Racing! Can fixed-odds betting save the sport?

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we get an upset in the San Vincente.

Sometimes on a Monday we like to give you something to think about, so let’s look at the latest white paper by the Thoroughbred Idea Foundation, which came out earlier this month.

If you want to read the executive summary, just click here. If you want to read the entire report, just click here.

But, here’s the crux of it, for racing to save itself, it needs to consider or adopt fixed-odds betting, meaning getting rid of the current mutuel-pool system and making the tracks, ADWs and others assume the responsibility of beating the bettors. The report also suggests that takeout at the tracks is too high to be competitive.

I apologize for giving a basic primer, but here are the fundamental differences between sports betting and betting on horse racing.

In sports wagering, it’s the job of the sports book to equalize betting between the two teams and it makes its profit from the vig, or the surcharge for a losing bet. Sometimes, it doesn’t work that way and the book makes or loses a lot of money, but most of the time it works out. The takeout on sports betting is in the 5-10% range and bettors get the price that is applicable when the bet is made.

In horse racing, a mutuel pool is made up whereby the bettors determine the odds based on the amount of money that is put on each horse after the track (and others) take their share. The track is usually at no risk, unless there is a state mandated minimum payout, but that doesn’t happen very often. The takeout is somewhere in the 20% range, two to three times what a sports book takes from a bet. But, the track has to pay to produce the product and the sports book doesn’t.

OK, yes, there are a ton of twists and turns that are not mentioned here. But this is the basic financial model.

So, the Thoroughbred Idea Foundation is suggesting that bettors get the odds on a horse when the bet is placed, much like models in Europe and other areas of the world, which uses various forms of bookmaking. The group says it is essential if the sport is to compete with sports betting.

“Over roughly the next two to three years, racing must adapt to these new market conditions – accepting fixed-odds and exchange wagering on its product,” the report said, “developing a new funding model to support the sport in light of this disruptive, well-financed and aggressive competition; significantly boosting and improving our marketing efforts; and innovating to create new types of bets for customers who will soon be taken by agile, forward thinking sports betting outlets.”

I’ll join the many who say that bettors would support fixed-odds betting. No question. It would also make the idea of odds changes after the race starts a moot point.

The report goes on to say, “The cost of horse racing betting in today’s market—through takeout—is too high.”

It’s worth talking through all the points. And here’s an idea. Even though it has proven to work outside the U.S., how about tracks here do some experimenting, maybe one race a card or some form of making it a novelty to examine betting patterns and getting a better idea of the financial model’s strengths and weaknesses.

This is usually where I suggest California be the trial area, but the fact is the different entities within the sport in this state don’t work all that well together. California is too complicated to try it here. So, how about Florida or Maryland, two jurisdictions that are very friendly to what the tracks want to do.

The bottom line is that I (and many of you) just don’t have the faith that the sport will move quick enough and legalized sports wagering will wash over horse racing because of its decision-making paralysis.

The report gives you things to think about, although I’m not sure you’re going have any “ah hah” moments. Again, something to ponder.

Final Derby future pool odds

Here are the final odds of Kentucky Derby Pool No. 2.

1. Bourbon War, 31-1

2. Coliseum, 22-1

3. Game Winner 5-1

4. Global Campaign 22-1

5. Gray Attempt 99-1

6. Gunmetal Gray 34-1

7. Harvey Wallbanger 28-1

8. Hidden Scroll 7-1

9. Improbable 7-1

10. Instagrand 10-1

11. Knicks Go 78-1

12. Limonite 60-1

13. Maximus Mischief 38-1

14. Mucho Gusto 23-1

15. Network Effect 40-1

16. Owendale 99-1

17. Signalman 28-1

18. Tacitus 96-1

19. Tax 63-1

20. Vekoma 43-1

21. Walking Thunder 99-1

22. War of Will 17-1

23. Win Win Win 35-1

24. Mutuel Field/All others 5-2

Upon further review

In the recap of Saturday’s Thunder Road Stakes, I said River Boyne didn’t fire. He finished a disappointing fourth. A couple of you took exception with that characterization, saying he just got blocked by other horses. OK, we can go with that.

