Iowa bounce unlikely as Rick Santorum moves on to New Hampshire

Rick Santorum faces a real challenge in trying to transfer the momentum he built in the closing days of the Iowa campaign into New Hampshire, a state that often shrugs off more socially conservative candidates that catch fire in the caucuses.

Any boost that Santorum sees in the coming days is more likely to be a consequence of the narrowing GOP field, not a reaction of Granite Staters to the Iowa result, experts say.

“Historically [the Iowa result] has had little impact in New Hampshire, particularly on the Republican side. That’s largely because the electorate is very different,” University of New Hampshire pollster Andy Smith said. “New Hampshire Republicans are moderate northeastern Republicans for whom social issues are largely unimportant.”

FULL RESULTS: Iowa GOP caucuses

Mike Huckabee’s win in the 2008 Iowa caucuses did little to enhance his standing in the Granite State. A UNH poll conducted before the Iowa vote put Huckabee at 10% in New Hampshire; he finished with just over 11% of the actual primary vote.

Forty-five percent of 2008 Iowa caucusgoers identified themselves in an entrance poll as “very conservative,” compared with just 21% of New Hampshire GOP primary voters in an exit poll five days later.

Smith said that likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters today are more pro-choice than the nation as a whole. And nearly half actually say they are opposed to repealing New Hampshire’s gay marriage law. Santorum is thus “really out of step” with the state’s electorate.

Former Gov. John Sununu, a Romney supporter, did offer Monday that New Hampshire “is the place where strong conservatives like Ronald Reagan got their start.”

“There is a slight conservative lean in the Republican side,” he said. “[But] you have to come in here and talk about all the issues, and you have to talk about them in a way that lets voters think you’re going to have a chance of being elected if you win the nomination.”

Romney is, however, working against historical precedent. Other than incumbent presidents, no Republican who has won the Iowa caucuses has also won the New Hampshire primary. Then again, Romney’s margin of victory -- just eight votes -- amounted really to a statistical tie.

“It’s more difficult to see a really bad scenario with Romney, but it certainly could happen,” Smith said. “It would require him to have some major screw-ups on the campaign trail -- major, major screw-ups. And he’s just a much better candidate this time around than he was in 2008.”

Santorum has made a more robust effort to campaign in New Hampshire than most would expect.

“I’ve been to New Hampshire 30 times and have been more times and done more events than anybody but Jon Huntsman. And he cheats; he lives there,” Santorum joked in his caucus-night speech in Iowa.

But the best he could expect is to perhaps shrink what is for the moment a more than 20-point advantage for Romney in New Hampshire, and score a win in expectations of the kind Bill Clinton enjoyed with his second-place showing in the 1992 Democratic primary.

A quick influx of cash and two televised debates planned this weekend could represent his best chance to dent Romney’s expected strong showing. Newt Gingrich has also telegraphed that he plans to hammer Romney for what he terms a moderate record, which could also benefit the other candidates.

Other remaining candidates -- Ron Paul and Huntsman -- were unlikely to catch fire, Smith said.

“Huntsman and Paul are actually competing for the same vote -- they’re competing for the non-Republican vote,” he said -- adding that the demographic will likely account for just 20% of the total turnout.