With a week to go, Republicans see elections as sewn up

One week before election day, House Republicans say they are “closing the deal,” on track to win a majority while Democrats struggle to keep pace with an expanding playing field.

A memo from the chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee also argues that Democrats’ closing message is not one of persuasion but one aimed at “laying the groundwork for a massive Election Night loss.”

“They are in need of a scapegoat,” Rep. Pete Sessions (R- Texas) writes.

The missive bases its claims on a range of tactical developments, such as polling, fund-raising and television-ad buys. It also points to the hardening conventional wisdom that now takes a Republican House majority for granted.

“As Republicans continue to push the borders of the playing field, the DCCC and its allies are forced to spend money in races they expected would be locked up weeks ago,” Sessions writes. “The DCCC has scrambled to follow the NRCC into many of these districts to play defense in an unsuccessful effort to stop the bleeding.”

Respected handicapper Charlie Cook wrote last week that Democratic losses akin to their 1994 drubbing were “inevitable.” The Rothenberg Political Report says 97 Democratic seats are in play, 36 of which are at least leaning toward Republican wins.

The weekly Gallup poll measuring voters’ generic preference in congressional races found minimal gains for Democrats. In a scenario that assumes typically low turnout for midterm races, Republicans have a 14-point advantage, down from 18 points a month earlier. In a higher-turnout scenario, the GOP advantage is nine points, down from 13 but still in a place that would indicate major gains.

“How much Democrats may be able to continue to close that [enthusiasm] gap, if at all, is the major story of the campaign’s final week, although at this point, the Republicans’ chances of taking over the House remain good,” Gallup’s Frank Newport says.

Democratic Congressional Committee chair Chris Van Hollen maintained last week that his party would hold its majority in the House. At a fund-raiser for the committee in Rhode Island on Monday night, however, President Obama acknowledged the challenge ahead.

“I’ve got to have you come out in droves and vote in this election,” he said. “If everybody who voted in 2008 votes in 2010, we are confident we will win this election.”

CNN reported Tuesday morning that Republicans were planning to mark election night in Washington with a “results watch,” carefully avoiding the word “party.” Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, chairman of the Republican Governors Assn., will join House Minority Leader John Boehner, who would likely be speaker in a Republican-controlled House, at the event.

mmemoli@tribune.com

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