Racing! First Kentucky Derby points race around the corner

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we head into a quiet weekend of racing.

The road to the Kentucky Derby officially starts this Saturday with the Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs. What, you say? We thought you said the road started with the Del Mar Futurity? Yes, I did.

Truth is, this Saturday actually starts with the races that have a point total associated with them. And, winning one of these only gets you about a quarter of the way to qualifying. Generally, you need about 40 points to get into the Derby. With injuries and scratches, you can make it in with 30-something points.

Last year, Justify ran only one qualifying race, the Santa Anita Derby, which along with the Louisiana Derby, UAE Derby, Florida Derby, Wood Memorial, Blue Grass Stakes and Arkansas Derby are worth 100 points and a free pass to Louisville.

In fact, if you win the Risen Star, Fountain of Youth, Gotham, San Felipe, Tampa Bay Derby, Rebel or Sunland Derby you get 50 points and another ticket to Churchill Downs. Now, if no horse wins two of those races (unlikely) you’ve already got 13 spots filled. If you throw in the two qualifying paths from Europe and Japan, you have 15 of the 20 spots.

What all that means is the Derby is filled with horses who are peaking at the right time, near the first Saturday in May. After the Iroqious, the next points race, worth 10-4-2-1, is the American Pharoah (formerly the FrontRunner) at Santa Anita on Sept. 29.

There are 35 points races in the U.S. (and Dubai), with Santa Anita and Aqueduct hosting the most with five. Oaklawn has four, Churchill, Keeneland, Fairgrounds and Gulfstream get three with Tampa Bay getting two. The tracks that get one race are Los Alamitos, Golden Gate, Belmont, Remington Park, Turfway, Sunland and Meydan in Dubai.

Now, even though we made the case that none of these early leadup races really mean anything, it doesn’t mean we’re going to ignore them. We need to keep you interested until we get to Jon White’s highly popular weekly rankings in the early spring.

One more thing, who were the last five winners of the Iroquois? The Tabulator, Not This Time, Cocked and Loaded, Lucky Player and Cleburne. ‘Nuff said.

Los Alamitos review

With three races worth $40,000 it was difficult to determine the feature. But even more difficult was figuring out when Los Alamitos has show betting. The first race had five horses and there was show betting. The second race had five horses and there was no show betting. We think we know the answer but have asked Los Al for ts thinking on it. We hope to get their response for tomorrow’s newsletter.

So, Croatian won a hard fought stretch drive over Trojan Spirit to win the maiden special weight for horses going a mile for a purse of $40,000. Joe Talamo got the horse up in time. Croatian paid $10.60, $5.80 and $4.60 for trainer Bob Baffert.

Favorite Hotitude won the fourth, a maiden special weight for Cal-bred 2-year-old fillies going 5 ½ furlongs for a purse of $40,000. Martin Pedroza guided the Kristin Mulhall filly to payouts of $3.00, $2.40 and $2.10.

Finally, Convince won the other maiden special weight, for fillies and mares going a mile for $40,000. She paid $6.20, $3.40 and $2.80 for jockey Mario Gutierrez. Peter Eurton is the trainer.

Los Alamitos preview

Friday brings an eight-race card starting at 2 p.m. The field sizes are about the same as on Thursday but this card has an allowance. The feature is the fifth, an allowance/optional claimer for fillies and mares going a mile. It only has five starters.

The favorite is Whirling, at 2-1. She has won one of her four starts and her last two starts were in allowance races at Santa Anita and Del Mar. Martin Garcia rides the Richard Mandella filly. The second favorite, at 5-2, is Just a Smidge for Baffert and Assael Espinoza. She is one ofr seven lifetime, having won her first race. They had high hopes for her as she’s run two Grade 1s, one Grade 2 and Grade 3, although she didn’t win any of them.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 5, 6, 7, 7, 5, 7, 6, 7.

Jose Contreras LRC play of the day

FIFTH RACE: No.3 Chickatini (3-1)

She didn’t break all that sharp, was rushed up to duel along the rail through some swift fractions and was able to hold on for third in a better-than-looked effort as the second biggest price on the field. I like that she has speed, I like that she has a win over this track and I like that Evin Roman was aboard for the win two starts back. Her main rivals in this field appear to be closers and i’m hoping Chickatini is able to shake away with a big lead entering the stretch.

Thursday’s result: As the favorite, Bob’s All In never got engaged and faded in the stretch to finish sixth.

Jose Contreras is an excellent handicapper and well known on social media and familiar to racing fans watching on TVG. You can follow him on Twitter at @losponies or check him out at his website.

Los Alamitos nighttime weekend preview

This weekly segment is in the hands of Orlando Gutierrez, marketing and media maven at Los Al. So, the floor is yours, Orlando.

