Report Says County Could Reap 20,000 Jobs From Trade Pact

If the North American Free Trade Agreement is enacted, it would generate 20,000 jobs in San Diego County within 15 years, a university study found.

San Diego County’s sales of goods to Mexico could jump by 20% to 30% over the first 15 years of the agreement, according to research by Southwestern College’s Small Business Development and International Trade Center.

“San Diego is well-placed to become a center of U.S.-Mexican trade and to reap the benefits--as well as sidestep the drawbacks--of the expected increase in border activity,” the university’s report concluded.

The study released Wednesday is among the first attempts by researchers to measure the regional impact of the proposed treaty, which needs approval of Congress and its counterparts in Mexico and Canada.

Critics, especially labor groups, have said the trade pact will encourage U.S. companies to move their factories to Mexico, where they could pay lower wages. But President Bush and his trade negotiators have said the agreement would bring more jobs and prosperity to the United States.

The San Diego area now exports to Mexico goods and services worth about $1 billion a year, or 10% of San Diego’s gross regional product.

The Southwestern College report said San Diego County businesses generally would benefit from free trade, but fruit and vegetable producers and some retailers near the border might suffer from the competition.

And the report included another down side: There could be a shortage of money to build roads, border crossings and other infrastructure needed to accommodate increased trade. Maintaining the region’s environmental, health and safety standards also might be difficult, the report said.