 2025 World Series while catching every inning of the seven-game series.

2019

1. Verdugo. Here he is again!

2. Ruiz

4. Lux

6. Smith

8. Jeter Downs, SS. He hit .276/.372/.526 in his only season in the minors with the Dodgers before he was included in the trade that brought Betts to L.A. He hit .182 in 20 major league games and played in Japan the last two seasons.

10. Cartaya.

2020

1. Lux

4. Ruiz

7. Kody Hoese, 3B. Hoese was selected in the first round of the 2019 draft. He has been in the Dodgers’ minor league system since then, and has not exactly been what they hoped for, hitting .255/.323/.395. He is currently a minor-league free agent.

8. Michael Busch, 3B/1B. The Dodgers never gave Busch much of a shot, as they were set at third and first base with Max Muncy and Freddie Freeman. Busch was terrible defensively at third. He hit .167 in 27 games for the Dodgers in 2023, then was traded to the Cubs for two minor leaguers. He has found much greater success in Chicago and hit 34 homers for the Cubs last season as their first baseman and finished 16th in MVP voting.

9. Cartaya

10. Luis Rodriguez, OF. Signed out of Venezuela when he was 18, Rodriguez struggled through four minor league seasons, hitting .241, before he was released by the Dodgers before the 2025 season.

2021

1. Ruiz

3. Busch

4. Hoese

6. Cartaya

8. Andy Pages, OF. Pages, of course, played well for the Dodgers last season before having a tough postseason, during which he went four for 51. He did have that game-saving catch in Game 7 of the World Series though, and seems likely to bounce back this season.

9. Wilman Diaz, SS/2B. Signed out of Venezuela in 2020, Diaz hasn’t progressed well in the minors, hitting just .203 in A ball last season. He is still very young (21) however.

10. Jacob Amaya, SS/2B. He played in the Dodger organization through 2022, and was a no-hit, good glove guy. He was traded to Miami for Miguel Rojas before the 2023 season, and that trade certainly worked out well for L.A. Amaya has been with three teams since his Dodger tenure and has hit .183 in 64 games in the majors.

2022

1. Cartaya

2. Busch

4. Pages

5. Vargas

8. Eddys Leonard, INF. Leonard was signed in 2018 out of the Dominican Republic and slowly made his way through the ranks and up the prospect list until he reached the top 10. He hit .264/.348/.435 in 2022 at Great Lakes (A ball), then hit .254 in double-A in 2023 when the Dodgers released him. He has since played in the minors for the Tigers and the Braves and is currently with the Brewers.

9. Jorbit Vivas, 2B/3B. Signed in 2018 as a 17-year-old out of Venezuela, Vivas hit .311 for Rancho Cucamonga in 2021 and .269 with moderate power for Great Lakes in 2022. Promoted to triple-A in 2023, he hit only .225, but was one of the youngest players in the league. He was traded after the 2023 season to the Yankees for Trey Sweeney, and finally reached the majors last season, hitting .161 in 29 games.

10. Diaz

2023

1. Cartaya

3. Vargas

4. Busch

7. Pages

8. Dalton Rushing, C. The Dodgers really seem to develop catchers well. Rushing hit .278 with power across four minor league seasons before making it to the majors last season. He hit .204/.258/.324 and lost the backup catcher job to Ben Rortvedt. It looks like Rushing will be the backup again this season, and he is certainly not displacing Smith, and he is not great defensively in left, which will now be manned again by Teoscar Hernández. It seems he won’t reach his potential with the Dodgers, since there is no place for him to play.

9. James Outman, OF. He finished third in Rookie of the Year voting in 2023. Since then he has hit .141/.237/.293 in 112 games with the Dodgers and Minnesota.

2024

1. Rushing

4. Josue De Paula, OF. The current crown jewel of the Dodger system, DePaula will turn 21 in May. Hit .250/.391/.400 in the minors last season, which doesn’t sound great until you consider he was much younger than most of his competitors. He should start the season at double-A this year.

9. Cartaya

10. Thayron Liranzo, C/1B. Another 17-year-old signed from the Dominican Republic (in 2021), Liranzo was hitting .220 for Great Lakers in 2024 when the Dodgers included him in the package to acquire pitcher Jack Flaherty from Detroit. He hit .206 in double-A with the Tigers last season.

