The early vote: If there’s a GOP surge, Democrats don’t see it

Sports buffs like to say that a win at the beginning of the season counts just as much as a win when the end of the season approaches. Would that elections were as simple as sports.

As more people take advantage of the growing number of states that allow early voting – casting a ballot before election day – the issue of what that vote means has moved to the fore, as has the question of whether it has a predictive value beyond the partisan propaganda of galvanizing voters.

The latest entry in the political hot-stove league is a memorandum, released Monday, from Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) that argues that Democrats are holding their own or are even ahead in some of the early voting in key states.

Using its own modeling, the Democrats found that “despite national momentum being on the Republican side for months, we are not seeing anything resembling a Republican surge. In fact, to the contrary, in key Senate races, we are seeing encouraging signs for Democrats,” the memo states.

The key point for Democrats, of course, is to counter the media and poll reports that voter unhappiness has given the GOP an edge in enthusiasm, hence a leg up in turnout for the midterm elections. The Democratic fear is that the perception that the GOP is running very strongly in congressional and gubernatorial races will become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Because of the secrecy of the ballot, no one really knows how the estimated 3 million early ballots were cast. But many jurisdictions release which party is claimed by voters casting an early ballot (or if they claimed independent status), giving some fodder for discussion until the votes are counted, starting when the real polls close on Nov. 2.

michael.muskal@latimes.com

Twitter.com/LATimesmuskal