China Tries New Tactic With Taiwan

Today’s historic meeting between Chinese President Hu Jintao and Lien Chan, head of Taiwan’s opposition Nationalist Party, highlights Beijing’s more nuanced policy toward Taipei even as, some analysts say, its fundamental approach remains the same.

“It’s classic divide-and-conquer strategy: Assemble the most allies possible and isolate your enemy,” said Jean-Philippe Beja, senior fellow at the Center for International Studies and Research in Paris. “But they’re not playing this one badly. It’s a pretty smart move.”

While Beijing extends a hand to Taiwan’s pro-Beijing opposition, it has maintained its distance from the democratically elected Taiwanese government headed by President Chen Shui-bian. Tensions between Taipei and Beijing have been strained during Chen’s five years in office as his administration pursued a pro-independence course for an island China considers part of its territory.

Nevertheless, China said Thursday that it wished to establish a relationship with Chen’s Democratic Progressive Party.

Beijing hopes to accomplish several things with the first top-level meeting between the Communists and Nationalists since the latter fled across the Taiwan Strait from the mainland in 1949 after losing the civil war.

It aims to win points internationally by appearing more reasonable and willing to compromise after the public relations disaster that followed last month’s passage of an anti-secession law that codified China’s willingness to use force against Taiwan if the island pursued independence.

China will reinforce that image with a meeting in coming weeks between Hu and a second major Taiwanese opposition figure, People First Party Chairman James Soong.

“These invitations for Taiwanese to visit help China regain the international high ground in cross-strait matters,” said Shen Dingli, a foreign policy expert at Fudan University in Shanghai. “And it deflects international focus from the anti-secession law.”

Beijing’s not-so-subtle message, analysts say, is that it’s willing to meet with “reasonable” Taiwanese leaders but not “unreasonable” government officials.

In a speech this morning at prestigious Beijing University, the Nationalist leader called on the former foes to “build a bridge to unite our people.... We can’t stay in the past forever.”

A second Beijing objective from today’s meeting is to win over Taiwanese public opinion.

China has possible carrots it can offer to appeal directly to the Taiwanese people. These include reducing the number of missiles aimed at the island, from the current 700; opening its market to more Taiwanese farm products; allowing mainland tourists to visit Taiwan; allowing Taiwan limited membership in some international bodies; joint hosting of the 2008 Olympics; and even the gift of a panda.

China also hopes to box in Chen politically. Analysts said Beijing wants to force Chen to either soften his pro-independence line and make overtures to China in hopes of securing a historical legacy, or reject the initiative and appear churlish.

Beijing’s recent more flexible approach follows years of often clunky moves that included lobbing missiles in the island’s direction and issuing verbal threats before Taiwanese elections in hopes of intimidating voters. More often than not, the moves backfired.

“For quite some time, Beijing’s policies have not seemed to reach Taiwanese hearts and minds. Not only was the Taiwanese government moving further away; more alarming, the people of Taiwan also moved further away. They’ve been forced to make a very painful reassessment,” said Chao Chien-min, a professor at Taiwan’s National Chengchi University.

Whether China’s efforts this time will resonate in Taiwan remains to be seen. Several Taipei residents expressed skepticism that people could be swayed by such obvious gestures.

“We don’t need pandas, they’re too expensive to take care of,” said Tseng Su-feng, a 25-year-old English teacher.

“Beijing is just throwing us some candies in exchange for Lien Chan kissing up to them,” said Hsu Chung-cheng, a 23-year old computer engineer.

Joseph Wu, chairman of Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council, acknowledged that China’s overtures would put international pressure on Taiwan. Although the offers looked reasonable, he said, they were designed to make Taiwan accept Chinese control.

“Opposition parties’ leaders shaking hands with Beijing officials create the impression that Beijing has ended its hostility to Taiwan,” Wu said. “But Beijing is actually aiming more and more missiles at us and building more and more submarines.”

Chen didn’t help his case in the public relations battle, others said. When Lien announced the trip, Chen accused his opponent of selling out to the mainland. Only later, as public interest grew, did he soften his stance.

“He backed away, but a bit too late and a bit too little,” said Rick Baum, a political science professor from Southern California. “Chen’s been put on the defensive. Now he’s the tail and the opposition is the dog.”

Analysts said, however, that Lien and his Chinese hosts walk a fine line with their temporary marriage of convenience. Chen could benefit if Lien missteps during his eight-day trip, most notably if he appears too cozy with Beijing.

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Times staff writer Magnier reported from Beijing and special correspondent Tsai from Taipei.