Dean Is Top Pick of Party Leaders

Howard Dean has emerged as the leading presidential pick among Democratic Party leaders, with more than twice the support of his closest rivals, according to a new Los Angeles Times Poll.

But the former Vermont governor is far from a consensus candidate, despite his recent run of success. About seven in 10 of the Democratic National Committee members interviewed said they backed some other contestant or remained undecided.

The poll shows the great progress Dean has made as a candidate in the last year. A similar sample taken in November 2002 found Dean in fifth place out of 10 prospective White House contenders. He was unknown to nearly half of those questioned.

At the same time, however, the new survey suggests that the Democratic contest remains fluid. With just more than a month until the first votes are cast, roughly one in five of the DNC members had not decided whom to support in the party’s nominating fight.

“Though Dean is ahead in virtually every way you can measure this race, there clearly is some resistance to his nomination within the party establishment,” said Charles Cook, editor and publisher of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. “This isn’t yet a case of ‘the train’s leaving the station, we’d better jump on.’ ... As well as things have seemed to be going for Dean, this nomination is not wrapped up just yet.”

Dean was favored by 32% of the Democratic leaders surveyed, followed by Rep. Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri at 15% and Sen. John F. Kerry of Massachusetts at 14%.

Retired Army Gen. Wesley K. Clark had 7% support, Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina 5%, Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut 3%, and former Sen. Carol Moseley Braun of Illinois 1%. Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich of Ohio and the Rev. Al Sharpton each had less than 1% backing.

The Democratic National Committee consists of roughly 450 local and state party leaders who make up the national party’s governing body. Most will be delegates at the Democratic National Convention next summer. Many also control purse strings and hold sway over the party’s message and election mechanics in communities across the country.

The Times Poll, under the direction of Susan Pinkus, interviewed 327 of 386 selected DNC members. Those who traditionally stay neutral until the nomination fight is settled -- such as national Chairman Terry McAuliffe -- were not included, nor were committee members living abroad.

The survey began Dec. 4 and ended Thursday. On Monday, word surfaced that former Vice President Al Gore would endorse Dean the next day. The nod from Gore appears to have benefited Dean among these party insiders.

Twenty-nine percent of DNC members surveyed before the endorsement said they backed Dean. Of the members surveyed after Gore’s announcement, 44% favored Dean.

The poll also found a party hungering for victory and convinced that President Bush is highly vulnerable, despite an improving economy and his substantial fundraising advantage.

Forty-four percent of those interviewed said their main criterion in picking a candidate was whether that person could win the White House, while a third said the most important factor was a candidate’s position on issues. By contrast, in last year’s survey nearly half those questioned said the most important factor was a candidate’s beliefs, and fewer than a quarter cited electability.

“I just want to beat that son of a gun,” Emilie Holroyd, an undecided committee member from West Virginia, said of Bush. “He’s the worst thing that’s happened to this country since 1776.”

That starkly negative view was widely shared among the Democratic leaders.

Ninety-four percent said the country was heading in the wrong direction, an assessment far more harsh than the view of rank-and-file Democrats. In a nationwide survey The Times conducted in November, 72% of Democrats said the country was on the wrong track, compared with 50% of all adults interviewed.In the new survey, 64% of rank-and-file Democrats believed the economy was in poor shape, compared with 86% of party leaders.

It is not surprising, then, that nearly all of the Democratic committee members surveyed -- 96% -- believe that Bush can be beaten next year.

“I don’t think anybody believes it’s going to be an easy election,” said Gwethalyn Phillips, Maine’s former Democratic Party chair and a Dean backer. “But more and more I do feel a sense of growing unease among people I talk to.”

With a field of nine contestants to choose from, party leaders are largely pleased with the candidates seeking the White House, although not overwhelmingly so. Although three-quarters said they were satisfied with the presidential field, 8% said they would like to see Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York run, and 7% would like Gore to enter the race.

