Almost Counts for Edwards in Iowa

Sen. John Edwards’ road to the Democratic presidential nomination follows, for the next half-hour, three sharp turns and then 23 miles of straight two-lane highway past snow-sugared corn fields, a few barnyards of steaming cattle and the occasional cluster of leafless trees.

Edwards had already made five 30-minute presentations in five farm communities in northwest Iowa; two more wereplanned before a two-hour nighttime drive to his hotel in the eastern part of the state. It’s a grueling pace, and at each stop Edwards runs through a slightly varied version of the same spiel, drawing parallels between his own life and those of the people whose votes he’s trying to win in the Jan. 19 Iowa caucuses.

When he talks to voters, Edwards is pure focused energy, equal parts trial lawyer -- which he was for 20 years -- and salesman, which is the not-so-hidden soul of successful politics.

But now, in the middle seat of a minivan and ready to answer questions until the next event in half an hour, the wind has gone out of Edwards’ sails. He yawns a few times, rubs his eyes and tries to be gracious, but he obviously wishes he were doing something else, like finding the University of North Carolina basketball game on the radio, or napping like his law-student daughter in the seat behind him.

Instead, he is contending with a question that won’t go away. Polls show him frozen at about 5% here in the Democrats’ critical first political test of the year -- a distant fourth behind former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, Rep. Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri and Sen. John F. Kerry of Massachusetts.

“I think we’re actually doing significantly better than that,” Edwards counters, citing internal tracking, his growing state organization and the belief that the bulk of Iowa’s Democrats would not pay serious attention until after the holidays.

“Look at the history,” he says. “There’s always been huge movement in the caucuses during January. I’m absolutely certain that over half the caucus-goers have not made up their minds.”

Edwards sees his own future in Gephardt’s past. The Missouri Democrat surged from similar ground -- a 6% standing in Iowa in December 1987 -- to win the 1988 caucuses a few weeks later. Edwards does not note the other shoe in that historical parable: Gephardt lost the nomination to a New England governor, Michael S. Dukakis, who in turn lost the general election to the current president’s father.

Independent analysts and Rob Berntsen, Edwards’ Iowa caucus director, say that the North Carolina senator can declare a partial victory even if he loses here. They agree that a third-place finish -- presumably ahead of Kerry -- would give him added credibility going into the New Hampshire primary eight days later. It could also help in seven other contests on Feb. 3, including primaries in South Carolina, where Edwards leads in some polls, and Oklahoma, where he’s doing well.

But a fourth-place Iowa finish in the single digits -- in essence, where the campaign lingers now with four weeks to go -- would not bode well.

“He just has not caught on,” said Arthur Miller, a political science professor at the University of Iowa. “He doesn’t seem to be differentiating himself from the other candidates.”

That’s not for lack of effort. By the time Jan. 19 rolls around, Edwards will have spent 64 days campaigning in Iowa, including 17 days between now and caucus day. Still, that’s several days fewer than Dean and Kerry are expected to rack up.

Saturday, Edwards’ 46th day in Iowa, opened at the Pizza Ranch in downtown Pocahontas, a small village crisscrossed at the edges by the tracks of snowmobiles and wild rabbits.

Before about 40 prospective voters, Edwards launched into his stock speech about his fears that the small-town America he knew as a child in North Carolina, and that defines much of Iowa, is disappearing under the dual pressures of the North American Free Trade Agreement and consolidation in the agricultural industry. In fact, the middle class everywhere, he said, is overwhelmed by financial insecurity. Bush’s Iraq policy is failing, Edwards said, as is his “No Child Left Behind” educational package and, please, can we talk about that prescription drug program?

Something, Edwards invariably says, needs to be done. Invoking the ghosts of FDR and JFK, he argued that the Democratic Party should show the way out of the Bushian darkness, the flag of progress held firmly in his own hands.

It was a receptive audience, and their questions led Edwards through comfortable ground. By the end he had hit on most of the themes contained in “Real Solutions for America,” his 53-page vision for the country. As he shook hands on the way to the crowded front door, Joyce Rigby, 67, a librarian in nearby Laurens, gave the senator a strong review.

Kerry, she said, angered her by attacking Dean over his comments that the capture of Saddam Hussein has not made Americans safer. She likes that Edwards has made it a hallmark of his campaign to not attack his competitors, and today Edwards rose to No. 2 on her list. But he didn’t close the sale.

“No,” Rigby said, “I’m pretty much committed to Dean.”

At the next stop, McNally’s Bakery in Emmetsburg, almost 30 miles north of Pocahontas, Edwards drew a similar reaction. People like what he has to say, but they just aren’t won over.

“I’m very impressed, and I’m certainly glad he came,” said Tom Hoover, co-chair of the Palo Alto County Democratic Party. “The big thing I want is to beat George Bush. Electability is huge in our discussions.”

Later, in the minivan, Edwards absorbed the reactions, then shrugged them off.

“People have to get to know you and like you before they’ll decide to caucus for you,” he said, arguing that to most he is still an unknown quantity.

And no matter what happens in Iowa, Edwards will move on to New Hampshire, then South Carolina and Oklahoma. In September, he announced that he would not seek reelection to his Senate seat, which is up next year. It was a roll of the dice, and even as his energy ebbed on an Iowa afternoon, Edwards retained his confidence.

“I’m focusing on the nomination,” said Edwards, 50, as the lowering sun cast the frozen landscape in a golden glow. “I have natural longevity in this process. I am leading now in South Carolina, tied for the lead in Oklahoma ... and we have been consistently moving up in New Hampshire. So it’s just the natural order of things, and the geography of the race, that favors me being in it for the long haul.”

Edwards talked again about Iowa Democrats being distracted by Christmas, and about the fickleness of the caucuses.

“I think, in their minds, the gun’s not to their heads yet,” he said as the minivan rolled up outside the Sibley Senior Center, where 20 interested Democrats waited inside. “They think, first we’ll get through Christmas, we’ll get to January and that’s when this thing gets serious.”

The minivan parked, and there was a bustle as Edwards and his aides prepared to get out. “What are we doing here, anything different?” Edwards asked an aide. No, came the answer, and Edwards, coatless, stepped into the Iowa dusk. At the end of the sidewalk a short woman with gray hair and a bright Christmas sweater stood ready to greet him. Two shows to go, and then that long drive into the night to come.