Kemp Means California Won’t Be Ignored This Time

The California delegation to the Republican National Convention performed the political equivalent of the Macarena, a new dance craze--everybody in line, swinging in unison, if not in total harmony, to the same tune.

That’s a far cry from their performance at the 1992 convention in Houston. Then, rank-and-file delegates, who opposed the party’s harsh anti-abortion rights platform, sat in dispirited, angry silence, as Gov. Pete Wilson pleaded with them, via satellite from Sacramento, where he and Democratic legislators were locked in a protracted budget battle, to behave. They did; they lost in November.

California Republicans have learned well the lessons of Houston; they know what can happen when a fractured party summarily abandons a key state. Fearful of another electoral drubbing this year, they navigated a different convention course.

The route was laid out even before the delegates arrived in San Diego. Where it would lead was hinted by the delegation’s makeup. It was more moderate, more diverse, more pro-choice than most. And it was certainly more reflective of California’s general electorate than the state’s Houston contingent.

Its direction was set, too, in the relatively smooth negotiations on the state budget, which moved Wilson and his GOP legislative allies toward the electoral center on several issues of voter concern, and in the maneuvering over the platform’s abortion language, guided by Wilson’s highly visible defense of abortion rights. For most California delegates, hard-right turns into the fall campaign were to be avoided.

The delegation went to San Diego whistling, with fingers crossed, past the ’96 presidential election. They left emboldened and energized. They’re now working from two road maps, one for the fall, and one to guide them up to the state elections in 1998, or into the next presidential race.

There’s general agreement that the new energy pulsing through California’s delegation can be attributed to Bob Dole’s choice of quasi-Californian Jack F. Kemp as his running mate. It was, said one delegation observer, “like giving water to a thirsty person.”

There was “some unhappiness with Kemp” among pro-choice Republican women, because of his pro-life stance. But, as one moderate put it, “Kemp is the one guy in the party . . . whom pro-life conservatives and Republicans like me can be happy about.”

Conservatives appear to be genuinely happy. Reports from Orange County, a linchpin in the Republican strategy to take California, indicate that major GOP contributors are beginning to show their enthusiasm by opening their wallets. Assembly Speaker Curt Pringle (R-Garden Grove) said he “feel[s] very comfortable” with Kemp.

That’s why, from here on out, Dole’s California campaign will look a lot like Kemp. “Kemp’s gonna live in California,” Dole’s campaign chief, Scott Reed, told “60 Minutes.” Dole, presumably, will spend more of his time around his Florida condo.

Already, Kemp has begun morphing into a Golden State Republican. He used his San Diego pulpit to recant his earlier stands on the California-grown issues of illegal immigration and affirmative action; he now endorses tough curbs on illegal immigrants and the “California civil rights initiative” on the November ballot. That has helped mollify conservatives, while removing from the table an embarrassing division of opinion between the party’s nominees.

Kemp’s addition to the ticket, Pringle said, “helps my job” to retain the GOP majority in the Assembly. Ken L. Khachigian, Dole’s California campaign chief, is talking about an infusion of $17 million into the state’s GOP campaign coffers. That could make a real difference in down-ballot races. It would be a boon to several politicians who are already using 1996 to launch future political plans.

The general consensus is that Atty. Gen. Dan Lungren came out of San Diego the big California winner. A friend of both Kemp and Dole and a darling of conservatives, Lungren basked in the media’s glow even as Wilson was banished, temporarily, from the podium at the height of Dole’s pique over the governor’s abortion-rights campaign. This convention clearly marked the passing of the torch of the state’s GOP leadership from the term-limited Wilson to Lungren, the party’s likely ’98 gubernatorial nominee.

San Diego Mayor Susan Golding appears to have generated some political heat of her own. She’s being touted by some as a possible GOP challenger to Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer in 1998.

But what about Wilson? The early spin labeled him a loser. Indeed, had he not misjudged public reaction to his broken campaign pledge to forego presidential politics; had he not declared and stumbled so early, and had he not rained on Dole’s nomination by keeping the abortion-rights controversy afloat, he “coulda been a contendah,” either for vice president or as the party’s alternative if Dole stumbled.

But nobody who received the media attention that Wilson did after Dole’s snub can be a political loser. One of the lasting images of the convention will be Wilson, the champion of the party’s pro-choicers, racing from TV network skybox to TV network skybox. Then, in a symbolic gesture of conciliation, he was tapped to introduce Elizabeth H. Dole in prime time.

That kind of exposure could help his poll numbers at home. It could also lead to some interesting positioning for 2000 (assuming he really means “no” to a 1998 Senate race).

Whether this year’s Republican ticket wins or loses, Kemp may have checkmated Wilson’s future presidential ambitions, and possibly anybody else’s. Still, there may be an opening, in 2000, for a leader of the party’s pro-choice wing. Coming off the ’96 convention, Wilson can begin to position himself to run as the abortion-rights candidate. Unlike other possible pro-choice contenders, including Colin L. Powell and Gov. Christine Todd Whitman, Wilson stands in relatively good stead with the party’s conservative wing. But four years from San Diego is far into the political future.

What might that future hold? Before the GOP met in San Diego last week, California had hosted three national nominating conventions since 1960. That year, the Democrats nominated John F. Kennedy in Los Angeles. In 1964, the GOP tapped Barry Goldwater in San Francisco. The Democrats assembled in San Francisco in 1984 to nominate Walter F. Mondale.

Kennedy was the only one of the three candidates to make it to the White House. None of them went on to take the state in the November election.

Now Dole has been California-crowned. Can he break the state’s nominating jinx? That depends on whether the Republicans, their national ticket and state party can continue to boogie in line and on message. And whether Bill Clinton missteps along the way.