U.S. already in a recession, CFOs believe

A recession has already started and the downturn is likely to last longer than in the recent past, with the economy recovering only late next year, according to a quarterly survey of corporate chief financial officers released Wednesday.

Fifty-four percent of the CFOs said the United States was in recession, and another 24% said there was a high likelihood of one starting later this year, according to a Duke University/CFO magazine survey completed last week.

About three-quarters of the CFOs said they were more pessimistic this quarter than in the prior quarter about the economy, reflecting concerns about consumer spending, turmoil in credit and housing markets, and high energy prices.

An index of optimism, which rates the economy on a 1 to 100 scale, is at 52, the lowest level in the seven-year history of the index, the survey found.

“The last two recessions lasted only eight months,” said Duke professor Campbell Harvey, founding director of the survey. “In contrast, 90% of the CFOs do not believe the economy will turn the corner in 2008. Indeed, many of them believe it will be late 2009 before a recovery takes hold.”

In response, companies are scaling back plans for capital spending and are not planning significant hiring, in part because of high labor costs, according to the survey, which has been conducted for 12 years.

Most CFOs said interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve had little impact on their business, and more than a third said credit conditions have directly hurt their companies by making capital tougher to get and more expensive.

The survey included responses from 1,073 CFOs.

Another survey found that manufacturers expected the economy to slow significantly in 2008, but they thought a recession would be averted.

“Net exports will keep the U.S. economy out of recession in 2008,” the National Assn. of Manufacturers said Wednesday.

Exports are expected to grow by 7% this year, which is more than double the 3% rise in imports, the trade group said. As a result, trade will contribute to 47% of the growth in gross domestic product this year, the group said.

For the year overall, gross domestic product will grow by just 1.1% in 2008, the slowest pace since 2001.

Growth will essentially stall in the first half of the year followed by moderate 2.3% growth in the second half, the group said.

A third survey found that sales at U.S. retailers fell 1.1% in February compared with a month earlier, the biggest decline in at least five years, as shoppers worried about job cuts trimmed purchases, MasterCard Inc.’s consulting unit said.

Retail sales, excluding autos, totaled $298.2 billion last month on a seasonally adjusted basis, the MasterCard report said. The month-to-month decline is the largest since at least January 2003, when the division started tracking sales.

Sales increased 2.7% compared with February 2007.