Roh Changes Campaign Tactics, Warns of S. Korean Chaos if Opponent Wins

The heated presidential election campaign here has yet to produce a clear-cut front-runner, but already it is generating fears of postelection turmoil.

With less than two weeks left until the Dec. 16 election, Roh Tae Woo, the candidate of the ruling Democratic Justice Party, has switched tactics. Instead of emphasizing a promise to transform South Korea into a democracy, as he did earlier, he is warning that chaos will follow a victory by either of his two chief opponents.

These two, Kim Dae Jung and Kim Young Sam, have both charged that Roh and the government of President Chun Doo Hwan are waging an unfair campaign and that they intend to steal the election.

Diplomats and Korean political analysts fear that even an honest victory by Roh--who, like Chun, is a former army general--would not be accepted by the opposition, which is determined to put an end to 26 years of what it calls military rule.

Specter of Intervention

Further, the specter of intervention by the armed forces has by no means evaporated. A victory by Kim Dae Jung, who describes himself as “the only candidate who rejects a military veto” over the voters’ right to choose whomever they wish for president, would raise fears of such intervention.

A victory by either Roh or Kim Young Sam could precipitate riots in the Cholla region of the southwest, Kim Dae Jung’s home. In Cholla, many people resent what they regard as the neglect of their region by central governments dominated by people from the Kyongsang region in the southeast.

The campaign has become very negative and may turn on how voters react to their fears as much as on anything the candidates might promise.

Roh tried at first to wipe out his image as a clone of Chun by describing himself as a common man with big ears that could hear all the people’s wishes. The early part of his campaign was characterized by lunches and dinners with street-sweepers, taxi drivers and farmers.

Reform Plan Emphasized

Roh also emphasized his proposal of June 29 to give South Korea a democratic form of government and to allow direct election of the president. For years, presidents have been chosen by an electoral college.

Now Roh has switched tactics and is lashing out at his opponents, charging that if either of the two so-called liberal Kims should win, there will be “great upheavals,” with the “leftist forces” that support them “going on a rampage.”

Even at the risk of damaging South Korea’s image overseas, Roh is warning that the 1988 Olympic Games, scheduled to take place in South Korea, will be shifted to another country if one of the two Kims is elected.

“The country would be washed away,” he said on one occasion. “The Olympics would be washed away.”

Worries About Defeat

Roh’s turnabout, political analysts say, stems from worries in the ruling camp that he may not win.

Significantly, Roh has stopped using the name of the Democratic Justice Party at his rallies and on his posters. Many Koreans associate the party with the highly unpopular Chun, since after the 1980 coup that brought him to power, Chun abolished all political organizations and then formed the Democratic Justice Party.

Roh’s apparent unwillingness to be associated with the party has been interpreted as a sign of weakness, and another such sign is his studied silence on his part in the 1979 mutiny in which he, Chun and four other generals ousted the army chief of staff, Gen. Chung Seung Hwa, and seized control of the army. On Nov. 9, former Gen. Chung stunned the ruling party by announcing his support for Kim Young Sam.

Young Voters Absent

The crowds at Roh’s rallies show less spirit than those that turn out for the other major candidates. They are also the most heavily recruited. More than 3,000 buses were used to round up an audience for a speech he delivered in the industrial town of Changwon. Conspicuously absent from his audiences are young people, who represent a third of the voters.

Still, neither of the Kims has been able to establish a clear, commanding lead. About 30% of the voters are said to be still uncommitted.

A first round of televised speeches Wednesday and Thursday appear to have given Roh and a conservative rival, Kim Jong Pil, who was prime minister under the late President Park Chung Hee, an important boost in terms of image. With as many as 15 million people watching and listening, Roh and Kim Jong Pil delivered their 20-minute speeches in a calm and assured manner.

On the other hand, Kim Dae Jung appeared stern, unsmiling and apparently tired. Kim Young Sam, who seems to have little flair for appealing to mass rallies, is nevertheless widely acknowledged to have performed better than Kim Dae Jung.

