Absent Allawi May Be Biding His Time

When Iraq’s new government finally emerged last week and the nation’s political heavyweights stood before the National Assembly, shaking hands and accepting congratulations, one man was noticeably absent from the stage: Iyad Allawi, who had served as prime minister since last summer.

So far, Allawi has no role in the new administration. Though his slate won 40 seats in the election for the assembly, he has skipped most of the body’s meetings and left the country during much of the negotiations to form a government. “Where’s Allawi?” has become a common refrain among politicians, journalists and citizens who cast ballots in the Jan. 30 vote.

“If Allawi doesn’t want to take part, it’s his business,” said Jawad Maliky, a key negotiator with the Shiite Muslim-dominated United Iraqi Alliance, which controls slightly more than half the seats in the 275-member assembly.

Before the election, Allawi campaigned throughout Iraq, had posters of himself displayed everywhere and regularly appeared on TV. Nowadays, the onetime CIA-backed opposition fighter avoids the media and rarely gives interviews.

Last week he issued a brief statement announcing his resignation and congratulating the new president and vice presidents, but made no mention of his replacement, Ibrahim Jafari, a member of the United Iraqi Alliance and leader of the Islamic Dawa Party.

Allawi’s critics say he is bitter that he wasn’t offered the prime minister’s job in the new government. They say his refusal to accept a lesser role has left his slate -- which came in third in the election -- out in the cold, with no key leadership post.

Negotiations are underway to award some Cabinet positions to members of Allawi’s camp, but the presidency, the two vice presidential posts and the top assembly jobs are taken.

“At one point, we could have talked about giving him one of the other positions, but he wasn’t around. Now it’s too late,” said Fuad Masoum, a leading Kurdish negotiator and assembly member.

The Kurds, who control 27% of the assembly seats, had been eager to include Allawi, a Shiite, because he shared their commitment to a secular government. The United Iraqi Alliance, which has formed a coalition with the Kurds, supports a stronger role for religion.

U.S. officials hoped Allawi, a longtime ally of Washington, would emerge as an influential player and counter pressure from Islamists in the new government.

Allawi could not be reached for comment.

His supporters say he is busy working on the hand-over and weighing his next political move, which could be transforming his Iraqi National Accord into an opposition party and preparing to run in the next election, which is expected by year’s end. They scoff at speculation he is upset and accuse the United Iraqi Alliance of plotting to sideline him.

“Their strategy from the start has been to try to marginalize the [Allawi] slate,” said Hani Idrees, editor of Baghdad, an INA-funded newspaper, and Allawi’s friend since college. “But now they are very eager for us to participate because they fear Allawi might play a powerful role in the opposition.”

Tension between the United Iraqi Alliance and Allawi grew last week when several assembly members publicly called for investigations into allegations of corruption and misconduct by the interim government. The lawmakers were particularly upset by claims that government ministries had hired thousands of former Baath Party members.

“We will form a committee to investigate all of the ministries of the Iyad Allawi government -- every one of them,” said Sheik Jalaluddin Saghir, a Shiite cleric and assembly member.

Allawi has not responded to the allegations, but his supporters dismiss them as a political smear tactic. “This fuss is a deliberate attempt to harm Allawi’s reputation,” Idrees said. He added that Allawi did not appoint the previous government, which was put together by the U.S. and United Nations.

The friction appears to have abated in recent days. With negotiations underway, both sides voiced optimism that an accord could be reached.

“Allawi is a leading Iraqi politician,” said Assembly Speaker Hachim Hassani, who served as industry minister under Allawi. “He will play a significant role in the coming phase.”

Allawi’s slate is demanding at least four of the 31 ministries, including one of the top ones, such as defense, finance, interior or foreign. “The ball is in their court,” said Hussein Ali Shaalan, a top member of Allawi’s bloc.

Shortly after the election, Allawi and his supporters made a vigorous push for him to win the nomination for prime minister, but United Iraqi Alliance officials rejected the idea.

“Talks collapsed early on because he only wanted to talk about being prime minister and we already had a prime minister,” said Saad Jawad, political chief for the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, a top party in the alliance. “After that, there was no clear signal from his people about whether he would accept a ministry position.”

Allawi supporters say they were promised one of the vice presidential slots, but it went to former interim President Ghazi Ajil Yawer, a Sunni Muslim. Shiites and Kurds wanted to give the post to a Sunni to soothe ethnic divisions. Most Sunnis boycotted the January election.

Idrees, the editor, said Allawi had decided not to accept a government post because he believed that “he would be better served by dedicating his time to rebuilding the Iraqi National Accord, reorganizing supporters and building a broad base to run in the coming election.”

Allawi’s one-foot-in, one-foot-out strategy may pay off, particularly if the incoming government stumbles, experts say.

“The new government has a very heavy schedule and they may not be able to accomplish very much,” said Hassan Bazzaz, a professor at Baghdad University. “Allawi thought he’d be conducting the orchestra. He’s not that comfortable in any other role. So he should just stay away. He will have his chance in the next election.”

But his strategy also has left his slate somewhat in disarray, particularly since he was its key draw. Unlike the Kurdish or Shiite blocs, Allawi’s is a mixture of parties and individuals who have few things in common other than a commitment to a secular government.

Without Allawi at the helm, the slate has started to splinter, with some members advocating strong participation in the government and others urging a boycott. The fracture was apparent when the Iraqi National Alliance newspaper ran a front-page story Sunday saying the bloc would boycott the government, and then a front-page piece Monday saying it would join.

But prominent members deny that the slate is breaking apart. “There are no conflicts,” Shaalan said. Nearly all of the bloc’s 40 members have attended the recent assembly meetings, he said, though Allawi was a no-show again Monday.

Shiite negotiators are urging members of Allawi’s slate to contact them individually, rather than working through the bloc.

“We do not want to interfere in internal affairs of [Allawi’s] list, and if they want to negotiate as a list, we are ready,” Maliky said. “But if some want to talk to us as individuals, we will talk to them. Time is running out.”

Special correspondent Shamil Aziz contributed to this report.