Orange County, we have a problem

Dan Emory and Michael Gueleck

The problem: The letters in the Daily Pilot Forum section (March 25)

attest that the airport debate is not over. All sides have valid

points.

The drama of the airport, in three acts:

Act 1: Our community wanted some restrictions on flights in and

out of John Wayne Airport. We succeeded.

Act 2: We made an attempt to get an airport at El Toro. We failed.

Act 3: In the future, the powers that be will most likely decide

that the only solution is to enlarge JWA. We must be ready ahead of

time so as not to fail this time.

The facts of flight:

1. The most recent Southern California Association of Governments

(SCAG) study of future air traffic demand estimates that annual air

traffic demand will increase from 81 million air passengers in 1997

to 167 million air passengers 2022. The association, based on the

existing capacity of regional airports (including planned expansions

such as that at LAX), estimates that airport capacity will fall 28%

-- or 47 millions of air passengers -- short of demand. Add the

rapidly increasing demand for air freight, and it becomes apparent

the actual shortfall between capacity and demand will commence around

the year 2015, if not sooner.

2. Creating a new major commercial airport facility, major

expansion of an existing facility, or, in the case of El Toro,

conversion to a commercial airport, typically takes about 10 years

from the inception of planning to the beginning of construction. And

the construction phase itself can take up to 5 years. The year 2015

is just 11 years away. Thus, it is already a certainty that all the

regional airports will be at or above capacity before it is possible

to bring any additional capacity on-line.

3. Providing a true high-speed mass transit system to connect all

the existing airports to most regional population centers, even if

possible, does not solve the capacity shortfall problem. Furthermore,

such systems take even longer to construct than airports. The current

budgetary crunch in California makes the likelihood of any high-speed

mass transit problematic at best. Even if a project were begun, the

much greater political clout of Los Angeles County would make

connections of the system to Orange County a low priority, not likely

to occur in less than 25 years.

4. The regional freeway system is already at or above capacity.

Traveling by freeway from Orange County to a distant airport will

become increasingly onerous, particularly during peak hours when most

air travelers are driving to or from airports.

5. JWA’s limited air freight capability results in significant

added costs and delays for businesses that ship and, or, receive high

volumes of air freight. Businesses that cater to Orange County

visitors are increasingly concerned about the effect on their

businesses of inadequate air transportation.

6. Businesses and frequent fliers constitute a powerful

constituency, which will exert growing pressure on the Orange County

Supervisors to solve the county’s air transportation problem. As the

Supervisors confront this reality, they will see only one solution;

to expand JWA.

7. The size of JWA is less than 500 acres. Converting it into a

major hub airport would require a minimum of another 1,000 acres,

which would have to be obtained by condemnation of lands now occupied

by residences and commercial or industrial buildings.

The cost of condemnation would be enormous -- well over $3

billion. Add to that the permanently lost property taxes and other

revenue sources derived from those properties, would push the cost

well over $5 billion. Such a project would also require that the San

Diego Freeway be put underground so that more and longer runways

could be constructed.

Major traffic arteries such as Red Hill Road, MacArthur Boulevard

and Campus Drive would have to be closed permanently or re-routed,

disrupting traffic for at least three or four years during

construction. Nearly all general-aviation activities would have to be

terminated.

Impossible?

If you think all seven points above would make such a JWA project

impossible, you’re mistaken. It will happen when political pressure

and Orange County’s continued economic health demands it.

It’s is time for the diligent Airport Working Group to redefine

its goals -- refocus, rearm and reload for the last page of Act Three

ahead. This is no time for a silence of the lambs.

* DAN W. EMORY is a political consultant and MICHAEL A. GLUECK is

a physician. Both are from Newport Beach.