Pollster Believes Bush Needs a ‘Dramatic Event’

Vice President George Bush, lagging substantially behind Democratic presidential nominee Michael S. Dukakis in the polls, needs to stage a “dramatic event” to regain the momentum in his own campaign for the presidency, Richard B. Wirthlin, President Reagan’s veteran pollster, said Tuesday.

Although polls show that Americans clearly want the next President to be an agent of change, Wirthlin said, Bush’s close ties to Reagan have made it difficult for him to take such a stance. Moreover, he said, Bush has failed to adequately define himself “and where he would take the country,” as he must if he is to win in November.

Wirthlin, outlining Bush’s problems at a luncheon with several columnists and Washington bureau chiefs, urged the journalists to “look for some kind of dramatic event” before the Republican National Convention, which opens in New Orleans on Aug. 15. Bush needs that, he said, “to take the momentum away from Dukakis.”

Choice of Running Mate

While saying he did not know what form such an event might take, Wirthlin suggested that Bush could focus attention on the Republican ticket by announcing his choice of a vice presidential running mate before the convention.

But Bush, resisting the advice of some aides, has insisted that after he decides on a running mate, he wants to keep the selection a secret so that he can announce it at the convention.

Because conventions normally give a boost to the nominees in trial runs with their opponents, the GOP convention can be expected to help Bush improve his standing in the polls. But Wirthlin apparently is concerned that Bush could be so far behind when the convention is held that even a boost would leave him trailing.

Dukakis Hikes Lead

The last five GOP conventions have resulted in Republican nominees gaining an average of 6 percentage points in their trial runs against their Democratic opponents, according to polls taken by Wirthlin. The most recent Gallup poll, taken on the three days following the Democratic convention and being released today, shows Dukakis leading by 17 points, 54% to 37%. That was up from a 6-point lead--47% to 41%--before the convention.

Bush still has plenty of time to better define himself for the American public and overtake Dukakis, Wirthlin said. He noted that at this stage of his campaign in 1980, Reagan had an image of “a B-grade actor, a conservative, a Westerner who didn’t grasp what the presidency is all about.”

Asked whether he expected Bush to select a running mate with whom he is compatible, Wirthlin said: “No, I expect him to make a cold, calculated decision as to who can help him the most politically.” He suggested that two of the candidates Bush defeated in the primaries--Sen. Bob Dole of Kansas and Rep. Jack Kemp of New York--are leading candidates for the No. 2 spot.

‘Wild Card’ Possible

Bush might settle on a “wild card” choice, such as Sen. Alan K. Simpson of Wyoming or former Tennessee Gov. Lamar Alexander, Wirthlin said. But he added: “I wouldn’t go for a wild card if I were him.”

One possible long-shot candidate, New Hampshire Gov. John H. Sununu, said Tuesday that Bush had asked him to fill out a questionnaire that is being used in the search for a running mate.

Sununu, who is co-chairman of Bush’s presidential campaign, said “yes” when asked by a reporter in Concord if he had received such a form. He would not elaborate.

The New Hampshire governor said he still supports Gov. George Deukmejian of California for the second spot on the ticket, even though Deukmejian has said he does not want the job.

A spokesman for the California governor said Tuesday that Bush did not send any forms to Deukmejian, but that was no surprise in view of the governor’s lack of interest in the job.