“The top 2-year-old quarter-horse filly of 2017 and the top 2-year-old filly of 2018 will both be in action this weekend at Los Alamitos. J Fire Up, the AQHA champion 2-year-old last year, will look to avenge her fourth place finish in the Governor's Cup Derby final when she faces the Derby winner Black Fryday and runner-up Chance To Fire in the second of three trials to the $152,000 PCQHRA Breeders Derby on Saturday.

“It was a rare loss for J Fire, who entered the Derby final having won eight of her first 10 career starts. The Kiddy Up filly was bumped at the start and from there it was too tall a mountain to climb against fast starts from both Black Fryday and Chance To Fire. J Fire Up enters her 400-yard trial after a strong turn and work of 12.20 seconds at 220 yards. Jose Nicasio will ride the the Kiddy Up filly from the eight.

“Ron Hartley's Black Fryday came into the Governor's Cup Derby in great form after hitting the board in his six previous starts. On Derby night, the Favorite Cartel gelding ran the best race of his career, breaking sharply from the nine on the way to a 1 1/4 length win. For jockey Eddie Garcia, the win helped him become the first jockey at Los Alamitos to reach 150 career stakes wins. Garcia will ride Black Fryday for trainer John Cooper from the two.

“Abigail Kawananakoa's Chance To Fire ran second in the Derby final, which matched his runner-up effort to J Fire Up in last year's Governor's Cup Futurity. A top three finisher in eight of nine career starts, the Walk Thru Fire gelding is not the quickest out of the gate, but he accelerates fast and often displays strong finishes. Cody Jensen will ride for trainer Chris O'Dell. The PCQHRA Breeders Derby final is Oct. 5.

“On Sunday night, Jeff and Kim Pitcher’s undefeated filly Wave Her Down is the marquee name in the trials to the Grade 2 PCQHRA Breeders Futurity. The First Down Dash filly won the Grade 1 Ed Burke Million Futurity in her last start and is three for three in her career. The exciting filly is a full sister to champions Ocean Runaway and Wave Carver, each a winner of the prestigious Champion of Champions at Los Alamitos. A total of 50 juveniles will be in action in Sunday’s trials with the 10 fastest qualifiers returning for the final on Oct. 6.

“Friday’s eight-race program will be headed by eight sophomore fillies squaring off in the Girl Secrets Handicap. The field will include Grade 1 stakes finalists Matilda Czech, Remember To Dash and SC Vapor Trail.”

Ed Burgart’s LA play of the day

EIGHTH RACE: No. 5 Better Than Ever (7-2)

This sophomore filly has really improved in last three outs and her early quickness is a huge plus at the 300-yard distance of this overnight handicap. She was only beaten a head when third in a 350-yard stakes two outs ago and scored a 1 ½-length maiden victory at 300 yards three races back. Matilda Czech, the 5-2 morning-line favorite who lost a nose photo in last year’s Golden State Million, looks vulnerable after a six-month layoff. Matilda Czech’s last three wins have come at 400 yards.

Final thought

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Now, the stars of the show, Thursday’s results and Friday’s entries.

EASY KEEPER was bumped leaving the gate, settled off the rail, tracked leaders three wide, came out further around last bend, reeled in leaders from well off the rail, led past sixteenth marker and cleared late. RED CLEM set pressured pace from the inside, briefly lost lead in upper stretch, fought back along the rail, exchanged light bumps with rival in the drive and gamely gained second. R B EYE between foes early, forced the pace then dueled outside rival, gained brief lead entering the stretch, exchanged light bumps with same foe in the drive and was out finished for second. FLASHY SHAQ caught three deep into first turn, remained off the rail stalking the pace then weakened in the stretch. NO NEW FRIENDS broke out bit and bumped rival, was bit rank into initial bend, chased inside then gave way in the final quarter.

IMPRESSION established the lead in the run to the first turn, set the pace off the rail down the backstretch, maintained a clear advantage in the lane, was kept to his task in midstretch and was clear to the wire. JERSEY'S HEAT stalked between horses on the backstretch, angled in on the second turn, came out in the stretch, could not catch the winner but was clearly second best. GRACIDA stalked off the rail on the backstretch and inside rivals on the second turn, remained inside in the stretch, weakened but held third to the wire. ACCREDITATION stalked three deep around the first turn and down the backstretch, came into the stretch four wide and weakened. STYLISTICS UNITED pulled into the first turn, stalked inside the winner on the backstretch, fell back on the second turn and gave way.

CROATIAN was sent up outside foe leaving first turn, dueled outside foe, drifted out some entering the lane, hooked up in stretch-long battle, exchanged light bumps with rival and gamely prevailed. TROJAN SPIRIT contested the pace from along the rail then slightly off the fence, exchanged light bumps with winner through the stretch and narrowly missed. IRISH SPIRIT tucked in behind dueling leaders, tracked top pair from the inside into the stretch, had rider lost his whip nearing eighth marker and weakened some late while drifting out. SELLWOOD settled off the pace, chased off the rail then four wide to the second bend, continued on same path and weakened in the drive. MR CLASSICAL caught four wide into first turn, stalked from off the rail, was three deep passing half-mile marker then between foes and also weakened. COLD BREW KID prominent early from between rivals, dropped back leaving the back stretch, came out in upper stretch and faded. CAPALL broke out and bit slow, raced five wide early, later angled over and found the fence but was no late threat.

