Android operating system is expected to surge past rivals

By the end of this year, Google’s Android smart phone operating system will have leapfrogged competing mobile systems such as Apple’s iPhone, Research in Motion’s BlackBerry and Microsoft Windows phones in global popularity, research firm Gartner Inc. said Friday.

By 2014, Android will be challenging Nokia to become the world’s most popular smart phone operating system, the firm said.

The explosive growth of Android will make it the world’s second-most-popular system by the end of 2010, Gartner said in its annual global smart-phone forecast. Android will account for 17.7% of worldwide sales, up from 3.9% at the end of 2009.

Google says more than 200,000 Android phones are being activated every day.

With phone manufacturers such as Samsung, Sony Ericsson, LG and Motorola planning to offer budget Android phones this fall, the Google system will have double the iPhone’s worldwide market share by 2014, Gartner said.

“It’s a matter of Android really going more into the hands of the mainstream user,” said Roberta Cozza, principal research analyst at Gartner. “The iPhone will remain focused toward the higher end of the market, while through the end of this year and into 2011, all that growth you see in Android will come from the fact that most of the vendors who are backing it will release cheaper smart phones.”

By the end of 2014, Gartner says, Android and Nokia’s Symbian operating system will each account for about 30% of the global smart-phone sales, while Apple’s iOS will be third with about 15% and RIM will be fourth with about 12%. The projections reflect Gartner’s expectation that Verizon, the largest U.S. wireless carrier, will begin to sell the iPhone in coming months, Cozza said.

Mike Swift writes for the San Jose Mercury News.