GOP Abortion-Rights Conflict Could Shape Primaries in 3 States : Senate races today in Michigan, Kansas and Georgia may turn on divisive issue.

The battle over abortion that has triggered much of the controversy among Republicans crafting the party’s platform in San Diego will move to the grass roots today] as GOP voters in three states settle primaries that offer stark contrasts on the divisive issue.

In Kansas, Michigan and Georgia, Republicans will be voting for Senate nominees. In the process, they will be sending signals about the balance of power within the party.

All three races pit a candidate who supports abortion rights against another who believes abortion should be banned. In all three states, the candidate who opposes legalized abortion appears to have the upper hand, though some polls show the abortion-rights supporters still within reach in both Kansas and Michigan.

The clashes over abortion have been much more sharp in Michigan and Georgia than in Kansas; but in each contest, abortion has emerged as one of the few clear distinctions between the candidates--and a rallying point for conservative social groups mobilizing in the campaigns.

In that regard, these races typify an emerging pattern in Republican primaries. With almost all Republican candidates running as fiscal conservatives, abortion--and to a lesser extent other noneconomic issues such as gun control--are becoming a central line of demarcation in party primaries.

“One thing that has happened over the past 10 or 15 years is that to an increasing extent conservatism and moderation is increasingly a function solely of abortion, and only secondarily on issues like taxes,” says Stu Rothenberg, the editor of a political newsletter in Washington.

Even among GOP primary voters, opinion is closely divided on abortion. Network exit polls of self-identified Republicans voting in the party’s presidential primaries this spring, for instance, found that only 41% said the GOP platform should maintain its call for a constitutional ban on abortion; 55% opposed maintaining the antiabortion plank.

But Republican political operatives believe that antiabortion candidates generally enjoy an advantage in Republican primaries in most states. That’s because abortion opponents are a more organized force in GOP politics than abortion-rights supporters, and more likely to vote solely on that issue.

In Georgia, for example, Republican primary voters divide almost evenly on whether abortion should remain legal, says Whit Ayres, a pollster in Atlanta. “But the numbers are not the critical point: The critical point is the intensity, which is all with the abortion opponents,” says Ayres, who works for abortion opponent Guy Millner, the favorite in today’s primary.

But Republican candidates who support abortion rights are becoming increasingly assertive about using the issue to rally more moderate voters. In the Georgia primary, former state Rep. Johnny Isakson stunned many party observers by running a television ad trumpeting his support for abortion rights and accusing Millner and another rival of seeking to make “criminals out of women and their doctors.”

That gambit helped Isakson attract enough support from suburban Atlanta voters to make today’s runoff against Millner, a conservative businessman who was the GOP’s losing nominee in the 1994 gubernatorial race. But polls late last week showed Millner holding a solid 8-percentage-point advantage in a race that has virtually disappeared into the media black hole of the Atlanta Olympics.

“You find Republicans who support abortion rights becoming much bolder in putting that position forward,” says Carol Long, director of the National Right to Life Political Action Committee. “But I think this year will prove that isn’t a good strategy.”

Actually, the evidence so far is mixed. Supporters of abortion rights have won contested Republican Senate primaries this year in Maine, New Jersey and Virginia, while abortion opponents won contested primaries in Illinois and Iowa. Abortion, however, was not the decisive issue in all of those races.

More Republican Senate primaries that divide the candidates on abortion are coming later this summer in Colorado, Wyoming and Rhode Island.

Today’s votes could tilt the balance toward abortion opponents.

The Michigan Senate primary pits Ronna Romney, a talk show host and former daughter-in-law of the late Michigan Gov. George Romney, against Jim Nicholson, a chemical company executive making his first bid for public office. Late polls show Romney holding a razor-thin lead over Nicholson, who has gained ground steadily with an advertising barrage in the last few weeks.

The campaign has turned spectacularly negative--to the point where leading Republicans are publicly wailing over the relentless personal attacks each candidate is broadcasting against the other. “We’ve kind of entered a phase where issues are secondary,” said David B. Hill, a Republican pollster working for Nicholson.

Before the race detoured into personal attacks, Romney had placed most of her chips on her opposition to abortion. Both candidates take conservative positions on most issues, but Nicholson believes abortion should remain legal; Romney has called for a constitutional amendment to ban abortion, with exceptions only when the life of the mother is endangered.

Romney attacked Nicholson for his position in television ads and even proposed a debate solely on abortion. And she is relying heavily on her support from the politically potent Michigan Right to Life organization.

“She seems almost to be putting all her eggs in one basket,” said William S. Ballenger, editor of the Inside Michigan Politics newsletter.

Romney may be stressing the issue so much because she knows the power of abortion in a Michigan primary. In the 1994 Senate primary, when Romney ran against Spencer Abraham, she held an early advantage, but Abraham wiped out that lead largely by accusing her of privately supporting abortion rights. In a late ad barrage, Abraham, who won election to the Senate that fall, said Romney held a position of “multiple choice” on abortion. Nicholson has reprised those accusations this summer.

Though Romney’s appeal to women somewhat scrambles the equation, voter attitudes toward the candidates largely follow their views about abortion. Hill says that about 80% of Republican voters who oppose abortion rights are supporting Romney, while about 75% of Republicans who believe abortion should remain legal are backing Nicholson.

If Nicholson overtakes Romney today, it would upend years of conventional wisdom that no Republican unacceptable to right-to-life forces could win a GOP primary in Michigan. “If you can beat right-to-life in Michigan, you can beat any right-to-life organization, because they are probably the best,” Hill said.

Though it appears less likely, a victory for Isakson in Georgia, where evangelical conservatives are plentiful and well organized, would be even more head-turning. Isakson has hedged his bets somewhat on abortion, criticizing Millner for not moving to evict an abortion clinic from a building he owned. But Isakson has also angrily picked a fight with the Christian Coalition over a voter guide that highlighted his opposition to banning abortion.

“For an organization that is pro-family and Christian for one second to allude that a guy who’s been married to the same woman for 28 years, has three kids and has taught Sunday school for 18 years is not Christian enough for their litmus test is an offense to me,” he said.

Of the three races on tap today, abortion has been the least visible in Kansas. While Brownback proposes to ban abortion and Frahm would keep it legal, both sides have primarily focused on other issues. Brownback has devoted most of his energy to painting his opponent as a big taxer who supported more than $500 million in taxes while a state legislator. Frahm is running ads saying Brownback’s support for the flat tax would eliminate the popular deductions for mortgages and charitable contributions.

But the Kansas race is still dividing along much the same lines as the contests in Michigan and Georgia. Frahm is relying on support from moderate elements, such as retiring Sen. Nancy Landon Kassebaum, while Brownback is drawing strength from grass-roots conservative activists, including evangelical Christians. Late polls diverge, with some still showing a close race and others indicating that Brownback is pulling away.