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Tour de France: Lance Armstrong waits to make move

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Lance Armstrong will make an attack in this Tour de France — no one doubts that. Where and when and how? That’s to be a surprise.

It might come as soon as Sunday, in the second Alps stage, which features a mountaintop finish in Morzine-Avoriaz. Or it might happen Tuesday, after the riders take their first day of rest and when some might feel enough extra energy to propel them over a top-rated climb at Madeleine.

When it happens, Armstrong will be prepared.

This prediction comes not from an Armstrong RadioShack teammate or coach but from Allan Peiper, sports director for HTC-Columbia, a team that has its own aspirations in the Tour and has nothing invested in Armstrong.

“On paper,” Peiper said, “Lance has the best team around him, enough troops, to take a race and isolate others. Lance has the guys around him, super-strong right down the ranks, to pick a mountain stage and animate this race.”

Mark Cavendish of HTC-Columbia won his second consecutive stage Friday, finishing the 141.4-mile route that began in Montargis in a time of 5 hours 37 minutes 42 seconds by just nosing his bike ahead of Garmin-Transitions’ Tyler Farrar.

Nothing major changed in the overall standings either. Switzerland’s Fabian Cancellara of Saxo Bank still wears the yellow jersey and seven-time champion Armstrong is in 18th place overall, 2:30 behind Cancellara.

But as the Tour leaves the sprinter roads behind and turns to the Alps for big mountain stages Saturday, Sunday and Tuesday, there is anticipation from supporters and competitors alike about where and when the seven-time champion will attack. It’s not a matter of if.

Jim Miller, vice president of athletics for USA Cycling, says the race for the yellow jersey is just about ready to really get going.

“All of the riders will need to go on the attack at some point if they want to win,” Miller said. “And once riders go on the attack, they put themselves out there.”

It is when a cyclist decides to make a mountain move that trouble can find them, especially if the team around them is not strong.

For example, Miller said, defending champion Alberto Contador of Astana, who is ninth overall right now and 50 seconds ahead of Armstrong, and 2008 runner-up Cadel Evans of BMC Racing, who is third overall, could find themselves isolated and without teammates to help set a tempo or to keep up with a breakaway.

Miller said Armstrong and RadioShack team director Johan Bruyneel also have tactical ability on their side.

“They are both clever,” Miller said. “They will find an opportunity to exploit and attack.”

Peiper said Saturday’s stage into the Alps isn’t as suited for one of the overall contenders to make a decisive move.

“It’s a tricky stage, but I don’t know that it’s going to make so much difference to the real contenders,” he said. “There will be breakaways, and there is a danger that none of the leading teams will want to defend a breakaway.”

Sunday’s climbs are a different story.

“I would expect there to be some aggressive racing Sunday,” Miller said. “It used to be that Armstrong could get control in a time trial and then everybody would have to follow his wheel. Now it’s a little different. But the one thing in the mountains is that you need somebody to bring the speed up, you need somebody to bring the level of suffering to a really sharp point.

“RadioShack has the guns to do that with Levi [Leipheimer], Andreas [Kloeden]. Will the other contending teams have that? We’ll see.”

Miller also anticipates Sunday’s stage to be the one to watch for another reason.

“After the Tour de Suisse last month,” he said, “RadioShack spent a couple of extra days in order to have a look at that stage.”

Armstrong himself suggested that, starting this weekend, the quality of his team would matter. Besides Leipheimer and Kloeden, Armstrong mentioned Slovenian star Janes Brajkovic and U.S. veteran Chris Horner as intrepid mountain helpers.

“They’ll be good,” Armstrong said. “I think we will have five guys there. Numbers will help us.”

diane.pucin@latimes.com

twitter.com/mepucin

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