A Gloomy Job Picture in Two States Key to Victory

The job picture for February diverged in several states that both parties are contesting most fiercely in the 2004 presidential election, according to federal figures released Wednesday.

Missouri and Ohio lost significant numbers of jobs during the month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. But job gains occurred in five other states seen as key to November’s election: Florida, New Hampshire, Nevada, Oregon and Wisconsin.

Four other states that both sides consider among the most competitive saw small losses in employment, while another -- New Mexico -- experienced no change, the report found.

For President Bush and his presumed Democratic challenger, John F. Kerry, the most important figures may be the large job losses in Ohio and Missouri and the smaller decline in Pennsylvania. Among them, the three states account for 52 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.

Since Bush took office, the states have seen their employment level drop by at least 2.5%, well above the national average, with even more severe losses in manufacturing jobs. And experts say it is increasingly unlikely that the economy will recover enough by November to avoid a net loss of jobs during Bush’s term in these political battlegrounds.

“I don’t think there is any chance states like Ohio or Pennsylvania can come back to the point where they have more jobs than in January 2001,” said Charles W. McMillion, president of MBG Information Services, a Washington-based economics firm that studies job-growth trends.

Bush carried Ohio and Missouri by relatively narrow margins in 2000, and Kerry has both at the top of his list as possible pickups for his presidential bid.

Democrat Al Gore won Pennsylvania four years ago, but Bush has made a concerted effort to woo voters there -- since becoming president, he has traveled to the state 27 times, more than any other.

The best news for Bush in February’s job report was in Wisconsin. The state gained nearly 9,000 jobs in February, and has now seen employment rise by 16,000 in the last year. Gore carried Wisconsin by a razor-thin margin in 2000.

The report released Wednesday details employment on a state-by-state basis through February; on Friday, the labor bureau is scheduled to release the national employment figures through March.

Across the nation, the economy has lost more than 2.2 million jobs since Bush took office in January 2001. The national average for the decline is 1.7%.

The employment numbers have become a central issue in the developing debate between Bush and Kerry and the early decisions by their campaigns about the states to concentrate on in their pursuit of the White House.

Of the dozen states currently seen as the most competitive, only Florida, New Mexico and Nevada have gained jobs since Bush was inaugurated.

According to MBG data, seven others have seen their employment drop by more than the national average: Ohio, Missouri, Pennsylvania, Oregon, New Hampshire, West Virginia and Iowa. Two others have suffered job losses smaller than the national average: Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Against this economic landscape, many Democratic strategists have tilted their focus away from Florida -- the most intensely fought battleground in 2000 -- because the state has gained more than 217,000 jobs under Bush, including 16,000 in February.

Ohio has moved to the center of both parties’ calculations largely because of its faltering economy.

In February, the state lost an additional 10,900 jobs, putting its employment decline under Bush at nearly 239,000 jobs. That represents 4.3% of its total employment, according to an analysis by MBG. Only four states have lost a larger share of jobs during the Bush administration, MBG found.

Missouri shed 19,200 jobs in February; the state is down more than 75,000 jobs since Bush took office.

Pennsylvania saw little change in February -- it lost about 2,000 jobs. But it remains down almost 143,000 jobs since January 2001.