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Campaign finance reports offer another indication of outsiders’ appeal

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Welcome to Trail Guide, your daily host through the wilds of the 2016 presidential campaign. It's Thursday, Oct. 15, and this is what we're watching:

Clinton heads into fall with $33 million to spend

Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro introduces Hillary Rodham Clinton at a "Latinos for Hillary" rally in San Antonio on Oct. 15.

Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro introduces Hillary Rodham Clinton at a “Latinos for Hillary” rally in San Antonio on Oct. 15.

(Erich Schlegel / Getty Images)

Hillary Rodham Clinton raised more than $28 million to use in the Democratic nomination fight during the crucial third-quarter fundraising period, but spent money almost as quickly as it came in.

The campaign ended the fundraising period, covering July 1 through Sept. 30, with just under $33 million in the bank -- a significant war chest that would be the envy of most rivals but one that could be drawn down quickly if her fundraising pace were to slow.

Clinton took in a total of $29.4 million during the summer months - though a small fraction that would only be eligible to be spent in the general election phase of the campaign. Since the start of her campaign she's raised more than $77 million, far ahead of any other candidate, Democrat or Republican.

But she spent more than $25 million in the period, bringing total disbursements to $43.5 million. The biggest expenditures in the most recent period were payroll (more than $8.6 million, including taxes), paid broadcast media buys ($3.4 million), online advertising ($2.7 million) and polling ($1.2 million).

The campaign reported raising more than $5 million in contributions of $200 or less, a percentage that is far short of the same total reported by the Bernie Sanders campaign .

Clinton campaign manager Robbie Mook said in a statement that the campaign was on track to hit its goal of $100 million during the primary, which "will set us up to reach more voters, organize them, and make Hillary Clinton the Democratic nominee."

I, for one, would be less than forthcoming if I said we predicted in June that a reality television star would be leading the Republican primary.
Danny Diaz, Jeb Bush's campaign manager, in a statement Thursday as his candidate announced third-quarter fundraising totals.

Bernie Sanders posts big fundraising number, and an important small one

Sen. Bernie Sanders' fundraising total of $26.2 million in the third quarter surpassed an earlier estimate by his campaign by more than $1 million, putting him even closer to Hillary Rodham Clinton's initial estimate of $27 million. Her campaign has still yet to announce its final totals.

One of the most significant stats is the fact that only 270 of the more than 650,000 donors to his campaign in the quarter donated the maximum amount allowed by federal law -- $2,700 for an individual. In fact, his campaign says that 77% of its donors gave less than $200. That means it can go back to those donors again and again through the primary and caucus season.

Sanders had $27.1 million in the bank at the start of the fourth quarter, and is already building on that number. His campaign says it has raised $3.2 million since Tuesday's debate alone.

Early tale of the tape: Fiorina fundraising surges, Jindal struggles

The first of many presidential campaign finance reports for the critical third-quarter fundraising period have now been filed with the Federal Election Commission. The early headlines: Ben Carson is raising a lot but spending it just as quickly; Carly Fiorina saw a significant spike after two well-reviewed debate performances, and Bobby Jindal is well off the pace.

Based on the documents filed so far, here's a tale of the tape:

Ben Carson

Raised: $20,767,266

Spent: $14,240,044

Cash on hand: $11,272,534

Rand Paul

Raised: $2,509,251

Spent: $4,546,611

Cash on hand: $2,124,155

Carly Fiorina

Raised: $6,791,308

Spent: $2,232,773

Cash on hand: $5,549,194

Bobby Jindal

Raised: $579,438

Spent: $832,214

Cash on hand: $260,949

Other campaigns have publicly released, or leaked, other information.

Jeb Bush raised more than $13 million and has $10 million in the bank.

Here are some others:

In latest fundraising filing, Bush reports raising $13 million

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush announces his plan to repeal and replace President Obama's healthcare law, Tuesday at Saint Anselm College in Manchester, N.H.

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush announces his plan to repeal and replace President Obama’s healthcare law, Tuesday at Saint Anselm College in Manchester, N.H.

(Jim Cole / Associated Press)

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush raised about $13 million from July through September, his campaign announced Thursday.

Bush, whose father and brother both served as president, is naturally aligned with deep-pocketed donors who can help bankroll his presidential campaign.

But the money has not led to support in the polls. In several national and early nominating state surveys, Bush is polling toward the middle of the pack, behind outsider candidates like businessman Donald Trump and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson.

Danny Diaz, Bush's campaign manager, said in a statement Thursday that the campaign was "confident" that when voters prepare to select a president, Bush will be their candidate.

