Racing! McKinzie and Bolt D’Oro set for Santa Anita Derby rematch

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we learn about the immediate future of McKinzie and Justify.

You heard it here first. Actually, you heard it first on Friday morning, but the rematch everyone wanted of McKinzie and Bolt D’Oro should happen on April 7 in the Santa Anita Derby. The race will be a 1/16 of a mile longer and give us the best 3-year-old rivalry since Nyquist and Exaggerator. However, even they didn’t meet in the Santa Anita Derby as Nyquist was shipped to the Florida Derby, for a $1-million bonus possibility, which he won.

This also means that Justify, the colt that is being compared to American Pharoah, will ship to Oaklawn for the Arkansas Derby on April 14. And if trainer Bob Baffert doesn’t have enough wealth in McKinzie and Justify, he has Solomini as the 3-2 favorite in Saturday’s $900,000 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn.

The news was first sleuthed out by Eric (Manny) Sondheimer, who reported it to newsletter central and we confirmed it with Baffert and wrote this story. (You can read it here.)

It really was the smart move, not that Baffert needs to hear that from us. Justify needs to still qualify for the Kentucky Derby and the Arkansas Derby will be an easier spot for a colt that has only raced twice. Although if he is as talented as most think, it won’t matter.

It will be interesting to see if Mike Smith rides both McKinzie and Justify, as their races are on different days. But, since Smith, as good as he is, can’t ride two horses in the Kentucky Derby, Baffert may look to give another rider a race on their prospective Derby mount before the first Saturday in May.

Santa Anita officials are no doubt delighted to have the McKinzie-Bolt D’Oro rematch, especially since the first meeting was on such a miserable weather day. It will have all the build-up of one of those big boxing matches. Wait, this just in, Santa Anita is lining up Gennady Golovkin (Triple-G) to present the Santa Anita Derby trophy.

It won’t be an autograph session or even any public interaction as Triple-G needs to minimize exposure to any stray germs that might be floating around. Imagine that, germs at a race track? Triple-G is fighting on May 5 (why does that date ring a bell?) to avenge having a win against Canelo Alvarez stolen by judge Adalaide Byrd.

A handicapping tip

We know you look forward to Rob Henie’s weekly contribution on handicapping. Even though he doesn’t have a full race report today, he sent along this little tip to make you a better handicapper.

“In a cheap field lacking much talent we like to find the likely leader at the 1/4 pole which has led members to numerous winners for members of both the WCHR and ECHR. In a weak field, very few runners are making up ground down the lane. If the front runner at the 1/4 pole can be established, they're often an excellent candidate to go wire to wire as even if this front runner begins to weaken, they'll simply be backpedaling in FRONT of other regressing runners. This will present the illusion of a horse on the front end who's ‘finding more’ when in actuality the entire field is going backwards.”

^{The West Coast Handicapping Report can be found at https://www.westcoasthorseracing.com It has been endorsed by leading trainers, handicappers and industry sources.}

Santa Anita review

West Palm Beach came off the pace to take a 1 ¼-length win in Friday’s $56,000 feature, run over a mile on the turf. Toinette was all set to be the favorite in the race but ran off during the load and had to be scratched. That made West Palm Beach the favorite in the filly’s first race in the United States.

Simon Callaghan was the winning trainer with Flavien Prat on board. She paid $4.80, $3.60 and $2.80. Streak Of Luck finished second and Ms Peintour was third.

“We had her about three months,” Callaghan told Mike Willman of Santa Anita. “We think she’s going to be a god filly down the road.”

Santa Anita preview

It’s a pretty good card with three stakes races, four turf races, all with a noon start. But here’s the real headline, the second race has 10 starters. What? The second race has traditionally been where the track puts its smallest field. It’s a maiden claimer. In fact, there is only one race with six starters and all the rest have eight or more. Makes it a great betting card.

The first stakes on St. Patrick’s Day is the $100,000 Irish O’Brien Stakes for Cal-bred fillies and mares going 6 ½ furlongs down the hillside turf course. How About Zero, for trainer Doug O’Neill and jockey Mario Gutierrez, won her last start out down the hill. She’s the morning-line favorite at 8-5. Miss Sunset, for Jeff Bonde and Smith, is the 9-5 second choice. She won five of 10 races last year. It will go off about 1:00 p.m.

The second stakes is the $200,000 Pasadena Stakes going one mile on the turf. Pubilius Syrus is 5-2 favorite. He is three for three at Santa Anita, two of those wins over a mile. Corey Nakatani takes over the ride for Kent Desormeaux, who is serving a three-day suspension. Baffert’s Ax Man is also entered but will only go if the race is taken off the turf. Ax Man is also a possible for the Sunland Stakes. After a great debut, he got caught up in a speed duel and faltered badly down the stretch. Evin Roman takes over the ride from Drayden Van Dyke. The race should go off about 3:45 p.m.

