Poll offers some good news for incumbents (sort of, anyway)

It may be hard for most media consumers to believe, but there is some good news for incumbents running in this year’s midterm elections. According to a Gallup poll released Friday, slightly more than half of all registered voters said their congressional representative deserves to be reelected.

To be sure, that good news comes with some big caveats. The 51% who back their local congressperson is the lowest midterm figure in the past 16 years. The poll also found that just 33% of those surveyed said that most members of Congress collectively deserve reelection, a number that is below 1994 and 2006, when there were significant changes in the composition of Congress.

The poll is likely to fuel this year’s favorite electoral narrative that Republicans have benefited from a strong anti-incumbent movement among voters, upset at a government run by Democrats, who have not moved fast enough to deal with a poor economy. The GOP has also capitalized on voter unhappiness with such Democratic programs as the healthcare insurance overhaul and financial reform.

But the poll also shows some of the deeper structural secrets of the U.S. political system. First, despite the stresses and cracks, Americans historically like their representatives and tend to reelect them even at times when voters believe the governmental institutions have failed to meet their needs. This year will likely be no different. Republicans need a net 39 seats to win the House and a change of 10 to control the Senate -- about 10% of the total seats at stake.

Secondly and unsurprisingly, those out of power are likely to be more critical of those in charge and hence more enthusiastic about voting. In the Gallup poll, Republicans and independents are substantially less likely than Democrats to say most members of Congress deserve reelection. Republicans and independents are those that other polls show are more eager to vote this year.

And lastly, as Election Day on Nov. 2 approaches, the party in power, in this case the Democrats, increasingly says members deserve reelection, a common reassertion as voters go home to their party choices.

The poll is based on telephone interviews with 935 voters between Oct. 14 to 17. It has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.

michael.muskal@latimes.com

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