"I -- for one -- would be less than forthcoming if I said we predicted in June that a reality television star would be leading the Republican primary," Diaz said in a statement, jabbing Trump.

Bush reported having about $10 million in the bank.

How a grass-roots army is fueling the Bernie Sanders surge

Lyn Pestana addresses Bernie Sanders supporters at a debate watch party at her home in Los Angeles.

Lyn Pestana addresses Bernie Sanders supporters at a debate watch party at her home in Los Angeles.

(Lawrence K. Ho / Los Angeles Times)

On this day, when campaigns detail how much money they have raised and just how they're spending it, Christina Bellantoni has a great look at the ways in which Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders' presidential bid is benefiting from a passionate volunteer army, hard at work in ways that won't cost the campaign a penny.

The campaign tries to coordinate at least some of that activity, but for many of the people organizing on Sanders' behalf -- including artists, musicians, filmmakers and high school students -- the effort has become a do-it-yourself exercise in activism.

And the phenomenon isn't confined to California liberals.

A Sanders aide said the campaign recently got a call about their office in Utah -- even though there is no office in Utah. A Sanders loyalist had established one.

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Comedy hour at the Naval Observatory

You can't say he isn't enjoying the attention.

Vice President Joe Biden hasn't announced a final decision about running for president, and wasn't about to when reporters asked him point-blank about it Thursday while he waited for the South Korean president to arrive for lunch as his official home.

Instead, he seemed to enjoy teasing the reporters about it, as the video above shows.

Here's the full transcript of the back-and-forth, as provided by the pool reporter, Julie Hirschfeld Davis of the New York Times.

Q. Mr. Vice President, are you running for president?

A. I'll answer in Korean.

Q. Have you made your decision yet?

A. I can't hear you.

Q. Have you made your decision yet?

Q. Is there still an opening in the race for you, sir?

A. I'm here to greet President Park, I'll talk to you all about that later.

Q. Do Democrats deserve your decision, Mr. Vice President?

Q. Later, when?

A. I'll tell you what, good to see you all.

Clinton-Castro? Hillary says she'll 'look hard' at HUD secretary for VP

The Times' Evan Halper is covering Hillary Rodham Clinton's campaign stop in San Antonio on Thursday, where she will later appear with the city's former mayor, Julian Castro, who now serves as President Obama's secretary of Housing and Urban Development.

It's no surprise that the event moderator, the president of the U.S. Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, asked the former secretary of State about a possible political union of the two.

Castro, who is expected to endorse Clinton officially Thursday, would become the second member of the Obama Cabinet to offer support for Clinton, joining Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack.

With eye on Biden, Clinton holds Obama tight

TOPSHOTS Presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton greets supporters during a rally in Las Vegas, Nevada on October 14, 2015. AFP PHOTO / FREDERIC J. BROWNFREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP/Getty Images ** OUTS - ELSENT, FPG, CM - OUTS * NM, PH, VA if sourced by CT, LA or MoD **

TOPSHOTS Presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton greets supporters during a rally in Las Vegas, Nevada on October 14, 2015. AFP PHOTO / FREDERIC J. BROWNFREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP/Getty Images ** OUTS - ELSENT, FPG, CM - OUTS * NM, PH, VA if sourced by CT, LA or MoD **

(FREDERIC J. BROWN / AFP/Getty Images)

Hillary Rodham Clinton often says that she's not running for a third term of the Obama presidency.

But that wasn't the message at Clinton's first big rally following her strong performance at Tuesday's debate. In a 30-minute speech to a large crowd of supporters outside Las Vegas, above, Clinton offered a gushing tribute to the president. With it, she closed the window a little bit tighter on Vice President Joe Biden.

If Biden were to enter the race for the nomination, among the strongest rationales for his campaign would be to continue pushing the Obama agenda. That's the reason some big donors say they want him to run.

Clinton is sending the message that there is no need; she will gladly do that job

"I don't think President Obama gets the credit he deserves," she said just minutes into her speech. "For saving our economy from what could have been an even worse crisis, saving the auto industry, cracking down on the Wall Street abuses which the Bush administration had been ignoring and passing the Affordable Care Act."

"You would think with a record like that, the Republicans might have changed their approach," she said.

Clinton also pointed out that one of the first things Obama did after winning election in 2008 was to call her to lobby her to serve in his administration.

Clinton's tighter embrace of Obama was also evident during the debate. Asked by moderator Anderson Cooper to name one thing that differentiated her from Obama, she avoided mentioning any of the policies on which they don't agree, such as how to handle the civil war in Syria or what to do with the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement. Instead, she delivered a quip about her gender before going on to discuss Obama policies she wants to build on.