The big race is the Grade 1 $400,000 Santa Margarita for older fillies and mares over 1 1/8 miles. It has a full field of 10, likely because Unqiue Bella, who would have been a huge favorite, passed on the race because of a cough and lost training time. There is no big favorite left, although Moptism, with O’Neill and Gutierrez, is the 7-2 favorite. She’s competed at a very high level, racing at seven different tracks in 10 races last year. She finished second to Unique Bella in her last race, the Santa Maria Stakes. Fault, at 4-1, is the second favorite. Post time is about 4:15 p.m.

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth more $100,000 or more on Saturday. All times PST.

1:04 Santa Anita: $100,000 Irish O’Brien Stakes, Cal-breds, fillies and mares 4 and up, 6 ½ furlongs on the turf. Favorite: How About Zero (8-5)

1:10 Laurel: $100,000 Harrison E. Johnson Memorial Stakes, 3 and up, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Something Awesome (9-5)

1:38 Turfway Park: $100,000 Kentucky Cup Classic Stakes, 4 and up, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Royal Son (2-1)

1:40 Laurel: $100,000 Beyond the Wire Stakes, fillies 3 years old, 1 mile. Favorite: Mo Shopping (2-1)

1:56 Aqueduct: $100,000 Correction Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Startwithhsilver (5-2)

2:04 Gulfstream: Grade 2 $200,000 Inside Information Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Ivy Bell (5-2)

2:14 Turfway Park: Grade 3 $100,000 Bourbonette Oaks, fillies 3 years old, 1 mile. Favorite: Go Noni Go (5-2)

2:40 Laurel: $100,000 Private Terms Stakes, 3 year olds, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Still Having Fun (9-5)

2:55 Oaklawn: $300,000 Essex Handicap, 4 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Dazzling Gem (3-1)

3:00 Turfway Park: Grade 3 $200,000 Jeff Ruby Steaks, 3 year olds, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Hazit, Ride A Comet (5-1)

3:32 Oaklawn: Grade 2 $350,000 Azeri Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Actress (3-1)

3:46 Santa Anita: $200,000 Pasadena Stakes, 3 year olds, 1 mile on the turf. Favorite: Pubilius Syrus (5-2)

4:09 Oaklawn: Grade 2 $900,000 Rebel Stakes, 3 year olds, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Solomini (3-2)

4:18 Santa Anita: Grade 1 $400,000 Santa Margarita Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 1/8 miles on the turf. Favorite: Mopotism (7-2)

Bob Ike’s SA play of the day

NINTH RACE: No. 3 Mended (6-1)

Proving to be one of the best claims in memory, Mended has won 10 of 11 starts since being tagged for $12,500 by John Martin in January 2017. Her one loss during that streak was a huge runner-up effort (by a head) last time in the La Canada (behind Mopotism). One thing is for sure, she will give 100% from start to finish.

Friday’s Result: Toinette ran off before the start of the seventh race and was scratched.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here’s a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Ed Burgart’s LA play of the day

FOURTH RACE: No. 6 Changing Karma (2-1)

He ran to his past class for new trainer Kelly Casteneda in last solid runnerup try for $5,000. I like that his connections keep him above his $2,500 claimed level from two outs ago when he defeated Battle Jet, who since scored a daylight wire-to-wire win for $2,500. With hustling apprentice Edgar Payeras aboard, I expect Changing Karma to get a stalking trip behind pacesetter C J Terror.

Final thought

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Any thoughts, drop me an email at johnacherwa@gmail.com or feed my ego by following me on Twitter @jcherwa

And now the stars of the show, Friday’s results and Saturday’s entries.

HERUNBRIDLEDPOWER broke out a bit, angled in and dueled outside a rival, took the lead into the stretch, kicked clear under urging and held. JUST BOOKIN stalked between horses then a bit off the rail leaving the backstretch, angled in on the turn, came out in upper stretch, split rivals in deep stretch and finished well. TIZ DELITEFUL saved ground stalking the pace, came out leaving the turn and into the stretch and bested the others. BETDESILVERGOLD had good early speed and angled in, dueled inside, fought back on the turn and into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. HOLIDAYINCAMBODIA broke out and a bit slowly, stalked three deep then outside a rival into and on the turn, came three wide into the stretch and weakened.

LINE DRIVE sped to the early lead, dueled inside, inched away leaving the turn and held on gamely under urging. KRISSYS MANICURE stumbled badly at the start, went up three deep then dueled outside the winner, stalked off the rail leaving the turn and into the stretch and continued willingly to hold second. AVAIL stalked outside then three deep on the backstretch and outside a rival into the turn, continued off the inside leaving the turn and three wide into the stretch and also went on willingly late. FRACAS saved ground stalking the pace, came out off heels into the turn, continued outside a rival then three wide into the stretch and weakened. BAYTOWN JULIET pulled some and bid between horses then stalked between foes or a bit off the rail, angled to the inside into turn, came under urging on the bend and weakened in the drive.

