U.S. Stockpiles Expected to Drop Sharply by Spring : Drought Jeopardizes Winter Wheat Crop

This year’s winter wheat crop, planted last autumn, is being threatened as drought conditions continue in one of the world’s most vital grain growing regions--the Midwest’s wheat belt.

With worldwide wheat supplies already at a 14-year low and drought affecting other wheat producing areas in Canada, Argentina and China, concern is mounting among farmers and economists alike over the continuing lack of snow and rain.

American wheat supplies have been cut sharply both by an aggressive export program and by last year’s drought. U.S. stockpiles are expected to drop to about 533 million bushels by spring, less than half what they were last spring.

Although there is still time for rainfall to save the crop, “a drought of any significance will mean supplies will be tight,” said Edwin Young, a U.S. Agriculture Department economist.

Winter wheat is used primarily for bread, and because American wheat is generally of such high quality, it is purchased by foreign countries and blended with lower quality grain to improve the nutrient value. A shortage could have a small impact on the price of bread in the United States but higher priced wheat would prove worrisome for poorer countries where wheat is a major source of food.

“The drought is definitely continuing in the wheat belt,” said Mike Smith, president of WeatherData, The Times’ weather consultants. “In fact, it is far worse now than it was last summer.”

The National Weather Service predicts continued dry weather through January in the drought pocket, which includes the western two-thirds of Kansas--the nation’s most productive wheat-growing state--the southwestern corner of Nebraska, parts of West Texas, Oklahoma, South Dakota and Montana.

While there is no debate that the drought is continuing, there are differences of opinion about its potential impact. Agricultural experts and farmers in wheat-producing states are far more concerned than those in Washington.

“I think (wheat farmers) are already looking at crop loss,” said Jim Shroyer, Kansas’ extension agronomist. “I think they’re already looking at a good 10% to 15% yield loss. The wheat looks as bad as I’ve seen it in 10 years.”

“It’s not looking very good,” said Kenny Bloom, 62, who helps farm 2,000 acres of wheat near Scott City, Kan. “It’s dry. We just ain’t had no moisture. You have to go clear back into the ‘30s to see something like this.”

“In my opinion the condition of the crop is precarious in the eastern two-thirds of the state,” said Moe Johnson, Kansas’ agricultural statistician.

“We still have a couple of months before (wheat) dormancy is going to be broken, but the odds are that we won’t have enough moisture between now and then,” said Kenneth G. Hubbard, Nebraska’s state climatologist.

“The signs are ominous,” said Donald Wilhite, a University of Nebraska drought researcher.

“It’s just simply too early to start talking about that crop,” countered Norton D. Strommen, the U.S. Agriculture Department’s chief meteorologist in Washington. “It’s been stressed, but it hasn’t really been hurt, and we haven’t had the type of weather conducive to causing major deterioration in terms of yield potential.”

Snow Is Vital

Winter wheat is a particularly hardy crop grown in semi-arid regions of the high plains east of the Rocky Mountains. Because rain is sparse even in normal times, wheat farmers generally leave half of their land fallow each year so the ground can store up enough moisture to sustain a crop.

While drought was detected throughout most of the country beginning last winter, it did not emerge as a problem in wheat-producing areas until last autumn when the winter wheat crop was being planted.

Because rainfall was below normal “there is some wheat that hasn’t even come out of the ground yet and it’s been planted since September,” said Shroyer.

In addition to needing moisture to germinate, snow is vital to the small wheat plants’ winter survival. A snow cover acts as a blanket, keeping the plants and the ground up to 10 degrees warmer. This is vital insulation during harsh January and February weather.

Snow also acts as a buffer to protect the young wheat plants from the bitter winter winds that blow across the Midwestern plains. Without a snow cover, wind-borne sand and dust “sandblast” the plants, destroying their leaves.

Lack of snow cover also allows the wind to desiccate plant leaves. But there is still time for the plants to survive the dry winter. “Rains this spring could bring it back,” said Shroyer. “If we have a late spring and get lots of moisture that would be perfect.”

The drought last year reduced the 1988 harvest by 28%, the President’s Interagency Drought Policy Committee said Friday in its final report on the disaster. The drop in corn yields, the nation’s biggest crop, was the largest since the 1930s Dust Bowl days while the drop in soybean yields were the largest in 60 years. In all, lost production was valued at $13 billion.

Harvest of timber from public lands may have to be reduced for the next 10 to 20 years, the task force reported, to allow time for forests to recover from the more than 73,000 fires that burned over 5 million acres and for drought-weakened trees to recover from insect infestations and disease.

Drought will also have a long-term impact on wildlife, particularly waterfowl. For example the task force reported that there was a 53% decline in breeding pairs of ducks on the northern prairies and a 75% drop in the number of ducklings hatched.

Farmers in some parts of the Midwest could still feel effects of the drought during the spring planting season, the report warned. “Parts of the Northern Plains and Western corn belt will very likely enter the 1989 crop planting period with significant soil moisture deficits.”

On a positive note the report concludes, “There is no evidence that the drought has changed the long-term tendency for agricultural productivity to outpace the growth in demand for farm products.”