Electors Gather to Pick a Pope

The subtle campaign to succeed Pope John Paul II, a condensed season of hushed conversations and private reflection, gives way in earnest today to the effort to elect a new leader for the Roman Catholic Church.

Solemnly, 115 red-cloaked cardinals will say Mass and then gather in the Sistine Chapel for a ritualistic, secret meeting known as a conclave. Within a few hours, they will begin dropping ballots into silver, bronze and gold-plated urns.

It takes 77 votes to get elected.

“I’m just trying to put myself in God’s hands and ask the Lord to help me choose the one” he selected, Cardinal Roger M. Mahony of Los Angeles said in an interview Sunday. “I look around that hall each day this week, and I say, ‘The new pope is sitting here! He’s sitting here!’ ”

Gone are the days when emperors, kings and rich families ordered up a pope and threatened cardinals with starvation, prison or worse to influence their choice. Still, the election follows rules that trace to medieval times, last updated by John Paul in 1996.

In public comments before imposing a gag order on themselves April 9, and in less formal conversations since, several cardinals have signaled which way they were leaning.

And then there are other hints that have burst into public view. One cardinal writes a full-page editorial in a Catholic newspaper; another publishes a conveniently timed book. Supporters of still another show up in St. Peter’s Square with a huge banner promoting him.

However, several cardinals said they had not yet made their choice.

“It would sure be nice if the hand of God just came down from the ceiling and said, ‘This one.’ It would make life a lot easier!” Mahony said. “But that’s not happening yet.”

The electors’ final decision will probably be based partly on the philosophical priorities and religious convictions of each participant, and partly on the persuasive powers of a few “kingmakers.” Much is at stake, and the election could be quite contentious.

The Catholic Church is hugely divided, and many of its 1 billion members are seriously disaffected. There are not enough priests to tend to the faithful; former adherents are turning to other religions in many parts of the world; the church’s teachings are falling on deaf ears. Catholics everywhere are watching to see in what direction the new pontiff will take them.

Going into the conclave, the papal candidate with most support appears to be the hard-line doctrinal watchdog Joseph Ratzinger, a Bavarian-born cardinal who turned 78 on Saturday. He and his supporters advocate a “church that is not timid,” and their agenda has attracted the ultra-conservative order Opus Dei, which has two cardinals inside the conclave.

The Ratzinger agenda advocates a church that influences public policy, and it sees Western secularism as the greatest threat to Christianity. Ratzinger is a divisive figure, and many cardinals are uncomfortable with his orthodoxy.

“No one in the College of Cardinals has presented a complete alternative project alongside the neoconservatives’ program,” veteran Vatican observer Sandro Magister said. “But there is no lack of serious objections and resistance, and at the beginning of the conclave this will be turned into votes in favor of other candidates.”

In one scenario that is gaining currency among Vatican watchers, the initial balloting this afternoon would be used to gauge the strength of the two rival camps: Ratzinger and the more moderate cardinals who oppose him.

By some estimates, Ratzinger may have 40 to 50 cardinals on his side. He has international prestige and is considered a theological and intellectual heavyweight. Especially for cardinals with little experience in Vatican politics, Ratzinger is an imposing figure who is easy to follow.

Cardinals who oppose Ratzinger, however, do not seem to be able to agree on a candidate. Some Vaticanisti (the journalists dedicated to full-time coverage of papal politics) suggest that liberal Jesuit Cardinal Carlo Maria Martini would serve as a symbolic candidate.

Martini, much admired in progressive circles, is also 78 but is sick with a form of palsy. No longer considered pope material, he retired in 2002 as the archbishop of Milan and withdrew to the relative obscurity of Jerusalem.

Under this scenario, Ratzinger, with his negatives, would not be able to rise to the two-thirds majority required to win the election; nor would Martini. The deadlock would throw the race open -- but only after the relative strength of the two camps had been measured.

Ratzinger and his supporters advocate a strong curia, the Vatican’s central governing bureaucracy. John Paul concentrated authority in the curia and appointed bishops who toed the line.

Other cardinals, however, want a more democratic church, with increased decision-making powers devolved to the dioceses. In theory, a local bishop with less oversight from the Vatican could liberalize the celebration of Mass in his district, something that appeals to many U.S. Catholics.

“It is important that we have a strong pope, together with a strong episcopacy,” Cardinal Godfried Danneels of Belgium said in a news conference a few days after John Paul died. “It is a question of balance.”

Moderates are also more receptive to keeping open lines of communication with other faiths. Ratzinger and other conservatives say it is more important to maintain Catholicism as a superior religion.