Bernie Sanders adds to war chest at 'proletariat' home

Presidential candidate Bernie Sanders capped a day of campaigning around Los Angeles on Wednesday at a high-end home in Beverly Hills where he collected about $150,000, aides said.

It was an unlikely venue for the self-described Democratic socialist who has made economic injustice the central focus of his campaign: the home of luxury real estate brokers Syd and Linda Leibovitch of Rodeo Realty, Inc.

The rock band America, known for its 1970s hits "Ventura Highway" and "A Horse With No Name," played live by the pool, with guests seated on white wooden chairs. The event had valet parking.

In remarks to the crowd of about 300 donors, Sanders joked it was a "proletariat" home.

"The truth is there are many people in this country who have money but also believe in social justice," he said.

Read here for more on Sanders' California campaign swing.

A Trump change-up: Donald takes on Bernie

RICHMOND, VA - OCTOBER 14: Republican presidential candidate and front-runner Donald Trump addresses a crowd of more than seven thousand people during a campaign rally at the Richmond International Raceway October 14, 2015 in Richmond, Virginia. A New York real estate mogul and reality television star, Trump is now in a statistical tie with retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson in a Fox News survey of likely Republican voters released Tuesday. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images) *** BESTPIX *** ** OUTS - ELSENT, FPG, CM - OUTS * NM, PH, VA if sourced by CT, LA or MoD **

RICHMOND, VA - OCTOBER 14: Republican presidential candidate and front-runner Donald Trump addresses a crowd of more than seven thousand people during a campaign rally at the Richmond International Raceway October 14, 2015 in Richmond, Virginia. A New York real estate mogul and reality television star, Trump is now in a statistical tie with retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson in a Fox News survey of likely Republican voters released Tuesday. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images) *** BESTPIX *** ** OUTS - ELSENT, FPG, CM - OUTS * NM, PH, VA if sourced by CT, LA or MoD **

(Michael A. Memoli)

Donald Trump insists that he's only a counter-puncher, that he goes on the attack only when someone attacks him. We've seen him do it with gusto during the Republican primary so far, with Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio and former candidates Scott Walker and Rick Perry among his favorite targets.

But on Wednesday night, Trump launched a first strike against Bernie Sanders as he commented on Hillary Rodham Clinton's performance in the first Democratic primary debate.

"The poor woman, she's got to give everything away because this maniac that was standing on her right is giving everything away," he said at a campaign stop in Virginia. "This socialist-slash-communist — OK? Nobody wants to say it."

Trump's campaign also posted another video on Instagram, this one targeting Sanders. It opens with a narrator saying the world is a "dangerous place."

"We need a tough, strong leader," he says, before the video cuts to Sanders losing control of a campaign rally this year as Black Lives Matter activists took the stage. "And it's not this guy!"

As circus-style music plays, the text on screen reads: "Bernie can't even defend his microphone. How will he defend the country?"

In response, Sanders told NBC News that if Trump were the Republican nominee, "I very, very much look forward to running against him."

Bernie Sanders dancing? Bernie Sanders dancing

Yes, that is Bernie Sanders, the 74-year-old senator from Vermont, dancing ahead of his appearance on "Ellen," taped Wednesday during his campaign swing through southern California.

But it didn't stop there, as The Times' Michael Finnegan reports . Boxers or briefs, DeGeneres wanted to know. "Briefs," Sanders answered a few minutes before his rhythmically challenged rendition of John Travolta's "Stayin' Alive" dance steps.

From the Burbank television studio, Sanders dashed to the Avalon Hollywood, a nightclub packed with supporters who cheered point after point of his campaign agenda for more than 45 minutes.

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It's FEC Day. Here's what to look for

Republican presidential hopeful and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush visited the Iowa State Fair on Friday.
(Justin Sullivan / Getty Images)

You've seen all the polls. We've now seen both parties' candidates debate. Today, we learn where the candidates stand in the money chase.

By midnight tonight, the White House hopefuls have to provide their final detailed campaign finance reports with the Federal Election Commission, giving the public fresh insight into how much hard money they've raised, and how -- and how quickly -- it's been spent in the third quarter, covering July, August and September.

The topline numbers -- total raised, total spent, and cash remaining in the bank -- will offer a snapshot of how the candidates stand much the way public polling in key states does. But some of the details buried in the pages of the electronically-filed documents will give valuable insight as to how the leading candidates are building their operations as the first nominating contests approach, and just how viable some of the trailing campaigns are.

Here are some of the nuggets we'll be looking for.

1. Hillary Rodham Clinton's small donors. We already have some sense of the Democratic front-runner's numbers. Her campaign announced at the end of September, when the fundraising period officially closed, that she would surpass $28 million in the three-month period , the most a non-incumbent raised in the third quarter.

