North Korea Moves to Take Missile Through a Test Run

North Korea appeared poised to test-launch today what intelligence experts contend is a new multi-stage ballistic missile that probably could not reach North America but could threaten U.S. interests in Asia.

Satellite surveillance showed North Korea moving what appeared to be fuel canisters to the launch site on its remote east coast late last week in preparation.

The Japanese daily Sankei Shimbun reported that North Koreans had been instructed to raise the national flag and watch television in anticipation of a “message to the people.”

From the length and diameter, the missile appears to be larger and more sophisticated than the one North Korea test-fired in 1998. With a range estimated at about 2,400 miles, it would be capable of reaching Guam, but not the U.S. mainland.

Experts said the missile would probably carry a satellite, rather than a warhead, which would enable North Korea to say it was a civilian endeavor and not a military move.

Weapons analysts are calling the new missile either the Taepodong X or the Taepodong 2.

It probably could not carry a nuclear payload, experts said, although it could be fitted with a chemical or biological warhead.

Over the weekend, the United States, Japan and South Korea called for North Korea to cancel the test and instead return to six-nation talks aimed at dismantling its nuclear program.

“The North Koreans think it is good timing. They want to make trouble and shake up the status quo,” a South Korean official said Saturday.

The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that the North Koreans might have been motivated by the negotiations underway over Iran’s nuclear program to seek to turn the spotlight on themselves.

Another South Korean official said that the communist regime in Pyongyang intended to do the test before the start of the rainy season at the end of the month.

The Taepodong 1 missile launched in 1998 flew over Japan. The following year, North Korean leader Kim Jong Il signed a testing moratorium, which he renewed during a summit in 2002 with Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi.

Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Aso warned today that a miscalculation could result in the missile landing on Japanese territory.

“If it is dropped on Japan, it will complicate the story. It will be regarded as an attack,” he said on Japanese television.

Japanese officials said they had no knowledge of developments within the Kim regime that would account for the possible test. But Tokyo said it had improved its electronic surveillance over the Korean peninsula in recent years. It has two spy satellites in orbit and its maritime defense force has four destroyers fitted with the U.S.-made AEGIS detection systems, at least one of which is permanently based in the Sea of Japan.

“Our intelligence collection has improved over the last several years and nothing will come out of the blue like it did in 1998,” said Tomohiko Taniguchi, a spokesman for the Foreign Ministry.

Both U.S. and Japanese officials said Tokyo would be eager to prove that it was able to swiftly detect and track any missile launched by North Korea. Japan has no capability of shooting down a missile, though it has signed on to participate in the Pentagon’s antimissile defense program. The U.S. cruiser Shiloh, armed with Standard Missile 3 interceptors designed to shoot down intermediate-range missiles, is expected to be stationed in Japanese waters beginning in August.

But Tokyo has little economic leverage over North Korea, leaving Aso with not much of a threat other than asking for a United Nations Security Council debate if Pyongyang does fire a missile.

Most of Japan’s actions appeared to be aimed at voters at home, where there is simmering anger over the kidnappings of Japanese citizens in the 1970s and ‘80s by North Korean security services. On Friday, the Japanese government passed a law requiring economic sanctions against Pyongyang if no progress is made on resolving questions about the fate of citizens still believed to be missing.

The U.S. ambassador to Japan, J. Thomas Schieffer, said: “There is no good that can come from launching a North Korean missile. It will only isolate the North Koreans further from the rest of the international community.”

Still, experts say there are compelling reasons that the North Korean regime would like to launch a missile.

The North Koreans have been testing engines for a new missile since at least 2002. A successful test would bolster Kim’s assertions domestically that he is developing advanced technology for his people.

Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., a leading U.S. expert on North Korea’s military, said the technologies for putting a satellite in orbit and firing a multi-stage missile were so similar that it might be difficult to immediately determine North Korea’s real intention.

“For a ballistic missile, you have to get into space to get the range.... The technology for guidance, for multi-staging, is the same,” he said.

A satellite launch in itself would be a significant advance in North Koreans’ military capabilities, he said, and “would give them great prestige.”

In 1998, North Korea said its missile test was actually a satellite launch, causing much confusion.

Now, Western intelligence officials believe there was a small satellite on the third stage of the multi-stage missile, but that it failed to launch.

Despite the country’s impoverishment, North Korean scientists have been working steadily since 1998 to improve their missile capabilities.

For weeks now, satellite imagery has detected preparation for a missile test at Musudan-ri, a remote military site in North Hamgyong province on the east coast.

Times staff writer Bruce Wallace in Tokyo contributed to this report.