Santa Anita’s horizontal havoc

Continued rain at Santa Anita forced the track to take the seventh and ninth races off the turf after the start of the Rainbow Six and eight minutes before the start of late Pick Five. Both races were on the 6 ½ furlong downhill course. There are always greater safety concerns on that course because of the momentum coming down the hill and also because of the dirt crossover. The water that can pool where turf goes to dirt (or vice versa) is a major concern. I’m sure most of us would rather irritate some bettors than put jockeys and horses at risk.

The question remains, and I have no answer, is could the decision have been made earlier?

It didn’t really hurt the seventh race, if you can overlook the chaos of having handicapped for one surface and having them run on another, as far as horses dropping out. The field went from six to five. But the ninth race had more scratches than a dog with fleas.

Those who played the Rainbow Six got familiar with CHRB Rule 1976.9 which says: “If the racing surface changes from turf to dirt or dirt to turf in any race of a Pick (N) pool, and such change was not announced to the public before the close of wagering on the Pick (N) pool, all wagers on such race shall be considered winning wagers for the purpose of the Pick (N) pool.”

It did not affect the Pick Five because the announcement was before post.

Santa Anita review

Your best view into Sunday’s stakes races comes from colleague Eric (Manny) Sondheimer, who braved the rain while I sat at home. Read his account right here.

But, we’ll do a quick recap anyway.

Apache Princess had a great trip on the rail to win the Grade 3 $100,000 Sweet Life Stakes, which was moved from the 6 ½ furlong downhill turf course to the dirt. The race was restricted to 3-year-old fillies. Kent Desormeaux rode the filly confidently through the early stages of the race and made his move on a clear inside path entering the stretch to win by 3 ¼ lengths.

The Keith Desormeaux-trained filly paid $4.60, $2.60 and $2.40. Thriving was second and Splashy Kisses was third.

The Grade 2 $200,000 San Vincente, for 3-year-olds going seven furlongs, had an unexpected winner when Sparky Ville upset two promising Bob Baffert colts in a field of five. Dessman, the “other Baffert” in the race behind Coliseum, seemed to have the race in hand but a furious rally by Sparky Ville allowed him to get up and win by a nose.

Jeff Bonde was the winning trainer Joel Rosario the rider. Sparky Ville paid $16.80, $5.60 and $2.40. Dessman was second and Coliseum was third.

Bonde was putting on a little show as TVG caught him doing some steps as he was coming down to the track.

“I was absolutely dancing into the Winner’s Circle,” Bonde said. “It was so exciting and Joel [Rosario] has been like one of my kids ever since he came from Bay Meadows. We tease each other a lot. … So, it’s wonderful to win with him.

“This horse seems like he’s more adept at seven furlongs to a mile so I’m not sure he wants a mile and a quarter.”

Big races review

A look at graded stakes or races worth more $100,000 or more on Sunday.

Aqueduct (8): $100,000 Biogio’s Rose Stakes, NY-bred fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 mile. Winner: Frostie Anne ($21.40)

Santa Anita (7): Grade 3 $100,000 Sweet Life Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 6 ½ furlongs, moved to dirt. Winner: Apache Princess ($4.60)

Santa Anita (8): Grade 2 $200,000 San Vicente Stakes, 3-year-olds, 7 furlongs. Winner: Sparky Ville ($16.80)

Late Saturday

Delta Downs (7): $100,000 Louisiana Premier Night Matron, La-bred fillies and mares 4 and up, 5 furlongs. Winner: Ours to Run ($3.40)

Delta Downs (8): $100,000 Louisiana Premier Night Prince, La-bred 3-year-olds, 1 mile. Winner: Shang ($9.80)

Delta Downs (9): $150,000 Louisiana Premier Night Championship, La-bred 4 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Winner: Grand Luwegee ($24.20)

Delta Downs (10): $125,000 Louisiana Premier Night Distaff, La-bred fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 mile. Winner: Hyper Piper ($20.40)

Delta Downs (11): $100,000 Louisiana Premier Night Sprint, La-bred 4 and up, 5 furlongs. Winner: Wonder Run ($24.20)

Final thought

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Any thoughts, you can reach me at johnacherwa@gmail.com. You can also feed my ego by following me on Twitter @jcherwa

Now, here are the star of the show, Sunday’s results. See you on Thursday.

