Ready for 300 million

THE FIRST BABY TO BE BORN in a new year is a celebrity, however transitory, and he or she can look forward to years of embarrassment when proud parents pull out that clipping from the local paper. But no camera is likely to record a more significant demographic milestone than the arrival of the 300 millionth living human inhabitant of the United States, projected by the U.S. Census Bureau to occur in mid-October.

We say “arrival” because he or she may achieve that distinction not by drawing breath on U.S. soil but by arriving from somewhere else. According to the bureau, an international migrant arrives in this country every 31 seconds. On the other hand, a baby is born in the United States every seven seconds. That leads experts to believe that No. 300 million is likelier to enter the population data base the old-fashioned way, with a slap and a scream.

Some prognosticators are even more specific. In an interview with USA Today, demographer Peter Francese predicted that No. 300 million will be a baby boy born of “a white, non-Hispanic woman living in the South” aged either 28 or 29. The lucky day: Oct. 27. The Census Bureau wisely won’t be pinned down on the precise location of the statistical blessed event. But the agency has provided the public and the media with lots of other information related to this demographic B-day. In a news release this week, the bureau offered several folksy factoids about how the U.S. has changed as it has become more crowded.

In 1915, the bureau says, when the population was a measly 100 million, the price of a gallon of gasoline (measured in 2006 dollars) was $5.01. When the population doubled to 200 million, in 1967, the price had dipped to $2. This week it was $3.04 -- though there’s no telling where it will be Oct. 27.

In 1915, the bureau says, the Model T and silent movies were “the rage.” In 1967, the rage was color TV. Increase the population to 300 million and our affections turn to iPods, “American Idol” and cellphones. No information is available, however, about what “the rage” will be in 2040, when the bureau projects a population of 400 million. Biodegradable BlackBerrys? Super sunblock to combat global warming?

Wait! We know: predictions about where and when No. 400 million will be born.