Planes, cruises and trips to Europe: the outlook for 2006

FOR more than 30 years, Susan Tanzman, owner of Martin’s Travel and Tours Inc. in Los Angeles, has been a passionate advocate for consumers and travel agents alike.

She helped develop California’s tough 1996 Seller of Travel law, which requires travel companies to register with the attorney general and prove they have consumer protection plans.

Now she has won her profession’s top honor, being named 2005 Travel Agent of the Year by the American Society of Travel Agents, a trade association with more than 20,000 members in 140 countries based in Alexandria, Va.

I recently asked Tanzman what she sees for travel in 2006. As always, she was outspoken. Here are excerpts from our Dec. 19 chat:

Question: What do you see happening in air travel in the next year?

Answer: Unfortunately, the airlines have yet to have a clue of how to run an airline properly. All the concern now is [that] they’re looking at the bottom line ... either get out of bankruptcy, avoid going into bankruptcy or not going into it for a third or fourth time.

I think everything’s up for grabs on what they’re going to start charging you. I was on a flight where someone said we had to pay extra for a pillow.... All they’re doing is nickeling and diming the consumer.

Next year is going to be the experimental time to see how much can we [the airlines] charge, get away with and still maintain a relationship with the consumer.

And I think they’re going to play more and more games with their mileage programs. They tell you it’s 35,000 miles, let’s say, to go to Hawaii, but if you want to do it on the 19th or you want to do it on the 24th of December, it could cost you 70,000 to 90,000 for the exact same ticket.

And you’re going to see more and more people going a year in advance ... booking their seats because of worry. And they have every reason to worry about it, because during the peak season, [airlines have] cut back on those seat allotments.

They’re going to try every mechanism they can to squeeze more and more out of the consumer.

Q: What do you see happening on international prices, perks and so on?

A: They’re going to give us great deals in the off-season, and prices are going to go skyrocketing during in-season.

Q: Why?

A: Because you don’t have a healthy airline industry. The problem is that because everyone has cut down on capacity, they have a limited amount in which to really secure that profitable period.

I was hoping that if you would look at next summer now, that the prices would be reasonable ... in the $700 range [for a round-trip transatlantic fare from Los Angeles]. You’re seeing prices already at $1,000, and going up.

Q: What do you see happening with domestic coach fares?

A: I believe [the price of] fuel is going to continue to be a major hindrance to being able to lower airfares.... You’re going to see more and more concern at making sure that the price is at a point where they’re making money. So I don’t think we’re looking at great fares, except in soft, non-peak times.

Q: What is the outlook for Hawaii travel?

A: Hawaii is having its absolute banner year. I don’t even know if they can say they have soft periods. [But] March and April are notoriously soft; May is another good month to travel, and November is a good month to travel....

I tell you right now, if you want your head examined, you go after June 10 and return before Sept. 10. Those airfares are going to be anywhere from $50 to $150 more than they are at any other time of the year except for the holiday season.

One of the things that becomes very costly now is interisland airfare. It used to be that inter-island airfare would run you $75; you could get round-trip for $110. It’s now almost $180 round-trip between islands per person. That’s a big chunk of change. So, for example, what I do is I take people on Oahu to two different sides of the island so that they have two different experiences.

Q: Regarding the Caribbean, what do you see as the effect in 2006 of the severe weather that we’ve had in some of the coastal resort areas?

A: People are going to be skeptical to book way in advance in that June to November date.

I think [2005] scared a lot of people ... and forecasts keep saying we’re going to have another banner year again.... You’re going to see a slowing of booking patterns into that region.

Do I think Cancun and the Riviera Maya are going to bounce back? Yes, I don’t have any doubt they will. But the issue is: What’s the consumer going to do?

Q: How much client interest are you seeing in Europe?

A: I’m getting a lot of early bookings already for Italy. I think [2006] is going to be another banner year for Italy. I think it’s going to also be a banner year for Prague, for the Czech Republic.

I think you’re going to see more and more people going into places they haven’t been before ... Bulgaria, Romania, Poland.... I think the former Eastern bloc is going to have a very good year.... You’re seeing more of the small cruise lines visiting some of those ports, and that’s really going to help open up tourism in some of those areas.

Q: What about the unfavorable exchange rate in Europe?

A: The cost is ridiculous. And yet ... I’ve got a group of seven going, I’ve a group of nine going, I have another group of 12 doing a Med cruise. It’s been unbelievable, and everyone is booking anywhere from nine to 12 months out. So there’s no doubt that they’re going.

Q: Why?

A: I think we didn’t travel for two or three years, and people want to go. Americans truly have found that travel is something that is not a luxury. It’s part of their life. And without it, they’re not happy.

Q: What kind of future do you see for travel agents in 2006?

A: I think that the more we’re getting sophisticated and the more the traveler wants, the more there’s a need for retail travel agents.... There is no doubt that nothing on the Internet is going to give you the answers or tell you the quality, what your experience is going to be like.

Q: What else do you see?

A: You’re going to find some very good deals in off-season. I think people should really look at that and take advantage of it.... No. 2 is that you’re going to see some flexibility in programs with hotels and tour operators, which are going to make the cost of some of these adventures a little bit less. And I think that planning is going to be very important for airfare, because my gut feeling is that airfare is not going down.

Jane Engle welcomes comments but can’t respond individually to letters and calls. Write to Travel Insider, L.A. Times, 202 W. 1st St., L.A., CA 90012, or e-mail jane.engle@latimes.com.