That was more than the $25 million Bernie Sanders' campaign said he would take in.

But Sanders, as he noted in the debate Tuesday night, has shown strong grass-roots support, with the average donation to his campaign of about $30. As we noted earlier this year, Clinton's campaign was hoping to show similar breadth of support, placing as one of the campaign's highest priorities building its email list .

Doing so would help generate those $5-, $10-, $25-at a time offers that would were critical for President Obama's two campaigns. Clinton's report will show how much she's raised from how many donors. Her spending details will also help reveal just how much of a priority that list-building was.

2. Jeb Bush's cash flow. Republicans are eagerly awaiting the former Florida governor's numbers, looking for signs that his strong early showing on the fundraising front may have quickly faded. Bush raised more than $11 million in the second quarter, in just 16 days as a candidate. His super-PAC brought in another $103 million.

But then along came Donald Trump, and the man once expected to set the pace in the Republican primary field found himself looking up in the polls and struggling to shake that "low energy" label. Bush has continued an aggressive fundraising pace, as have others in the Bush family. But just how rattled were the GOP establishment over the race? Politico reported in August that three of Bush's top fundraisers abruptly departed his campaign amid questions over his long-term staying power.

3. Donald Trump's spending. The real estate mogul and former reality show star isn't worried about posting a big number. "I am self-funding my campaign," he said at the No Labels Problem Solver Convention in New Hampshire on Monday. "I'm not taking money from hedge funds or anybody else. They want to give me millions, I don't want it. Because if I take it, I have got to be like Jeb Bush, I have got to be like Rubio, I got to be like all these guys, and I got to do what they tell me to do. Because believe me, they are puppets."

But just what does Trump's operation look like? There was some speculation earlier this year that he might not be making the kinds of nuts-and-bolts investments a campaign needs to make to be successful over the long term. But Trump's campaign is anything but orthodox. Trump has said he's developing his first television advertising campaign, but does he really need to pay for them to air just yet? Look at how often he benefits from free media exposure, with regular phone calls to cable news shows and sometimes live, uninterrupted coverage of his events. Transportation costs? Well, Trump is writing himself checks -- from his campaign to his business -- for use of the famous Trump plane.

How else is he spending his millions? We'll find out tonight.

4. Martin O'Malley's number. The former Maryland governor and Baltimore mayor has struggled to make a dent in the polls amid Clinton's early dominance, Sanders' surge and ongoing speculation about whether Vice President Joe Biden might run. So he'd called for more debates than the six officially sanctioned by the Democratic National Committee, saying voters deserved to have more opportunities to hear from all the candidates. And so Tuesday was a critical moment in the campaign for him: if he flubbed it, he might struggle to justify getting back on stage again.

But by most accounts O'Malley had a strong, maybe even breakout performance. Good enough, perhaps, to explain away what might be a disappointing third quarter fundraising number. The campaign has not given any clues about what it might be, but done little to push back about speculation it would be on the low side. He raised $2 million in his first fundraising quarter.

5. Cruz in control? Somewhat under the radar, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz has been building a pretty impressive war chest. His campaign announced last week that it had raised $12.2 million in the third quarter from more than 185,000 donors. In fact, his might be the only campaign that announced early data from the fourth quarter, just barely underway. In the first nine days of October he raised another $1 million. That's half of what another highly-touted contender from the Senate, Kentucky's Rand Paul, had left in the bank at the end of September.

That merits a closer look at how Cruz is building his campaign, particularly in light of what his campaign calls a "Sustainer" program. His campaign says it has more than 6,000 "sustainers," who give a monthly donation that covers the cost of his entire national field program every month. Just how much does that entail? Who are they? The reports will give us some insight into that.

What are the concerns driving the most powerful union in Nevada?

When Edgar Montano first moved here two years ago, his work at a carwash offered sporadic hours, dismal pay and no security.

Today, tending to guestrooms at the Luxor, the vast pyramid-shaped hotel on the southern tip of the Las Vegas Strip, his job folding linens and restocking toiletries provides the 21-year-old enough money -- about $17 an hour -- to not only pay rent to his stepmother, but send something back to relatives in Michoacán.

Montano, who was born in Los Angeles to parents in the country illegally, credits his good fortune to Culinary Union Local 226, Nevada's most powerful union. And as he thinks ahead to voting for the first time in a presidential election, he expects to follow the lead of the union that has negotiated job security, healthcare benefits and a paycheck far above the state's minimum wage.

So it's no wonder that as Democratic presidential hopefuls arrived in Las Vegas this week for their first debate, they also had their eyes on the Culinary.

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