Irvine business forum sees demographics and improved growth as economic keys

The effects on local and world economies of stagnant economic growth and a demographic shift from younger to older were among themes explored at the 2016 Irvine Business Outlook forum Friday morning.

Hundreds of business leaders, public officials and others gathered at the Irvine Marriott hotel for the event presented by the Irvine Chamber of Commerce and UC Irvine. Keynote speakers were Bill Maurer, dean of the UCI School of Social Sciences, and Fox Business Network anchor Stuart Varney.

Varney, 67, a newly minted U.S. citizen, blended humor and economic insight in his native British accent. He chose to become a citizen last year after more than 30 years of reporting on Wall Street and international markets.

“I pay a lot of taxes here,” Varney quipped. “I might as well get the right to vote.”

Varney said this will be the first year he would participate in an American election. While not overtly stating his political preference, Varney noted with a sly grin that he works for Fox News and was paid to speak to a group of Orange County business leaders.

The U.S. general election in November could be the most important in decades for the national and world economies, he suggested. With the country’s economic growth stagnant at around 2% or lower in recent years, recovery from the recession of 2007 to 2009 is not as strong as political leaders would have us think, he said. The U.S. economy needs to grow by 4% annually to boost markets here and abroad, he said.

Varney said longer life expectancy and falling fertility rates around the world are creating a delicate imbalance between an aging population and a shrinking workforce to support it. He noted that in the period of one generation, life expectancy in the United States has increased by about five years for both men and women.

Maurer, recognized as an expert on the anthropology of money, finance and law, agreed that the aging population is a concern, but he believes there’s a solution.

“Try to think about it in terms of potential business opportunities, because they’re clearly there,” Maurer told the audience. “We can do well by doing good with this population.”

Maurer’s presentation also included an outline of how the federal government continues to redesign U.S. currency to try to outpace counterfeiters. Beginning with the $10 bill — possibly with a female portrait replacing the traditional image of Alexander Hamilton by 2020 — all paper currency valued over $1 will have newer designs with built-in security features.

In the increasing movement toward electronic payments, security is an even higher priority, Maurer said.

“Consumer-protection issues loom large in a lot of the new services that we’re getting,” he said.

Many mobile apps have sophisticated security systems built in, he added, “so don’t worry too much. But at least know what you’re doing before you start playing around with it.”