Sam Farmer’s NFL picks for Week 10

Quarterback Tom Brady and the Patriots are a 13 1/2-point favorite over the Rams this week.
(Mike McCarn / Associated Press)

The Times’ NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week’s matchups. Lines according to (O/U = over/under). Last week’s record 9-4 (.692); season 73-45-2 (.619). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 8-5 (.615); season 64-65-4 (.496). Buffalo, Detroit, Indianapolis and Oakland have the week off.


Kansas City (6-2) at Carolina (3-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m.


Chiefs 21, Panthers 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 705.

Line: Panthers by 3. O/U: 44.

The Chiefs don’t blow anybody away, but they know how to grind out victories, winning 16 of 18 regular-season games. They will stop the Panthers’ mini-streak at two wins.


Houston (5-3) at Jacksonville (2-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Texans 24, Jaguars 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 706.

Line: Texans by 2. O/U: 42.

Despite playing pretty well against Kansas City, the Jaguars don’t seem to give 60 minutes of effort once they get down. Houston is winless on the road, but Texans can win here.


Denver (6-3) at New Orleans (4-4)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Broncos 27, Saints 24

TV: None. DirecTV: 707.

Line: Saints by 3. O/U: 49 1/2.

Drew Brees might be able to move the ball on Denver’s defense at bit, but it comes at a cost. He’ll get knocked around. Meanwhile, the New Orleans defense is Saints’ weakness.


L.A. Rams (3-5) at N.Y. Jets (3-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Jets 13, Rams 9

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 708.

Line: Jets by 2. O/U: 40.

Two similar teams — three wins each, good defensive lines, questions at quarterback.… Rams offense has scored one touchdown in each of last two games. Tough to win like that on the road.


Atlanta (6-3) at Philadelphia (4-4)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Eagles 27, Falcons 23

TV: None. DirecTV: 709.

Line: Falcons by 2. O/U: 50.

The Eagles have lost two in a row, and the Falcons have won two in a row. Those streaks end here. Philadelphia’s defense will stop the run, get to Matt Ryan, and get the victory.


Chicago (2-6) at Tampa Bay (3-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Buccaneers 27, Bears 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 710.

Line: Bears by 1. O/U: 46.

Running back Doug Martin returns for the Buccaneers, and Jameis Winston is better than whoever Chicago has at quarterback. Bears are fighting for John Fox but will have a tough time here.


Green Bay (4-4) at Tennessee (4-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Titans 24, Packers 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 711.

Line: Packers by 3. O/U: 50.

The Packers have the No. 1 run defense, and that will be put to the test by Tennessee’s third-ranked ground game. Aaron Rodgers is still Aaron Rodgers, but his team is banged up.


Minnesota (5-3) at Washington (4-3-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Redskins 24, Vikings 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 712.

Line: Redskins by 2 1/2. O/U: 41 1/2.

Minnesota’s offensive line is running on fumes, and that could be the difference. Sam Bradford isn’t the same quarterback under heavy pressure. Washington can score enough.


Miami (4-4) at San Diego (4-5)

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Chargers 31, Dolphins 27

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 713.

Line: Chargers by 4. O/U: 48 1/2.

San Diego has done a good job of stopping the run, and that’s especially important against Miami. Quarterback Philip Rivers is going to keep the Chargers in every game.


San Francisco (1-7) at Arizona (3-4-1)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Cardinals 34, 49ers 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 714.

Line: Cardinals by 13 1/2. O/U: 48 1/2.

The Cardinals are coming off a bye, and quarterback Carson Palmer has had a chance to get back on track. The 49ers have lost seven in a row and mostly have been a debacle.


Dallas (7-1) at Pittsburgh (4-4)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Cowboys 27, Steelers 24

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 715.

Line: Steelers by 2 1/2. O/U: 49 1/2.

With the way rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott are playing, it’s hard to bet against a Cowboys team that has won seven in a row. Steelers are tough but banged up.


Seattle (5-2-1) at New England (7-1)

Sunday, 5:30 p.m.

Patriots 31, Seahawks 24

TV: Channel 4.

Line: Patriots by 7 1/2. O/U: 48.

The Patriots have the edge in this Super Bowl XLIX rematch, and not just because they’re at home. Tom Brady is off to a torrid start, and the Seahawks can’t play ball-control with the run.


Cincinnati (3-4-1) at N.Y. Giants (5-3)

Monday, 5:30 p.m.

Giants 27, Bengals 21


Line: Bengals by 1. O/U: 47.

After a slow start, the Giants are rolling, and their defense — particularly their secondary — could be a problem for Andy Dalton and the Bengals. Go with the home team.