STUBBINS stalked outside the runner-up, came three wide into the stretch and rallied under left handed urging while drifting out a bit to catch that rival nearing the wire. ONTHEWAYTONEVRLAND (IRE) close up stalking the pace just off the rail, bid outside the pacesetter to gain the lead into the stretch, kicked clear and held on well but was caught late. VANTASTIC a step slow to begin, saved ground stalking the pace, came out in midstretch and bested the others. DIAMOND BLITZ sped to the early lead outside a rival, inched away and angled in, set the pace inside, fought back into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. URBAN LIGHT (IRE) broke slowly, was roused early, chased a bit off the rail, came out leaving the hill and three wide into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. THIN LINE stalked outside a rival, came into the stretch between horses and weakened. Rail on hill at 7 feet.

BABY BEAR'S SOUP had good early speed and dueled inside, inched away on the turn, came bit off the rail into the stretch and held on gamely under urging. STRINGENT stalked a bit off the rail, came out three deep leaving the turn and into the stretch and continued willingly to be second best. RUN MACHO RUN saved ground chasing the pace throughout and held third. PAPA TURF sped to the early lead off the rail, dueled outside the winner then stalked a bit off the inside on the turn, was between horses into the stretch and was edged for the show. SWORD FIGHTER chased outside then off the rail, came three wide into the stretch, angled inward in upper stretch and lacked the needed rally.

IRON CURTAIN was sent between horses to press the pace then stalked outside a rival, bid between foes into the stretch to gain the lead in upper stretch and held on gamely under urging. CAPTAIN N. BARRON chased off the rail then outside on the turn, came three wide into the stretch, bid outside the winner in the drive and continued willingly to the end. TEMPLE KNIGHTS was sent along inside early, stalked from the rail, was in a bit tight into the stretch, came out for room in upper stretch, went around the pacesetter in midstretch and edged a rival for the show. DOHENY BEACH had speed between horses then chased off the rail, angled in some for the turn, came out into the stretch and again in upper stretch and was edged for third. GETALOADOFTHIS dueled between foes then inched away into the turn, set the pace a bit off the rail, drifted to the inside in the stretch and weakened. MIKEYS GLORY had speed six wide then stalked outside on the backstretch and turn, came three wide into the stretch and lacked a further response. SKAGIT RIVER had speed between horses then stalked inside, came out into the stretch and again in upper stretch and did not rally. DESERT MOVIE chased off the rail then outside a rival on the turn, continued three wide into the stretch, was forced out some in upper stretch and weakened.

CEE SAM'S GIRL chased a bit off the rail, came out on the second turn, took the lead three wide into the stretch, inched away under urging in midstretch and held on gamely. PROPER DRINK three deep nearing the first turn, stalked outside a rival, bid outside the pacesetter to gain the lead on the second turn, inched away leaving that turn, fought back a bit off the fence in deep stretch and continued willingly. TRAPPIZA angled in on the first turn and stalked inside, was in tight into the second turn then steadied off heels leaving that turn, came out around a rival into the stretch, angled out some and closed willingly. LUCKY VAL stalked inside then a bit off the rail, split horses leaving the second turn, found the rail again into the stretch, bid inside past midstretch and was outfinished. REINAHERMOSA chased inside then just off the fence, came out on the second turn and three wide into the stretch and also was outfinished. MAJESTIC AUTHORITY sped to the early lead, set the pace inside, dueled briefly on the second turn, dropped back leaving that turn and into the stretch and gave way, then was eased in the final furlong.