No Reliable Polls

Although there are no reliable polls in South Korea--the publication of poll results is punishable under law--some secret polls indicate that as few as 600,000 votes could separate the winner from the candidate who finishes third.

These polls reflect agreement on a single point, that Kim Jong Pil is far behind the other three.

Hardly any support based on policy concerns has emerged for any of the three front-runners. Kim Dae Jung, with a solid appeal to the lower class, is the exception, but much of his support can be traced to his Cholla origins.

As one campaign official put it, “The lower class in South Korea is the Cholla people. They are one and the same.”

Near Fanatic Enthusiasm

At rallies Kim Dae Jung draws the largest crowds, and many of his people are nearly fanatic in their enthusiasm. Opposition to him is founded mainly on seven years of government propaganda that he is a radical. But there is also the long-standing discrimination against Cholla natives for imagined deficiencies in personal ethics, along with fears that he will retaliate against the officials in the Chun government and their supporters for sentencing him to death in 1980 on a trumped-up charge of sedition.

The principal beneficiary of Kim Dae Jung’s handicap as a radical from Cholla is Kim Young Sam. His support comes mainly from his native Kyongsang region, the rest from the fact that voters have fewer objections to him than to the others.

A Compromise Choice?

Many see Kim Young Sam as a compromise candidate. A victory by him, they say, would not be likely to result in military intervention or massive student unrest. But there are strong doubts about his ability to lead.

Support for Roh is based largely on fears that either of the liberal Kims would upset the status quo. And doubts that Roh will carry through with his promise of reform are offset somewhat by a feeling that with Roh at the helm, the military will stay in the barracks.

Kim Jong Pil may attract smaller crowds to his rallies, but he is hoping that his personality, as it comes across on television, will help him in the last days of the campaign.

Korean Politics Changing

If nothing else, the campaign appears to have changed the nature of politics in South Korea. Richard L. Walker, who was the U.S. ambassador here through most of Chun’s rule, used to complain that South Korea was a one-issue country.

“All they ever talk about is democracy,” Walker said last year.

But democracy vs. authoritarian rule is no longer the one issue on the agenda. There is a new issue every day.

Candidates on both sides are taking up matters that no one mentioned before. Pork-barrel projects enough to double or triple the national budget have been promised. And except for the opposition’s attacks on the ruling party’s nominee as “another military ruler,” and Roh’s warnings of chaos if the opposition wins, it is difficult to discern any disagreement.

Even Roh has promised to end military rule and eliminate what even he calls “authoritarian rule.”

Personalities Examined

The personalities of the candidates are being examined as never before. And the candidates have responded with baby-kissing, theme songs--”The Battle Hymn of the Republic,” with an appropriate new lyric, is one--family portraits, telephone polls and massive rallies. Wives have started traveling with the candidates, and one of them is even giving speeches.

Questions have been raised about virtually everything from the fee that the government charges for installing a telephone ($300) to raising the status of women and reducing the period of compulsory military service, now 2 1/2 years. Roh and Kim Dae Jung have both proposed to give workers an eight-hour work day in place of the 11-hour day that prevails in many factories here.

Candidates have even promised to loosen security around the president’s residence and allow citizens to visit.

Hong Sook Ja, the only woman in the field of eight candidates, accused the four front-runners of mimicking one another and “confusing the voters without adding any personal color.”

Agriculture an Issue

An issue that may affect relations with the United States is imported agricultural products. All the major candidates have pledged to curtail such imports, although Washington has been pressing for expansion.

Voters may be confused, but they are not uninterested. The campaign has spurred immense enthusiasm--and violence as well. Crowds at even the smallest rallies are estimated in terms of units of tens of thousands.

As the campaign has progressed, so have expectations for the turnout on election day. On Nov. 16, when the campaign officially got under way, it was forecast that 80% or 85% of the 2.9 million voters would vote. Now, according to one unpublished poll, the turnout is likely to be more than 90%.