Babis is back: Right-wing populist’s return expected to steer Czech Republic away from Ukraine

PRAGUE — Four years ago, it seemed that the days in politics of billionaire Andrej Babis were numbered.

The movement Babis created to counter mainstream political parties — the Action of Dissatisfied Citizens, known by the Czech abbreviation ANO, which means yes in Czech — was defeated in October 2021 by a coalition of pro-Western groups. The populist leader was expected to make good on his promise to quit, rather than end up in opposition.

Instead, the former prime minister immediately launched an aggressive campaign blaming the ruling coalition for a host of problems, including the energy crisis and soaring inflation. He promised to revoke a much-resented increase in the state pension age and to end help for Ukraine, while ridiculing Prime Minister Petr Fiala as being a better prime minister of Ukraine than of the Czech Republic.

On Saturday, ANO claimed its greatest election victory since its foundation in 2011, and Babis is poised to again become prime minister.

“It’s for me the culmination of my political career,” said Babis, 71, who was a member of the Communist Party before the 1989 Velvet Revolution in the former Czechoslovakia and has drawn comparisons to President Trump for his wealth, authoritarian tendencies and ability to endure in the face of scandal.

Implications for Ukraine

Babis’ victory deprives Ukraine of a staunch supporter and steers the Czech Republic toward the pro-Russian path taken by Hungary and Slovakia.

He is expected to join the ranks of Viktor Orbán of Hungary and Robert Fico of Slovakia, whose countries have refused to provide military aid to Ukraine, continue to import Russian oil and oppose sanctions on Russia.

Babis said he was planning to abandon an internationally recognized Czech initiative that acquires artillery shells for Ukraine on markets outside the European Union. He also opposes a NATO commitment to significantly increase defense spending and criticized a deal to purchase 24 U.S. F-35 fighter jets.

In Europe, Babis already joined forces with his friend Orbán to create a new alliance in the European Parliament, dubbed the Patriots for Europe, to represent hard-right groups critical of EU migration and climate policies, and favoring national sovereignty.

Tomas Weiss, associate professor of international relations at Charles University in Prague, said he would expect Babis to apply a pragmatic approach to the EU due to his business interests. Babis might be a vocal EU critic at home but would not present big obstacles in Brussels, he said.

“Fico and Orbán might be celebrating, but they’re not the players who matter at the European level,” Weiss said.

Past scandals

Babis made his first impact on the Czech political scene in the 2013 election, finishing second and becoming finance minister.

Among his moves, he proposed lowering taxes on beer by more than half — a popular policy among beer-loving Czechs.

As the owner of the Agrofert conglomerate of some 200 agriculture, food, chemical and media companies, Babis faced allegations that Finance Ministry officials used their powers to force his business competitors into liquidation. Fearing a combination of wealth and power, Parliament approved a law that compelled Babis to transfer Agrofert to an independent trust fund. He was eventually fired as finance minister in 2017 over unexplained business dealings.

His popularity was unharmed, and he won the 2017 election, becoming prime minister and forming a minority government with the Social Democrats that governed with the support of the maverick Communists.

During his turbulent term in office, police recommended that he should be indicted over alleged fraud involving EU subsidies. A quarter of a million people took to the streets — the biggest such demonstrations since 1989 — twice in 2019 to demand that Babis step down due to his scandals, including the conflict of interest over EU subsidies.

He was hit by yet another scandal in 2021 that linked him and hundreds of other wealthy people to offshore accounts in findings known as the Pandora Papers. He lost the parliamentary election a short time afterward and two years later was defeated in a run for the largely ceremonial post of president by Petr Pavel, a retired army general.

Troubles ahead

Babis bounced back, but problems remain.

He still faces fraud charges in the EU subsidies case and the new Parliament will have to lift his official immunity for a court to issue a verdict.

He also has to meet the requirements of an amended conflict-of-interest law. The current stricter legislation does not allow the transfer of ownership to trust funds or relatives.

Without a majority in the lower house, Babis prefers to govern alone, but his minority Cabinet would need the tacit support of the Freedom and Direct Democracy anti-migrant party and the right-wing Motorists for Themselves to win a mandatory parliamentary confidence vote to rule.

Another option for the three is to rule together with a comfortable majority. Babis shares with the Motorists the rejection of EU climate and migration policies and other issues, but the Freedom party wants to lead the country out of the EU and NATO, a view not endorsed by Babis and the Motorists.

There are also questions over the stability of any support from the Freedom party, which ran on a joint ticket with three fringe extremists groups, with the possibility that disagreements over numerous issues might come to light soon.

“We’re entering an unknown future,” analyst Vladimíra Dvorakova from the Czech Technical University in Prague told Czech public television.

Janicek writes for the Associated Press.