Both have said they have no intention of running, which Gore made clear last week by endorsing Dean.

Most of the declared candidates enjoy high approval ratings from DNC members, with favorable ratings of 80% or more. Lieberman -- the most conservative of the Democrats running -- and Moseley Braun were seen somewhat less favorably, with approval from about two-thirds of those interviewed. Kucinich received mixed reviews, with 49% of those surveyed viewing him positively and 38% negatively.

The candidate who has done the most to turn his image around is Sharpton, who has shown considerable flair at several of this year’s candidate debates. Fifty-three percent viewed him positively; a year ago, two-thirds of party loyalists had an unfavorable impression of Sharpton, including 40% who were “very” unfavorable.

That said, Dean has done by far the most to boost his chances of winning the White House.

A longshot starting out, he has raised the most money of any Democrat running, secured the endorsement of two of the nation’s largest and most powerful labor groups -- the Service Employees International Union and the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees -- and sits atop the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire, the states that begin the presidential nominating process. That rising support is reflected in his embrace by a growing number of party leaders.

Dean’s 32% backing in the new survey compares with 6% a year ago, when Gore -- who was still deciding whether to run -- and Kerry were the favorites of Democratic leaders. Edwards was next, followed by Gephardt.

Since that time, all the candidates, save Dean and Gephardt, have lost support among party insiders. (Some of those included in the last survey chose not to run.) Gephardt’s 15% backing was up from 10% in November 2002.

Kerry dipped from 18% support to 14%, and Edwards fell from 13% to 5%. Clark, who entered the contest in September, was not included in the earlier survey. (Nineteen percent favored Gore in the November 2002 poll.)

As a testament to Dean’s increased strength, he is now seen as the candidate best able to defeat Bush.

Thirty percent of DNC members said Dean would be the most vigorous nominee the party could put up in 2004, while 14% cited Clark. Gephardt and Kerry were named by 13% each. A year ago, 2% chose Dean.

“I don’t think we can win by offering people ‘Bush lite,’ ” said David T. McDonald, a Dean backer and national committee member from Washington state. He said he was first attracted to the former governor when he watched him take on his rivals in a speech to DNC members last winter. “There has to be a choice, and there has to be someone who can energize people.”

Although Dean broke from the crowded Democratic field in good part because of his staunch opposition to the war in Iraq -- and his attacks on Democratic rivals who supported the invasion -- he has become more than just an antiwar candidate in the eyes of supporters.

Indeed, Dean was the favorite even among those party officials who cited jobs, the economy and health care as their top concerns.

Overall, DNC members downplayed the significance of the war as a political issue. Asked which issue was most important for the Democratic candidates to address, jobs and the economy were named by 60% while 37% cited the war in Iraq.

The survey suggested some conflict between personal sentiment and political calculations.

While nearly six in 10 said they personally preferred a candidate who opposed the war in Iraq, close to half said that position would make it tougher for the party’s nominee to beat Bush in November 2004.

All in all, 91% of DNC members said the situation in Iraq didn’t merit going to war. That compared with 60% of rank-and-file Democrats in the recent Times Poll. Among adults interviewed for that survey, 48% said conditions in Iraq justified the war and 43% said they did not.

“We shouldn’t have gone in the way we did,” said Iris Martinez, a vice chair of the Illinois Democratic Party, who is looking closely at Dean and Kerry but has not yet chosen. “We need to bring the troops home.”

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(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)

Dean leads

Democratic National Committee members were asked their first choice for the party’s presidential nominee.

*--* Howard Dean 32% Richard A. Gephardt 15% John F. Kerry 14% Wesley K. Clark 7% John Edwards 5% Joe Lieberman 3% Carol Moseley Braun 1% Al Sharpton - Dennis J. Kucinich - Someone else 1% None/Don’t know 22%

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Source: Los Angeles Times poll of Democratic National Committee members

Times staff writer John M. Glionna and Times Poll data management supervisor Claudia Vaughn contributed to this report.