Iraq’s latest last chance

THE U.S. HOPED THAT the process of writing an Iraqi constitution would weaken the insurgency that has killed nearly 2,000 U.S. troops and tens of thousands of Iraqis. But the suicide bombings and sniper attacks have not ended. And tensions among Kurds, Sunni Arabs and Shiite Arabs have only gotten worse as Saturday’s constitutional referendum approaches.

Sunni clerics and politicians urged their followers to boycott the January election for an interim national assembly -- a massive mistake. Now they are divided on whether to support the constitution. The U.S., and especially Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad, twisted enough arms this week to get a major Sunni political organization to urge acceptance.

Not only was that pressure necessary, more will be required whether or not the constitution is finally adopted.

The boycott deprived Sunnis of seats in the legislature and on the committee that drew up the constitution. Although Washington’s pressure did gain some representation for Sunnis, the constitution -- adopted after several delays -- confirmed their fears of a country in which Shiites and Kurds get most of the power. Those concerns remain despite amendments made to the draft this week. The most important requires the new national assembly, to be elected Dec. 15, to establish a committee that would have four months to recommend changes to the constitution. That could let the Sunnis back into the process.

Kurds account for about 20% of Iraq’s population, and Sunni Arabs another 20%. But each ethnic group is dominant in three of the country’s 18 provinces, and if two-thirds of the voters in any three provinces reject the draft, it does not take effect. That would mean new elections for a new national assembly and the drafting of a new constitution.

There’s no guarantee Shiites (who make up 60% of the population) and Kurds would pay more attention to Sunni concerns in a new constitution. Nor would the two communities have to listen to Sunnis if the draft is adopted and the new committee starts considering changes.

That’s where the U.S. comes in. Washington should keep repeating to the Kurds and the Shiites that Iraq’s best chance for stability is as a unified nation. The Sunnis are the backbone of the insurgency that has wracked the country, though most of the worst damage appears to be the work of foreign fighters who follow Abu Musab Zarqawi and his Al Qaeda allies.

Sunni Iraqis who believe they have some political power are less likely to support neighbors who kill Shiites and invite revenge attacks or crackdowns by U.S. troops. Gaining more seats in the next legislature and a stronger voice in amending the constitution are paths to greater political clout.

The training of Iraqi forces to replace U.S. troops has gone much slower than expected. The political process of elections and constitution writing has also been anything but speedy. Iraqi leaders echo Washington in saying the solution to Iraq’s violence will be political, not military.

A peaceful Iraq requires a constitution that represents all sectors and protects the rights of minorities. That constitution does not yet exist, but neither the U.S. nor the Iraqis can afford to give up on it.