Searching for Reason to Go On

After John F. Kerry’s sweeping victories in Virginia and Tennessee on Tuesday, his remaining major opponents face dwindling prospects of denying him the nomination -- and growing demands to end their candidacies.

For Sen. John Edwards and retired Gen. Wesley K. Clark, who invested far more effort in both states than Kerry, the twin defeats raised a stark question: If they couldn’t beat the Massachusetts senator in these moderate Southern states, where can they beat him?

Clark answered that question late Tuesday night by deciding to leave the race. Edwards’ camp now hopes his chances against Kerry will improve.

Tuesday’s results, however, provide Edwards with little optimism. In Tennessee and Virginia, Kerry beat Edwards even among groups the North Carolina senator had shown strength in the seven states that voted Feb. 3, including moderates and voters most concerned about the economy, exit polls found.

Moreover, the breadth and scale of Kerry’s victories in states that, on paper, offered favorable terrain for his rivals are likely to reinforce his principal strength: the sense among many Democrats that he represents the party’s best hope against President Bush.

In Virginia, exit polls found that just over one-fourth of voters said the personal quality most influencing their decision was the ability to beat Bush -- they preferred Kerry over Edwards by about 3 to 1.

In Tennessee, where about one-fourth of voters also said the ability to beat Bush was the personal quality they most prized, Kerry beat Edwards by more than 2 to 1.

Those results make clear that Edwards and former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean must find an argument that challenges the perception of Kerry as the strongest nominee -- at a time when the voices of party leaders clamoring for the contest to end seem certain to grow louder.

“There is no stomach to continue this,” says veteran Democratic strategist James Carville.

Although Kerry’s rivals might “say they are going to go on, they are going to go on with what?” Carville added. “They are not going to be able to raise any money. All they are going to be doing is answering questions of, when are you going to get out of the race?”

Indeed, the Democratic Party chairmen in Tennessee and Virginia suggested Tuesday night that Kerry’s victories should cause the other contenders to consider stepping aside. “They have to be reassessing their campaigns right now,” said Kerry Donley, the Virginia state chairman. “Clearly, this was a major win in Virginia -- even a stunning win -- for John Kerry.”

Randy Button, the Tennessee Democratic chairman, told reporters: “I think they are going to have to take a serious look at their possibilities and where they are going to be headed with their campaigns.... I would like to see us get unified as soon as possible behind one candidate.”

Similar pressure on Edwards and Dean is likely in the next few days. The Alliance for Economic Justice, a coalition of industrial labor unions that had backed Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri, has scheduled a conference call for Friday to finalize an endorsement of Kerry likely to be made official Tuesday, the day Wisconsin holds its primary, labor sources say.

Several factors made the Virginia and Tennessee results especially impressive for Kerry and discouraging for Clark and Edwards. Kerry barely breezed through the two states -- his appearance in Tennessee on Saturday was his first since April. Clark practically planted himself in Tennessee during the last week, while Edwards campaigned hard in both states.

Clark far outspent both men on television in Tennessee, pouring in $1.06 million through Sunday, compared with about $189,000 for Edwards and $160,000 for Kerry, according to the TNSMI/CMAG ad-tracking group.

In Virginia, Clark spent $1.2 million on television, compared with Kerry’s $698,000 and Edwards’ $259,000.

Ideologically and demographically, Tennessee and Virginia had much in common with the only two states Kerry has lost so far: South Carolina, which Edwards won, and Oklahoma, which Clark carried. Yet Kerry repelled almost all of the beachheads that Edwards and Clark established in those two states on Feb. 3.

That was evident in the results of the exit polls conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International, a cooperative arrangement among the broadcast television networks, CNN and Associated Press. The survey sampled 1,679 voters in Virginia and 2,513 in Tennessee. The margin of sampling error for each state was plus or minus 3 percentage points.

As in most of his earlier victories, Kerry demonstrated a powerful range of appeal Tuesday. In both states, he carried men and women, whites and blacks, voters in every age and income group, and those with and without college degrees.

Kerry beat Clark among veterans by more than 4 to 1 in Virginia and more than 2 to 1 in Tennessee. In a measure of Clark’s erosion, he trailed even Edwards among veterans in both states.

Groups that had been cool to Kerry in South Carolina and Oklahoma warmed to him Tuesday night.

In South Carolina, Edwards beat Kerry among moderates by 20 percentage points, and Kerry trailed Clark and Edwards among moderates in Oklahoma.

But in Virginia, Kerry beat Edwards by 2 to 1 among moderates. In Tennessee, Kerry ran ahead of Edwards among moderates by about 13 percentage points.

Other measures showed Kerry’s growing strength.

Edwards had stressed a bread-and-butter message of economic populism. In both Oklahoma and South Carolina, he carried voters who said their principal concern was the economy, which represented the largest group in both states.

Once again, the economy ranked above other issues for voters in Tennessee and Virginia. But Kerry carried those voters by double-digit margins.

Kerry beat Edwards among Virginia and Tennessee voters who said they believed that trade cost more jobs than it generated in their state. In the last week, the main change Edwards made in his message was to amplify his skepticism of free trade, particularly the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Kerry voted for that treaty in 1993. Yet Edwards, who was not in the Senate then, chose not to criticize Kerry for his position. Edwards’ failure to carry those who shared his position on trade suggest that the distinctions he drew were too subtle to move many voters away from Kerry.

In each state, voters appear to be taking Kerry’s victories in the earlier states as proof that he would be the strongest nominee against Bush. None of his rivals has yet found a way to challenge that dynamic.

Edwards insisted on CNN on Tuesday night that he would remain in the race “for many weeks to come.” But he has been so reluctant to define differences with Kerry that an increasing number of independent analysts and party insiders speculate that he has shifted his focus from catching the front-runner to burnishing his image as a possible running mate or future nominee.

“I think he is so thrilled to be the runner-up, when he was written off entirely, that he is more cautious than he might have been,” said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist.

“This is no longer about ’04. He is young enough and dynamic and has done well enough that ’08 is in the picture. I think he is restrained by his future.”

Edwards’ advisors deny he is pulling his punches and say his contrasts with Kerry will become clearer in a two-man race.

“Our goal Tuesday was to narrow the field to a real race between us and Sen. Kerry,” said David Ginsberg, Edwards’ communications director.

Yet with Dean determined to remain in, it’s not clear that the race will narrow to a Kerry-Edwards choice any time soon.

And even if it does, it won’t be much of a race if one of them is already at, or even beyond, the finish line.