Although John Paul took pride in the overtures he made to Jews, Muslims and Protestants, Ratzinger asserted Catholic primacy in the 2000 document “Dominus Iesus” (Lord Jesus) and branded other Christian denominations as deficient.

Last year, Ratzinger said Turkey should not be allowed to join the European Union because, as a predominantly Muslim country, it was “in permanent conflict” with Europe.

The debate has washed over the church, with many struggling over whether fundamental differences between the two religions -- whose believers are at war in parts of the world -- can be bridged for the sake of dialogue and on the basis of shared moral values.

“We have to learn to dialogue with Islam,” Cardinal Theodore McCarrick, the archbishop of Washington, D.C., said before John Paul’s funeral. “The Catholic Church cannot be full and complete unless it is able to speak to those who are not Catholic.”

And in the seventh of nine funeral Masses for the pope, presiding Cardinal Nasrallah Pierre Sfeir of Lebanon on Thursday made an impassioned plea for ecumenism.

“The pope firmly believed that every human being should be accepted as a brother -- his care was for the whole church, the Eastern and the Western church,” said Sfeir, who at 84 is too old to vote in the conclave but remains an important figure in the Eastern Rite churches loyal to Rome.

Ratzinger and others believe that Catholicism is under siege from what they call “Christianophobia,” a hatred of Christians that can only be fought by asserting Christian identity. And they see the problem as just as dire in Western Europe, with a fast-growing and religiously assertive Muslim minority.

Ratzinger’s latest book, published last week, focuses on what he sees as threats to Christian identity in Europe.

For other cardinals, however, other issues are paramount. Especially from the developing world, a number of cardinals emphasize social justice, human rights, the war on poverty and the ravages of globalization.

The next pope “needs to be a person who shows that he and the church are at the service of humanity, especially at the service of the poorest and most excluded,” Brazilian Cardinal Claudio Hummes, the archbishop of Sao Paolo, said upon arriving in Rome for the pope’s funeral.

Because John Paul’s teachings were complex and often contradictory, blocs of cardinals can claim to carry forth his ideals even as they promote opposing agendas.

At Ratzinger’s side is Italian Cardinal Camillo Ruini, 74, the late pope’s deputy as bishop of Rome and head of the Italian Bishops Conference. It was he who most clearly articulated the conservative faction’s agenda, during one of the first funeral Masses for John Paul.

“This is the church that [John Paul] wanted and today continues to ask us to live,” he said. “A church that doesn’t bend over backwards, that isn’t timid and doubted, a church that burns with the love of Christ, for the salvation of man.”

Others who could step up for conservatives if Ratzinger falls away after the first round of voting include Venice Patriarch Angelo Scola, 63; Austrian Cardinal Christoph Schoenborn, 60; or Jesuit Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio of Argentina, 68.

Italian Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re, 71, head of the powerful Congregation of Bishops, seems to be playing to both sides. He wrote a full-page editorial in Avvenire, the official paper of the Italian Bishops Conference, to extol John Paul’s devotion to prayer -- and reaffirm his own closeness to the late pontiff.

From the opposite camp, meanwhile, Martini’s followers would take their cue from him. A likely candidate would be Italian Cardinal Dionigi Tettamanzi, the archbishop of Milan, who is frequently mentioned as a potential pope.

Tettamanzi, 71, like the also-popular Brazilian Hummes, 70, has the same combination of conservative theology and social activism that characterized John Paul’s outlook.

The Belgian Danneels, 71, whose fans unfurled a banner in St. Peter’s Square proclaiming “Godfried for Pope,” is considered a dark-horse moderate candidate.

And other “outsiders” who might emerge as the putative front-runners and cancel each other out include Jose da Cruz Policarpo, 69, of Portugal; Honduran Cardinal Oscar Andres Rodriguez Maradiaga, 62, and Ivan Dias, 69, of India.

When he amended the conclave rules in 1996, John Paul allowed for election of the pope by a simple majority if several rounds of voting failed. A polarizing candidate with a sizable following could hold out for that final round and win, but the conclave would drag on for about two weeks, creating an impression of rancor and division -- something the Vatican does not want.

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Time to choose

The College of Cardinals is to meet today to begin selecting a new pope. After a security check of the Sistine Chapel to ensure that the deliberations remain secret, and the cardinals take an oath not to reveal anything of the proceedings, they will begin their work. The conclave could last several days, or extend almost two weeks.

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Deciding factors

The cardinals will weigh various traits of papal candidates and issues, including:

Leadership style

Linguistic ability

Radical or moderate leanings

Whether to return the papacy to an Italian

Ecumenism and how to increase dialogue with other religions, especially Islam

The shift from Catholicism to evangelical Protestant faiths, especially in Latin America

Effect of globalization, especially in developing countries

Autonomy for local dioceses

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The electorate

Almost all of the 115 cardinals expected to vote in this conclave were appointed by Pope John Paul II. About half are from Europe.

