Bush Faces a Defining Month on World Stage

From Rome to Istanbul, President Bush faces a diplomatic gantlet in June that could burnish his image as an international leader or provide new ammunition for Sen. John F. Kerry’s charge that he has isolated the U.S. in the world.

With anxiety over Iraq dominating the presidential race, an unusual concentration of international summits offers Bush probably his best opportunity before election day to highlight his credentials as a world leader on a stage unavailable to Kerry, his presumptive Democratic challenger.

But next month’s events -- a commemoration of the 60th anniversary of D-day in France; a gathering of leaders of the world’s top industrialized nations on Sea Island, Ga; U.S.-European Union talks in Ireland and a NATO summit in Turkey -- also present Bush with unusual risks, many analysts agree.

If the meetings do not produce much tangible help on Iraq or reveal continuing tension with traditional allies, they could reinforce Kerry’s central foreign policy argument against Bush: that he has alienated too many other nations, leaving the U.S. bearing too much of the burden in Iraq.

“If ... the feeling is that things are harmonious, that will play to Bush’s advantage,” said Steven Kull, director of the University of Maryland’s program on International Policy Attitudes. “But if information comes back about demonstrations -- about criticism and hostility -- and the image of the world being critical of us grows, that could significantly hurt him.”

International summits often have been perfunctory and predictable events. In an election year, such meetings have provided presidents a relatively low-risk opportunity to emphasize a “stature gap” with challengers by spotlighting their role as a global leader.

But because this year’s presidential race is revolving so much around foreign policy in general -- and Iraq in particular -- analysts in both parties believe the pressure on Bush to produce concrete achievements may be higher than usual.

“If these opportunities come and go without more help [on Iraq], it is going to be a disaster,” said one Republican activist close to the Bush campaign. “He’s selling himself as a leader. But right now, who’s he leading?”

Richard Holbrooke, U.N. ambassador under President Clinton and a top foreign policy advisor to Kerry, said the meetings offer Bush “a tremendous opportunity” to rebuild ties abroad and polish his foreign policy credentials at home. But Holbrooke said that if Bush returns empty-handed on Iraq, especially from the NATO summit June 27-29, “I would say he’s failed again.”

Adding to the stakes for Bush is the timing. These gatherings will occur as the administration plans to transfer authority to an interim Iraqi government on June 30 and hopes to win a United Nations resolution blessing the handoff.

Administration officials and European diplomats are cautiously optimistic about reaching consensus on a resolution, which would give Bush an important victory during this period of intense scrutiny. Kerry’s case against Bush, however, could be bolstered if the talks on the resolution bog down.

Beyond the substance of the meetings, the month’s whirlwind of diplomatic activity may provide powerful symbols that shape the campaign debate.

Images from the D-day commemoration June 6 in Normandy, France, could suggest reconciliation between Bush and the European leaders who will join him. The occasion also could allow the president to link the struggle in Iraq with U.S. sacrifices in World War II.

“At a time when the images are filling the screens of U.S. soldiers in positions that are not exactly fantastic, reviving the memories of the sacrifices of ‘the greatest generation’ ... could be key,” said one Western diplomat sympathetic to the Iraq war.

On the other hand, Bush’s visits to Rome and Paris en route to Normandy and his trip to Istanbul, Turkey, expose him to the risk of large protests.

Italian opposition parties are organizing demonstrations against Bush. In Paris, left-leaning groups have called for similar protests, but observers there say it is unclear how much response they will generate -- especially against the backdrop of the celebration of the U.S. role in liberating France from Nazi Germany.

Still, the protests could be an eye-opener for many Americans because polling has shown that only a minority believe that public opinion in most other countries opposed the war in Iraq, Kull said.

In University of Maryland surveys, he added, those who believe world opinion mostly opposed the war are much cooler toward Bush than those who think most other nations supported it. As a result, Kull said, extensive protests could hurt Bush by deepening a sense that the U.S. is fighting in Iraq without much international support.

Signs are growing that next month’s sessions will produce some accomplishments Bush can use to counter the broader charge that he cannot mobilize allies to work with the U.S.

Administration officials and foreign diplomats are most optimistic that the leaders of industrial nations meeting at the G-8 summit in Georgia from June 7 to 10 will approve a Bush proposal for a “Greater Middle East Initiative” aimed at encouraging democratic reform in the Muslim world.

“The prospect for something useful coming out on that are good,” said one senior European diplomat in Washington, who requested anonymity.

The plan’s measures range from loans for economic development to grants to support local reform groups.

Similarly, it appears likely that NATO will approve the so-called Istanbul Cooperative Initiative that seeks to expand military ties between the alliance and Middle Eastern countries, officials say.

The two initiatives would not provide direct assistance to the U.S. mission in Iraq. Some Democrats, such as former NATO Supreme Commander Wesley K. Clark, question whether they would even do much to improve long-term relations between the West and the Arab world.

“There is a legacy of colonialism in the region” that makes Arab nations resistant to Western efforts to influence their forms of government, said Clark, who sought the Democratic nomination this year.

Still, agreement on such initiatives could allow Bush to argue that other world leaders share his vision that encouraging democratic reform in the Middle East is key to suppressing terrorism over the long-term.

“I’m sure that one of the themes [from these summits] will be that he has on board the leaders of the world in thinking about this region now,” said Henry R. Nau, professor of international affairs at George Washington University and a former aide to President Reagan. “Without being explicit about it, he is suggesting that the intervention in Iraq is part of this effort to move the region in the direction of more political liberalization.”

Yet consensus on long-term projects may not meet Bush’s most pressing political need if the procession of summits fails to produce more immediate help in Iraq. And that may be far more difficult.

At hearings before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee last week, senior administration officials acknowledged it was unlikely that NATO would provide significant numbers of troops or accept an operational role in Iraq -- as Kerry has urged.

“We’d love to see a larger NATO role,” testified Deputy Defense Secretary Paul D. Wolfowitz. “[But] I don’t think anybody is going to want to put a lot of troops into Iraq until the killing stops.”

NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said last week that he expected the alliance’s summit to focus on its difficulties meeting existing obligations to help secure Afghanistan.

Philip H. Gordon, a fellow at the Brookings Institution think tank and coauthor of the new book “Allies at War: America, Europe and the Crisis Over Iraq,” said that most European leaders have grown so alienated from Bush’s foreign policy that they are unlikely to endorse any practical steps that would significantly reduce the pressure on the U.S. in Iraq.

“The Europeans would never say it, but the last thing in the world they want is to allow George Bush to preside over a united West and show that we still have allies,” Gordon said.

Another senior European diplomat in Washington, requesting anonymity, said that NATO, eager to avoid an open breach with Bush, would look for ways to signal support, perhaps through training Iraqi troops.

“You will get language which the Bush administration can use to say Sen. Kerry is wrong when he says [the U.S.] has been abandoned by all [its] European allies, and that’s what this is about to a certain extent,” the diplomat said.

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Times staff writers Edwin Chen in Washington and Sebastian Rotella in London contributed to this report.