Mark Lisanti
Defamer.com
Winners:
Months of painstaking research and the bribing of highly placed distribution executives have revealed that "Spider-Man 3," "Shrek the Third," "Pirates of the Carribbean: Dead Man's Chest," and "Harry Potter" (5? 6? 9? So hard to keep track) all have a fighting chance of making some money. Also, there are unconfirmed rumors that another "Die Hard" movie will be released quietly at some point this summer, and America is probably ready for Bruce Willis to play a part with slightly more edge than a computer-animated raccoon.
Something about "Transformers" doesn't feel quite right, and I'm generally a big believer in Michael Bay's unparalleled ability to blow things up from a breathtaking variety of camera angles.
Surprises:
So many sequels will make so much money earlier in this record-breaking summer that there will be none left for "Rush Hour 3" by the time it comes out in August, leaving the film with an opening weekend of just $58. And it would be nice if "Knocked Up" out grossed "Fantastic Four 2," which would probably be a better bet if the Human Torch accidentally impregnated Invisible Girl.
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