2025

1. DePaula

2. Zyhir Hope, OF. Hope was acquired from the Cubs as part of the Michael Busch trade. He turned 21 in January and hit .264/.377/.428 for Great Lakes last season before hitting .316 in a very brief time with double-A Tulsa. He is a good outfielder and hopefully he continues to progress.

3. Eduardo Quintero, OF. Quintero comes from Venezuela and just turned 20. He hit .306/.426/.533 for Class A Rancho Cucamonga last season, amazing when you consider he was only 19.

4. Alex Freeland, SS/3B. Drafted in the third round in 2022, Freeland made it to the majors last season and hit .190 in 84 at-bats. But you can’t read anything into that quite yet. He hit .263/384/.451 with triple-A Oklahoma City, with 30 doubles and 16 homers in 508 plate appearances.

5. Mike Sirota, OF. Sirota was chosen in the third round of the 2024 draft by the Reds, who sent him to the Dodgers for Gavin Lux. Sirota split time between Great Lakes and Rancho Cucamonga last season and hit .333/.452/.616 in 270 plate appearances, with 16 doubles and 13 homers.

7. Emil Morales, SS. Morales is only 19 and has hit .322/.423/.566 in 613 plate appearances. Far too soon to predict his future.

8. James Tibbs III, OF. As you can see, the Dodgers have a lot of strong outfield prospects in the minors. Taken in the first round of the 2024 draft by the Giants, Tibbs was included in a package last season to acquire Rafael Devers from the Red Sox in June. Six weeks later, the Dodgers acquired him and Zach Ehrhard for pitcher Dustin May. He hit .269/.407/.493 in 134 at-bats with double-A Tulsa.

10. Ching-Hsien Ko, OF. Ko, from Taiwan, is only 19. He hit .367 in 53 games of Rookie ball last season and .219 in 32 games with Rancho Cucamonga.

So where does that leave us?

Let’s break them down into categories

Top-level player
Cody Bellinger
Corey Seager
Will Smith

Solid major leaguer
Michael Busch
Joc Pederson
Alex Verdugo

Average major leaguer
Gavin Lux
Keibert Ruiz

Could be solid, but too soon to say for sure
Andy Pages

Disappointing
James Outman
Scott Schebler

We’ll never know
Andrew Toles

Complete bust
Jacob Amaya
Willie Calhoun
Yusniel Diaz
Jeter Downs
Kody Hoese
Jeren Kendall
Eddys Leonard
DJ Peters
Luis Rodriguez
Darnell Sweeney
Jorbit Vivas

Too soon to tell
Josue De Paula
Wilman Diaz
Thayron Liranzo
Dalton Rushing
Everyone on the 2025 list.

Six solid to excellent major leaguers, two average ones and 11 busts.

In other news....

—New Dodgers closer Edwin Díaz will pitch for Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic. Not to jinx things, but Díaz tore a tendon in his knee while celebrating a victory in the 2023 WBC and missed the season.

—Shohei Ohtani will not pitch for Japan in the WBC, but he will hit.

—As far as the season is concerned, there will be few, if any, restrictions on Ohtani pitching. “I’m not going to manage him differently as far as each outing,” Dave Roberts said at DodgerFest. “There’s certainly going to be extra time, it’s not a five-day, six-day rotation. So there’s going to be rest in between. But outside of that, it’s not going to be the two-inning, three-inning [start], he’s just going to be used as a normal pitcher.”

—Readers have asked why I didn’t bash DodgerFest like I did in the past. Well, aside from beating a dead horse, the fact is that as long as the Dodgers continue to sell out DodgerFest, sell out the pricey autograph sessions or meet and greets, they have no incentive to lower prices or make it free again. I received emails from more than one person who said they were treating this as, basically, their Disneyland trip this year for their kids, who love the Dodgers. And that’s fine. But as long as things like that happen, prices will not come down.

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And finally

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Until next time...

Have a comment or something you’d like to see in a future Dodgers newsletter? Email me at houston.mitchell@latimes.com. To get this newsletter in your inbox, click here.