Cardinals, by region of origin:

Europe: 58

Latin America: 20

North America: 14 (U.S. 11)

Africa: 11

Asia: 10

Oceania: 2

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The conclave

Here’s how the process of choosing a new pope will unfold:

I The voting

The rectangular ballot bears the words ‘Eligo in Summum Pontificem’ (I elect as supreme pontiff) with space at the bottom for the elector’s choice. Disguising his handwriting, each cardinal notes his choice and folds the ballot twice. Three ‘scrutineers’ chosen earlier by lot take places at a table in front of the altar to count the ballots after all are cast to ensure they correspond to the number of electors.

Voting: Only one name is permitted per ballot. Ballots are folded twice before being submitted.

1. One at a time, in order of seniority, each cardinal approaches the altar holding out his ballot.

2. He kneels, offers a short prayer, rises and says aloud in Latin, ‘I call as my witness Christ the Lord, who will be my judge, that my vote is given to the one who before God I think should be elected.’

3. He places his ballot on a gold plate called a paten, slides the ballot into a large gold-plated urn and returns to his seat.

4. Collected ballots are removed and counted. If the total does not correspond to the number of electors, they are burned and a new vote is taken. If numbers match, ballots are opened.

5. The first scrutineer opens a ballot and notes the name; the second repeats the process. The third reads the name aloud for all to hear and writes the name.

6. The scrutineers total the votes. If one man has received two-thirds of the vote, a valid election has taken place. If the number of electors is not divisible by three, two-thirds plus one constitutes an election.

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II Election results

If no cardinal receives enough votes after three days, a day of prayer and discussion takes place. After approximately 30 ballots or 12 days, the cardinals may decide to choose by a simple majority or limit the field to the two top cardinals from the previous vote. Ballots are burned in a stove to signal results. Black smoke indicates voting is inconclusive; white shows there is a new pope. For the first time, the bells of St. Peter’s Basilica will ring as a complement to the traditional white smoke.

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III Accepting the vote

After his election, the new pope enters the ‘Room of Tears’ to don the papal vestments. The room is so named because some of the newly elected, realizing the immense responsibility of the office, have broken down.

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IV First words

From the central window of St. Peter’s Basilica, the senior cardinal deacon announces to Rome and the world, ‘Habemus papam’ - we have a pope - and announces his name. The new pontiff then appears to deliver his first greeting, a simple blessing, and perhaps a few additional comments. If so, they are closely followed for clues as to the direction of the church.

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Papal elections through the ages

In its present form, the papal conclave dates to the 13th century. Before that time, cardinals, clerics and laymen voted in papal elections and were often influenced by kings, emperors and even sitting popes. The word conclave is derived from the Latin ‘cum’ (with) and ‘clavis’ (key), implying that the cardinals are locked in a room until a pope is chosen. Not all scholars agree on the exact history of papal elections.

1073: St. Gregory VII is the last pope to ask for imperial confirmation from the Holy Roman emperor. He recommends his successor, Pope Victor III.

1179: Pope Alexander III rules that the papal elections must be decided by a two-thirds majority of electors.

1271: After a three-year deadlock, a group of six cardinals is commissioned to choose a candidate. They select Pope Gregory X.

1274: Pope Gregory X decrees that papal elections must take place in a conclave, requiring cardinals to assemble in a locked room until they arrive at a decision.

1276: Conclave law suspended.

1294: Pope Celestine V restores the conclave.

1298: Pope Boniface VIII incorporates conclave into canon law, with all subsequent papal elections taking place in conclaves.

1314: Pope Clement V decrees that the conclave must take place where the pope dies.

1378: Pope Urban VI is last non-cardinal elected pope.

1562: Pope Pius IV codifies the loosely observed conclave laws. He allows elections outside of the conclave, but none occur. That stipulation is revoked by Gregory XIII.

1621: Pope Gregory XV further codifies all details of the conclave and institutes secret ballot.

1996: Pope John Paul II allows election by a simple majority after 12 days of failed votes.

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Sources: Apostolic Constitution, Universi Dominici Gregis; ‘The Papal Conclave: How Do Cardinals Divine the Will of God?’; ‘Conclave’ by John Allen; Catholic Encyclopedia; Associated Press; Reuters; Gallery of the Roman Pontiffs; Catholic News Service; United States Conference of Catholic Bishops; New Advent Catholic Encyclopedia, OSV Catholic Almanac; Vatican; Wikipedia; Times reporting. Graphic reporting by Tom Reinken, Julie Sheer, Brady MacDonald