TRUSTINI stalked off the rail then three deep leaving the turn, was fanned four wide into the stretch, gained the lead outside foes in midstretch and proved best under some urging. PRINCESS ARENI dueled outside a rival then stalked off the rail on the turn, re-bid three wide between foes into the stretch and in midstretch and held second. MONGOLIAN EMPIRE bumped at the break, settled off the rail then a bit off the fence into the turn, angled to the inside on the turn and finished with interest inside. SEA GLASS broke in and bumped a rival, had good early speed and dueled off the rail, inched away on the turn, fought back off the inside in the stretch and weakened some late. LADYBUG chased off the rail then outside on the turn, continued four wide leaving the turn, was fanned five wide into the stretch, drifted in despite left handed pressure in the drive and lacked the needed rally. SEE THE WORLD bumped at the start, saved ground stalking the pace, fell back and came out on the turn, entered the stretch three wide and weakened.

MUCHOS BESOS sent to the early lead inside, set the pace along the rail, dueled on the backstretch and second turn, came out into the stretch and held on gamely between foes late under urging. DUKES UP angled in and chased outside a rival, came out on the second turn and four wide into the stretch and went on willingly five wide late. BEDEVILED saved ground chasing the pace, also came out on the second turn and three deep into the stretch, angled in some past midstretch and rallied between foes. STORMIN MONARCHO sent along three deep early, stalked off the rail on the first turn, bid outside the winner to duel for command on the backstretch and second turn, was fanned out some into the stretch, fought back outside the winner through the final furlong and was edged for third between foes late. SANAVI angled in and stalked inside, continued along the rail on the second turn and in the stretch and went on willingly but was outfinished. I'LL WRAP IT UP chased outside a rival, came out into the stretch, was in a bit close off heels past the sixteenth pole and lacked the needed late response.

LIFE'S BLESSINGS pulled three deep then outside a rival, steadied briefly early on the first turn, bid outside the runner-up to duel for the lead, took the advantage into the stretch, inched clear under urging, drifted inward in the final furlong and was under good handling late. NOT NOW CAROLYN sped to the early lead, inched away briefly on the first turn, dueled inside on the backstretch and second turn, fought back into the stretch, then could not match the winner but was clearly second best. RESKY BUSINESS three deep early, stalked outside a rival then between foes leaving the backstretch and off the rail on the second turn, came three wide into the stretch and bested the others. DEMIGODDESS angled in and saved ground stalking the pace and weakened in the stretch. TINK'S TWIRL chased off the rail, went up three deep leaving the backstretch, continued outside on the second turn and three wide into the stretch and also weakened.

LEWIS VALE saved ground stalking the pace, bid inside on the second turn to take the lead, inched away off the fence into the stretch and held on gamely under left handed urging. SENSE OF GLORY had speed outside then angled in and set the pace a bit off the rail, fought back outside the winner on the second turn, was carried out some into the stretch and continued willingly through the drive. EL SUPER stalked outside the winner then a bit off the rail on the second turn and into the stretch, angled in past midstretch and edged a rival for the show. WINNING CAUSEWAY chased outside a rival, continued outside on the second turn and three deep into the stretch, drifted in some late and was edged for third. HARROVIAN stalked inside then a bit off the rail on the first turn, angled in and saved ground tracking the leaders on the backstretch, dropped back on the second turn and weakened.

WEST PALM BEACH (IRE) chased outside a rival then three deep five eighths out, continued alongside a foe, came out on the second turn and four wide into the stretch, bid outside the pacesetter in midstretch, gained the lead nearing the sixteenth pole, edged away and held under urging. STREAK OF LUCK angled in and settled outside a rival then inside on the backstretch, also came out on the second turn and three wide into the stretch, angled out in upper stretch and finished well. MS PEINTOUR stalked between horses then bid three deep between foes leaving the backstretch and into the second turn, angled in between foes leaving that turn, continued between rivals in midstretch and bested the others. MEDAGLIA GOLD sped to the early lead, set the pace inside, met bids leaving the backstretch, kicked clear again on the second turn, battled inside in midstretch and weakened late. MAPIT angled in and stalked inside, continued along the rail in the stretch and was outfinished. TAPITHA BONITA stalked inside, bid between horses a half mile out, tracked between on the second turn, was in tight nearing the quarter pole and weakened. MS DUPREE stalked three deep, bid four wide leaving the backstretch and into the second turn, continued four wide then three wide leaving that turn and into the stretch and weakened. HOLY DIVER saved ground chasing the pace, dropped back on the second turn, came out into the stretch and gave way.

MAGICAL MORE broke a bit slowly, settled just off the rail then outside a rival on the turn, came out past midstretch and surged late under urging to collar the runner-up nearing the wire. ELEAZAR WARRIOR had speed off the rail then angled in, dueled inside, inched away a bit off the fence in midstretch, drifted inward in deep stretch and was caught late. AWESOME E K dueled between horses then outside the runner-up on the turn and into the stretch and just held third. OVER PROMISED chased between rivals then inside on the turn and through the stretch and was edged for the show. HACK angled in and pressed the pace three deep then stalked on the turn, continued outside a rival into and through the stretch and was edged for a minor award between foes late. CONTENTO broke slowly, settled off the rail, came three deep into the stretch, drifted in a bit and found his best stride late. ROYAL SEEKER chased three deep then outside a rival on the turn, came three wide into the stretch and could not offer the necessary late kick. SLUGGING TIGER saved ground chasing the pace, dropped back on the turn and into the stretch and gave way.