HOTITUDE bumped with outside foe leaving the gate, had speed outside, forced three wide, gained advantage later on the turn, kicked clear from off the rail in the stretch and proved best while well in hand late. BLUEBERRY PRINCESS tracked pace while outside foe, remained two wide into the stretch, surged past inside rival in mid stretch and drew clear for the place. SUPERHOTAMOLLY sped to short lead early, dueled inside around the turn, could not match the winner through the lane and weakened in the final eighth. THE PET bumped with winner at the start, stalked three wide then outside runner-up on the turn and lacked needed late punch. PERFECT ICE STORM hopped and hesitated to be off well behind the field, trailed from along the rail, came out some in mid stretch and passed tiring rivals. CAUSE WHY reserved from the inside, saved ground throughout and lacked needed response. QUEEN CARMELITA chased from the outside, continued four wide on the turn, came in slightly leaving the bend and also in the stretch while no late factor.

ZIPPY GROOM unhurried while bit off the rail, angled four wide on the turn, came out further in upper stretch, roused then closed strongly to inhale inside rivals and be along in time. OUR TIGER'S BOY prominent from off the rail early, bid three wide approaching the stretch, reached the front inside quarter marker, inched away in the drive, drifted out some nearing the wire and could not stave off the winner. FENDER BENDER stalked from between rivals or off the fence, came three wide into the lane, angled out bit further, loomed nearing eighth marker but was out finished. NOVA bumped with inside rival at the start, tracked pace while three wide, came four wide into the stretch and angled in some through the drive. MR CRUZE forced the early issue from along the rail, continued inside and gained advantage later on the turn, continued inside and weakened bit in the late going. BOB'S ALL IN chased from the inside, hugged the rail around the turn and through the stretch while never menacing late. HOLLYWOOD DANCER broke out slightly and bumped foe, sped to the front, set pace from off the rail, lost control nearing the stretch and weakened through the lane.

CONVINCE stalked the leader off the rail down the backstretch, bid for the lead on the second turn, took a clear lead approaching the furlong marker and held the advantage to the wire. JOURNAL ENTRY stalked between horses on the backstretch, came out for the stretch turn, raced three deep at the furlong marker, and gained the place on the wire. SENSIBLE THOUGHTS chased off the rail on the backstretch, angled in on the second turn, remained inside through the lane and was edged for second on the wire. TEQUILA SUNRISE chased off the rail, moved up three deep on the second turn, came into the stretch five wide and lacked the needed rally in the final furlong. NOW BLESSED took the lead leaving the first turn, opened a clear advantage on the backstretch, was challenged from both sides at the top of the lane and weakened between horses in the final furlong. SHE FOX stalked off the rail on the backstretch, came into the lane three deep, weakened and was eased through the final furlong.

LAMBO LUXX forced the early pace outside, gained lead past three-eights marker, edged away from off the rail, dug in when challenged in deep stretch and lasted under right hand urging. FAST PASS stalked from between foes, came four wide into the stretch, closed gap on winner under strong asking nearing the wire and narrowly missed outside winner. NEW KARMA tracked pace while three deep and outside runner-up, was fanned five wide entering the stretch, remained outside same rival in the drive and got up in final strides to grab third. MONTEREY SHALE forced the early issue from the inside, shifted out on the turn, was three wide exiting the turn and inside the runner-up, came in some through the drive and was out finished for third. TASUNKE WITCO reserved from off the rail, chased three wide around the turn then four wide into the stretch and came out further through the lane while no threat. STORMIN MONARCHO stalked from slightly off the lane, remained on two wide path and lacked needed response. ISEE IT IN HISEYES rushed up from between foes to grab brief lead, relinquished control on the turn, gave way steadily from the inside in the stretch, was eased in he late going and walked off.

PRINCESS LEIA forced or stalked from slightly off the rail, moved up and bid between foes on the second turn, drifted out bit entering the lane, gained advantage a quarter from home and turned back foes from both sides under left hand urging. IF YOU LIKE IT tracked pace from the outside, challenged three abreast midway on the last turn, was fanned out a bit into the lane, continued outside and held the place. SOUGHT MORE PEP stepped to the front, set pace from the inside, resisted when challenged on the second turn, remained inside and weakened bit late. DIZZY DIVA stalked while bit off the fence, chased four wide into the lane and did not threaten. ZUZANNA reserved early, angled over, saved ground thereafter and did not rally. CALLIE MESA unhurried early while taken to the rail, chased from the inside to the stretch and also failed to menace late.