SWIRLING chased inside then a bit off the rail, went outside a rival on the turn, came out four wide into the stretch, angled in under urging in midstretch and again in deep stretch and rallied to get up along the inside nearing the wire. CHRISTY JACKSON stalked between horses then outside a rival on the turn, came out some in the stretch and finished willingly three deep on the line. NAUGHTY SOPHIE sped to the early lead, angled in and set the pace a bit off the rail then inside, drifted out a bit in deep stretch and was caught between the top pair late. RED SHELBY stalked a bit off the rail then inside, came out slightly in the stretch, was a bit crowded by the winner in deep stretch and lacked a rally. HAILEY RACHELE had speed outside then stalked four wide, continued outside on the turn and three deep into the stretch, was forced in a bit in midstretch and did not rally. LOVELY LINDA had speed between foes then stalked between horses, continued a bit off the rail on the turn and into the stretch and weakened. QUIZLET saved ground chasing the pace throughout and weakened in the stretch. The stewards conducted an inquiry into the stretch run of the winner but made no change when they ruled the runners slightly bothered by that one did not alter the original order of finish.

ROCKANDAHARDPLACE five wide into the first turn, stalked outside, bid three deep to gain the advantage leaving the second turn, kicked clear under urging, drifted in and proved best. NATIONS HOPE three deep into the first turn, dueled between horses then outside a rival on the second turn and between foes again a quarter mile out, drifted in some in the stretch and was clearly second best. JONATHANTOQUICK saved ground chasing the pace, came out into the stretch and picked up the show. TANKER chased off the rail then inside on the second turn, swung three wide into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. NEW SALUTE bobbled at the start, chased outside a rival, came out into the stretch and also lacked a rally. SOONER BETTER dropped back off the rail and trailed off the inside, came four wide into the stretch and was not a threat. CARRIBEAN COLOURS bobbled at the start, had speed between foes then angled in and dueled inside, drifted out a bit on the second turn then angled back in and had little left for the drive. MAGIC BRO chased inside then a bit off the rail, came three wide into the stretch and weakened. EMPIRICAL DATA four wide into the first turn, dueled three deep, dropped back between foes on the second turn, angled to the inside entering the stretch and gave way.

APACHE PRINCESS saved ground stalking the pace, bid inside into the stretch to gain the lead, inched away under some urging then had the rider lose the whip just past the eighth pole and won clear under steady handling. THRIVING (GB) stalked between horses then bid between rivals and dueled leaving the backstretch and on the turn, was floated out a bit into the stretch, continued just off the rail in the drive and narrowly held second. SPLASHY KISSES stalked three deep then bid three wide leaving the backstretch to duel for the lead, was fanned four wide into the stretch and was edged for the place. NOMIZAR sped to the early lead, set the pace a bit off the rail then dueled inside into and on the turn, came off the fence and was between horses into the stretch, drifted inward in midstretch and weakened. FULL ECLIPSE settled off the rail chasing the pace, came four wide into the stretch and did not rally.

SPARKY VILLE stalked the pace inside, was in a bit tight off heels leaving the turn, came out around a rival for room into the stretch and rallied under urging to get up nearing the wire. DESSMAN broke a bit slowly, went up three deep to press the pace then stalked outside a rival, bid again three wide into and on the turn, took the lead nearing the stretch, inched away and drifted inward in the drive, fought back in deep stretch and was edged late. COLISEUM also broke a bit slowly, moved up between horses to press the pace, battled between foes leaving the turn, also drifted inward in the stretch and bested the others. SYNTHESIS settled inside then was taken off the rail to chase the pace, came a bit wide into the stretch and lacked a further response. SAVAGERY broke out a bit but on top, sped to the early lead and angled in, dueled inside, fought back on the turn, dropped back into the stretch and weakened.

FIERY LADY stalked outside a rival, moved up to bid leaving the turn, was fanned five wide into the stretch, took the lead outside a foe, drifted in a bit and won clear under a late left handed tap of the whip and steady handling then a hold late. HELEN'S TIGER had speed inside to set the pace, drifted out and fought back leaving the turn, continued to drift out into the stretch, fought back in midstretch, drifted in some late and was second best. SCREENSHOT settled off the rail, angled in leaving the backstretch, found the rail on the turn, continued inside and picked up the show. ARCTIC ROLL (GB) stalked a bit off the rail, bid outside the runner-up on the turn, was fanned four wide between foes into the stretch and weakened.